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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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14 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0933 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia to western New Jersey

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 170333Z - 170730Z

   SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to
   spread east across parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate snowfall continues to spread east
   from the upper OH River Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic based on
   recent regional reflectivity composites. Transient organized snow
   bands continue to be observed within this broader zone, resulting in
   visibility reductions from 1/2 to 1/4 mile and steady snowfall
   accumulations based on recent snow reports from the region.
   Favorable phasing of synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching
   shortwave trough and strong isentropic and frontogenetic lift within
   the 925-700 mb layer, which has been driving this activity so far,
   is expected to persist as the system pushes towards the East Coast
   over the next several hours. Latest forecast guidance depicts
   reasonably high probability in snowfall rates between 1-2 inch/hour
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (and possibly as far east
   as the NJ coast) through 08 UTC. Based on observed trends, this
   depiction seems fairly reasonable. One caveat is a lingering
   warm/dry layer below 850 mb sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings and
   noted in surface observations across northern MD, southeast PA, and
   into western NJ, which may limit snowfall rates in the near term.
   However, a combination of evaporative cooling and persistent
   mesoscale ascent along the warm frontal zone should support adequate
   low-level saturation/cooling to allow for moderate to heavy snowfall
   in the coming hours.

   ..Moore.. 02/17/2024

 

 

I can attest that the lingering warm layer is near completely over come by rates 

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Blows being down by the equator in DC area. How did they fack this one up? Supposed to snow first here, now we got that weird thangy look going on north. It’s like a reverse comma shape b/s. What up with that. And it’s like 72 here. Now we need like 9 inch per hour rates to overcome. And they brined everywhere, including the bar floors. 

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1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Blows being down by the equator in DC area. How did they fack this one up? Supposed to snow first here, now we got that weird thangy look going on north. It’s like a reverse comma shape b/s. What up with that. And it’s like 72 here. Now we need like 9 inch per hour rates to overcome. And they brined everywhere, including the bar floors. 

gettin slobber knocked here RN. O yeah, it's also snowing pretty hard outside. Dud I eber ell you how mcuh I like Hennesee? (lmfao)  

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It's been snowing lightly with very fine flakes here for a bit, but at 40 degrees it doesn't even stick in the grass. Unless there is some sort of robust redevelopment, I can't see us reaching what Sterling is calling for us to get. Not even sure if we'll get the 2.5" that we'd need to tie our record for our largest snow of the winter.

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5 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

I’m on the 29th floor and it ain't snowing aloft. Evac me from here!

Jump!

Then there'll be at least one flake on the ground. 😛

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