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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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Going to ignore the models for another day or so and go with tele's... totally going to blow this.

Possible -AO tank(2010), like that artic injection that came in on 12z GFS that @Penn State pointed out.

firefox_ktY3JCURmH.thumb.png.6638771821e08b3d943db99a44c55dd2.png

firefox_SltONlWomM.thumb.png.8b1a728adb8dec195afb1a4972251911.png

-NAO

firefox_TBzfWE5Yge.thumb.png.9bc0f5792e790b105e9fbd2660958d66.png

+PNA

firefox_LK2CLUJVxk.thumb.png.b917de32b9b5447aa16405b682c9364f.png

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Well.. the 00z is quite a mess. There’s a whole bunch of action everywhere.. but none of it is organized in any reasonable or particularly likable way.. You have a clipper, southern stream energy.. more southern stream energy.. cold air injection that once delivered snow to Mexico City, and now it’s singing Oh Canada barely able to cross the northern border. The other major model(s).. at the least the CMC.. is in a different time zone. Fire all the models. Start over. 😂 PS..I’m not actually upset now.. it’s just laughable. giphy-downsized.gif.e7b0f9f45ec65f6951f3d89e1319699e.gif

Edited by Penn State
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10 hours ago, TLChip said:

Going to ignore the models for another day or so and go with tele's... totally going to blow this.

Possible -AO tank(2010), like that artic injection that came in on 12z GFS that @Penn State pointed out.

firefox_ktY3JCURmH.thumb.png.6638771821e08b3d943db99a44c55dd2.png

firefox_SltONlWomM.thumb.png.8b1a728adb8dec195afb1a4972251911.png

-NAO

firefox_TBzfWE5Yge.thumb.png.9bc0f5792e790b105e9fbd2660958d66.png

+PNA

firefox_LK2CLUJVxk.thumb.png.b917de32b9b5447aa16405b682c9364f.png

A prudent approach - the MJO is in Ph8 on these dates - so add that to the mix

 

WPC thoughts: 

As the mean surface low tracks into the Atlantic, the influx of low-level moisture increases the potential for heavy precipitation over the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic which is reflected in the PETs in the backend of the period. To capture the synoptic evolution, a pair of slight risks of heavy precipitation are posted, one focused over southeastern Texas and Louisiana for Feb 15-17, and the other extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the lower Eastern Seaboard for Feb 17-20. With anomalously cold temperatures favored to be in place, high elevation heavy snow is possible later in the period over the southern Appalachians which is marginally supported by the GEFS SWE tool. No corresponding hazards are issued at this time due to uncertainty at this lead, but any snow potential over the eastern CONUS will be monitored in upcoming outlooks.

 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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15 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

SSSSSSSHHHH! 

 

image.thumb.png.319496f8ba9e659379fadcb9b9e4de11.png

Now.. If only that could have happened last night while I was up model watching lol Nice run.. let’s lock that one in. 

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Just a check-up of the ensembles at 00z. There's definitely a signal, albeit mostly S+E. Will the 06z runs prove to be fools gold again today? Or.. will it be the start of something more solid? 

models-2024020800-f300.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.6c66d9e9dbf498ce2eb6ffb9f108eb35.gif

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48 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Staying south this run.. and worlds different than the Canadian. 

floop-gfs-2024020812.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.559c26a7950236f73696f6591aa32dff.gif

Safer spot to be at this point, when the northward shift in models occur it won't be as painful.

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