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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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Just now, Wtkidz said:

Never thought this would be anything more than 1-3 or maybe 2-4.  And I’m generally at the low end . 

More than likely a general 1-3" for most then areas who get heavier precip 3-5" with spots of 6"+

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Just now, Paletitsnow63 said:

18Z ICON snowmap

 

 

Crap, starting to get in the bullseye again for this one, what could possibly go wrong tomorrow night/Saturday morning. 🙄

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Both the ICON and HRRR seem to be creating a pocket of heavier snow over the Atlantic that the Euro wasn't. Without being aware of this system's nuances (busy doing stupid things; spent 90 minutes alone unsuccessfully trying to fix a printer), I wonder if that would translate to more snow over land to the west or north.

Edited by LiveWire_13
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1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

This low pressure is further south than modeled  so what will that end up affecting ?

 

image.jpeg.c89d0e0c7164531de234d115a14ef607.jpeg

The LP over Texas?  I think the one that is headed our way is currently the LP over SE Wyoming.

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4 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

This low pressure is further south than modeled  so what will that end up affecting ?

 

image.jpeg.c89d0e0c7164531de234d115a14ef607.jpeg

I just checked, there are a few models ( i know for sure GFS) that had this LP at the exact spot it is in now so maybe just model differences

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Special Weather Statement

Until Thu 7 pm EST

1 of 2

Action Recommended

Avoid the subject event as per the instructions

Issued By

Baltimore/Washington - MD, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Stafford County

Description

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four or five inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning.
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1 hour ago, Wtkidz said:

Then my mistake. I never said I knew what was doing. 
 

this confused me.

image.png.e974bc6e07bdf34a951a3ed0f6b34621.png

The storm for Friday night is currently actually in the Dakotas (edit - see revision below) . It is the one shown in Red tomorrow at 00z, then in TX in Green 12 hours (7 a.m. tomorrow), then in TN at 7 p.m. tomorrow, etc. 

 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The storm for Friday night is currently actually in the Dakotas. It is the one shown in Red tomorrow at 00z, then in TX in Green 12 hours (7 a.m. tomorrow), then in TN at 7 p.m. tomorrow, etc. 

 

..Plains to Mid-MS Valley to Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Days 1-2... Combination of a mid-level trough extending southwest out of the Upper Midwest and a shortwave exiting the central/southern Rockies will carry a surface low out of the southern Plains eastward across the Mid-South tomorrow evening and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Sat. To the north of the low, transition from rain to snow will occur deeper into the colder air, with banded snow aided by an advancing arc of FGEN will

Spoiler

promote light to locally moderate snow, extending from the SD/NE border tonight across the Corn Belt and along the I-70 corridor from MO eastward to Ohio. Highest totals will likely fall along the SD/NE line this evening then skipping across the Midwest to the central Appalachians where upslope into eastern WV may promote totals in excess of 6 inches. SLRs will trend from near/below 10:1 on the southern side to over 15:1 on the northern side, with higher values where more energetic lift into a favorable DGZ occurs. SREF probs of >50mb in the DGZ shows this nicely along the axis of highest snow totals. D1 probs of >4" snow are highest over southern SD into northern NE, though generally <60%. Second area with >10% probabilities of at least 4" lie from eastern MO eastward to the southern half of Ohio (10-30%), but then much higher probabilities into eastern WV, the MD panhandle, and into the Laurel Highlands where values exceed 50%. Low to moderate probabilities (20-50%) extend eastward along the PA Turnpike (more or less between I-70 and I-80) to eastern PA following along the highest probabilities of favorable FGEN and snow growth. Lower probabilities continue eastward into NJ.

Also - so as to not muddy things further. The storm has moved out of the Upper MW and is, in fact, close to being in S Colorado at present. The maps showed it there by 00z which is 7 pm our time, tonight 

image.thumb.png.b78a55525860d1ae1033696ffdcb6ecf.png

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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