Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Paletitsnow63 said: 12Z GFS snow map. Looks like totals increased across the area. Another model shifts N overall, still delivers for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks like GFS is showing a short window of enhancement (SE PA, S NJ, DE, E MD) just when SLP hits the coast. 6Z vs 12Z comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z Snow map with ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z GGEM not as robust with snow as other 12Z models but an increase over 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yes I know these are not the best. onset times worst case least amount expected and unlikely but possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Found this on another forum…… Thundersnow incoming? From 1023 AFDLWX: Some lightning was being detected over southern Missouri, indicating elevated instability and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an incoming jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Swear the storms gonna just go north of me… well it has to start and end somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Found this on another forum…… Thundersnow incoming? From 1023 AFDLWX: Some lightning was being detected over southern Missouri, indicating elevated instability and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an incoming jet streak. Yes, I posted the SPC Convection Outlook D1, a few pages back. I was making that point about it bringing more "juice" due to the convective nature of the incoming parcels. Edited February 16 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gardyloo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We got about 3 inches overnight, sometime the snow was intense (I was driving in it at one point and it was snow tunnel driving). But I think that's all we get from this system. Main portion going much farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Swear the storms gonna just go north of me… well it has to start and end somewhere. Wtkidz, it looks like you are in line for a couple of inches, correct? Really hoping for your sake you get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Gardyloo said: We got about 3 inches overnight, sometime the snow was intense (I was driving in it at one point and it was snow tunnel driving). But I think that's all we get from this system. Main portion going much farther south. I'm Confused You speaking of two different systems - the clipper from last night and then mentioning this one? Or are you only speaking about last night? Or are you saying you think last night and tonight are the same? Your location suggests you got last night's clipper - (light snow even as far S as Clapper and Me in C PA) and that you're "farther south" reference is to this one tonight. Is that correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gardyloo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I'm Confused You speaking of two different systems - the clipper from last night and then mentioning this one? Or are you only speaking about last night? Or are you saying you think last night and tonight are the same? Your location suggests you got last night's clipper - (light snow even as far S as Clapper and Me in C PA) and that you're "farther south" reference is to this one tonight. Is that correct? I got the clipper, so yes, I am speaking of the other one, my apologies. We also got a nice band of lake effect. Just to confuse things more. (should of been in the clipper thread which I hadn't noticed) Edited February 16 by Gardyloo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, CandO100 said: Wtkidz, it looks like you are in line for a couple of inches, correct? Really hoping for your sake you get some. Thanks I am very used as the rain snow line seems to run right through our area even with a Miller system. Unless we have perfect track we tend to have mixing issues. It will depend on thermals. I just enjoy tracking weather . This one has been fun for me as it wasn’t as hectic as many storms in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 49 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: As an admitted snow weenie, my definition of "worst case" is significantly different than the NWS. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 1 hour ago, Paletitsnow63 said: 12Z GGEM not as robust with snow as other 12Z models but an increase over 0Z Some of that has to do with ratios, that’s 10:1 while the others are kuchera, northern ratios are higher. edit: I noticed some of your maps from last page are 10:1 as well, my mistake. Edited February 16 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The Professor also has this north "trend" and two distinct axises of hvr snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 These tick toggle norths are starting to get me nervous. This MD liner would like a nice finish to the winter season. Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: They callin this a clipper but it's not really. It's more of a hybrid between a clipper and a standard over-running event. Clips don't often get ANY help from the S jet and this, as we've shown, gets a piece of the STJ moisture. Asking just so I’m not mixing them up Clipper = norther stream energy typically moving towards the south-east. Typically under 4” accumulation in large area, can cause squalls/whiteouts. overruning = fropa type setups(??), warm in front cold behind, typically pulling up moisture from the south. Can surprise and drop very solid snowfalls, tend to be smaller areas of high snowfall. Lots of mixing areas. Phased = interaction between both jets with a closed low. What most of us live here for. Edited February 16 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just cause it fun to<look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12.00 surface 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Wtkidz said: 12.00 surface That look with blocking… oh the possibilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, TLChip