LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Wtkidz said: Never thought this would be anything more than 1-3 or maybe 2-4. And I’m generally at the low end . More than likely a general 1-3" for most then areas who get heavier precip 3-5" with spots of 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 For the 15th thread but looks like today’s clipper system could incorporate some squall activity later today W to E across PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) Carrying some water... Can maybe get a quick sip while down "souf" I'd imagine the Clipper tonight's job is to help hold some semblance of cold air over the region. Edited February 15 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18Z ICON snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Paletitsnow63 said: 18Z ICON snowmap Crap, starting to get in the bullseye again for this one, what could possibly go wrong tomorrow night/Saturday morning. 🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) Both the ICON and HRRR seem to be creating a pocket of heavier snow over the Atlantic that the Euro wasn't. Without being aware of this system's nuances (busy doing stupid things; spent 90 minutes alone unsuccessfully trying to fix a printer), I wonder if that would translate to more snow over land to the west or north. Edited February 15 by LiveWire_13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, LUCC said: 18z NAM 12k more north and juicier compared to 12z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This low pressure is further south than modeled so what will that end up affecting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Wtkidz said: This low pressure is further south than modeled so what will that end up affecting ? The LP over Texas? I think the one that is headed our way is currently the LP over SE Wyoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: This low pressure is further south than modeled so what will that end up affecting ? I just checked, there are a few models ( i know for sure GFS) that had this LP at the exact spot it is in now so maybe just model differences 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Paletitsnow63 said: The LP over Texas? I think the one that is headed our way is currently the LP over SE Wyoming. No its the one over Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Then my mistake. I never said I knew what was doing. this confused me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS the most south of all the models at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, LUCC said: GFS the most south of all the models at this point. I know this cannot happen as there is a anti snow dome in my county…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Special Weather Statement Until Thu 7 pm EST 1 of 2 Action Recommended Avoid the subject event as per the instructions Issued By Baltimore/Washington - MD, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Stafford County Description ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four or five inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Sorry bout this. Snow , i guess follows me. Near DC , moving my son 😀. Rest easy fackers knowing a son of mine is in charge of nuclear missile defense 😀😀😀. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LUCC said: South shore of li may be the NY metro winners for a change. Bit of added atl moisture added as the low hits the waters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: Then my mistake. I never said I knew what was doing. this confused me. The storm for Friday night is currently actually in the Dakotas (edit - see revision below) . It is the one shown in Red tomorrow at 00z, then in TX in Green 12 hours (7 a.m. tomorrow), then in TN at 7 p.m. tomorrow, etc. Edited February 15 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The storm for Friday night is currently actually in the Dakotas. It is the one shown in Red tomorrow at 00z, then in TX in Green 12 hours (7 a.m. tomorrow), then in TN at 7 p.m. tomorrow, etc. ..Plains to Mid-MS Valley to Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Days 1-2... Combination of a mid-level trough extending southwest out of the Upper Midwest and a shortwave exiting the central/southern Rockies will carry a surface low out of the southern Plains eastward across the Mid-South tomorrow evening and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Sat. To the north of the low, transition from rain to snow will occur deeper into the colder air, with banded snow aided by an advancing arc of FGEN will Spoiler promote light to locally moderate snow, extending from the SD/NE border tonight across the Corn Belt and along the I-70 corridor from MO eastward to Ohio. Highest totals will likely fall along the SD/NE line this evening then skipping across the Midwest to the central Appalachians where upslope into eastern WV may promote totals in excess of 6 inches. SLRs will trend from near/below 10:1 on the southern side to over 15:1 on the northern side, with higher values where more energetic lift into a favorable DGZ occurs. SREF probs of >50mb in the DGZ shows this nicely along the axis of highest snow totals. D1 probs of >4" snow are highest over southern SD into northern NE, though generally <60%. Second area with >10% probabilities of at least 4" lie from eastern MO eastward to the southern half of Ohio (10-30%), but then much higher probabilities into eastern WV, the MD panhandle, and into the Laurel Highlands where values exceed 50%. Low to moderate probabilities (20-50%) extend eastward along the PA Turnpike (more or less between I-70 and I-80) to eastern PA following along the highest probabilities of favorable FGEN and snow growth. Lower probabilities continue eastward into NJ. Also - so as to not muddy things further. The storm has moved out of the Upper MW and is, in fact, close to being in S Colorado at present. The maps showed it there by 00z which is 7 pm our time, tonight Edited February 15 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21z SREF 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: 21z SREF w/trends clearly juicing up - no surprise given HH NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Winter storm watch up for western and parts of Northern MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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