said: Asking just so I’m not mixing them up Clipper = norther stream energy typically moving towards the south-east. Typically under 4” accumulation in large area, can cause squalls/whiteouts. overruning = fropa type setups(??), warm in front cold behind, typically pulling up moisture from the south. Can surprise and drop very solid snowfalls, tend to be smaller areas of high snowfall. Lots of mixing areas. Phased = interaction between both jets with a closed low. What most of us live here for. Hence my using "hybrid" to define it. This starts in the N PAC and comes in via the WA and BC border. From there it went down to SE CO as we discussed last night. Now is in TX where it is gaining some convective juiciness. So that part of "typically moving towards SE" is solid. HOWEVER, it then come NE towards us - from a trajectory that is mostly seen in over-running events or what we sometimes call a SWFE (southwest flow event) So that part of the track is Over Runner type (it doesn't dig so we can't say its a long wave either). This is no phasing situation, so redevelopment noted at Delmarva is not a phase - it is a slight pause while the layers stack. The layers stacking leads to enhanced impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wow an novella from Sterling. NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of mid morning, a pair of mid/upper-level shortwaves were digging across the Upper Midwest toward the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a front was stalled near the North/South Carolina border, extending west to central Arkansas where a surface low was developing. IR satellite had what loosely resembled a baroclinic leaf developing over the lower Ohio River Valley north of the surface low. Some lightning was being detected over southern Missouri, indicating elevated instability and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an incoming jet streak. Trends will be closely monitored through the day upstream, as this system will be moving quickly eastward through tonight, bringing snow to the Mid-Atlantic. Clouds will increase through the day as the system approaches from the west. The daylight hours are expected to be dry, with snow reaching the Appalachian crest early this evening. The snow will spread rapidly eastward through the evening hours, becoming heavy at times due to the strong forcing. Aloft, there will be strong PVA as well as upper-level divergence via the left exit region of a 180-200 knot jet. In the low/mid-levels, intense WAA and isentropic lift/fgen is anticipated north of the surface low. This intense, deep lift stretches through the DGZ which will be deepening especially north of US-50/I-66 tonight. For this reason, believe snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour as heavier bands develop. Although the steadiest snow will likely only last 3-4 hours in any one spot, areas that are under heavier bands for most of this time could see 5-8 inches given the higher rates, and that is reflected in the high end (90th percentile) graphics. Areas with stronger orographic lift (the northern Virginia Blue Ridge and the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands and Catoctins) could even see a little more enhancement on top of that. The areas that are most likely to see warning-level accumulation appear to be our climo-favored areas north and west of the urban corridor. This is where the DGZ looks deeper and the surface temperatures will be a few degrees colder, reducing or eliminating any brief initial melting of snow. This area is also favorably placed 100-150 miles north/west of the surface low track and just north of the H85 low track, with a favorable overlap of upper divergence/low-level fgen. It should be noted that some guidance and upstream trends show the potential for multiple bands of heavy snow, one perhaps more jet induced by upper-level forcing (higher ratios/deeper DGZ, but less QPF), with another driven more by low-level fgen (somewhat lower ratios but higher QPF). Between these bands, there may be a bit of subsidence and relative minima in QPF/snow. Confidence is a bit lower, especially further east where surface temperatures will be a touch warmer to start. This is a rapidly-evolving situation, so it`s important to check back through the day for updates. Precipitation should exit the region as the low moves offshore by daybreak Saturday, except perhaps (1) right near the Chesapeake Bay closer to the departing low, (2) across northern Maryland where lingering lift via the mid/upper wave could cause some snow to linger, and (3) along/west of the Allegheny Front where some residual upslope is possible. During the day Saturday looks mostly dry, though stratocu likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What ever happened to bigmirg, could’ve sworn he was on this site and lived @ elevation in WPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Illinois into central Indiana and western Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 161726Z - 162130Z SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow are possible through early afternoon, with up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates and reduced visibility possible. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb jet streak continues to overspread the OH Valley, which is encouraging 850-700 mb warm-air and moisture advection. The low-level warm-air advection trends are increasing the magnitudes of 700 mb frontogenesis, with deep-layer ascent strengthening within deepening/moistening dendritic growth zone. At least a few reports of heavy snow have been received within the past few hours and this trend is expected to continue through the afternoon. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates will remain possible, along with brief periods of reduced visibility associated with an east-to-west oriented snowband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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