Squepp Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 1 minute ago, Wtkidz said: Current surface and radar.. There she blows with the force of a thousand winds!😄... and the speed to match Edited February 16 by Squepp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Paletitsnow63 said: 🤔 Makes me wonder if the SLP is modeled this far north and down to a 997 MB if there is a chance of enhanced snow for a few hours in the area circled in red. Above and beyond what is modeled here. Maybe SLP is just moving too fast for that. Yes, speed kills in this scenario. 300mb winds seem far too swift for this to stick around to consolidate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 16 Meteorologist Share Posted February 16 51 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Past 3 NAMs BOOM the latest one. 3K seems a tad dryer but the theme of stronger and more precip comes through .4-.5" QPF being modeled I would expect ratios to be anywhere from 12:1 to 15:1 (some areas on the north side may push 20:1) so we could start seeing warnings flying soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MDBlueridge said: * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. The highest totals are most likely under heavier snow bands and for elevations above 1000 feet where isolated totals to 8 inches are possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD County. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County. You win again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Rush said: * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. The highest totals are most likely under heavier snow bands and for elevations above 1000 feet where isolated totals to 8 inches are possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD County. In Virginia, Western Loudoun County. You win again!!! Lol well see. Lift always seems to help, especially with storms from the west, south, east or north. Haven't seen your mountain snow gif yest this year. I like valleys odds with this one. Cold will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MDBlueridge said: Lol well see. Lift always seems to help, especially with storms from the west, south, east or north. Haven't seen your mountain snow gif yest this year. I like valleys odds with this one. Cold will be there. Yeah I feel confident in enough to cover the grass and sled on. Maybe push my seasonal total up to 15". Half way to average. Only hit average once in the 5 years I've lived here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 A different look by a short ranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: .4-.5" QPF being modeled I would expect ratios to be anywhere from 12:1 to 15:1 (some areas on the north side may push 20:1) so we could start seeing warnings flying soon. Was wondering if they will update WWA to WSW here. Its gonna be close - they for sure will want to see more from the 12z suite until they pull any changes I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Rush said: Yeah I feel confident in enough to cover the grass and sled on. Maybe push my seasonal total up to 15". Half way to average. Only hit average once in the 5 years I've lived here. It has been a rough stretch for the valleys. This season has had some fun. And maybe a couple more in the hopper. I hope this one produces for you, cumberland valley etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 16 Meteorologist Share Posted February 16 Shame the temps across MD at 700mb aren't cooler (-8 to -10) but nice VV's across mush of the region. Would be damn near perfect around -12C but that is up by the border so slightly misplaced, per model, of VV's to best DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z ARW & NSSL snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RRFS holds the Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Local mets just showed Precision Cast and now has close to 5" - about a 2" increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Too bad we couldn't get a connection with the southern jet. Loaded with QPF down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ÑAM was overdone with QPF last storm in this time range. Different setup though, this is pretty straight forward… well west to east 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Paletitsnow63 said: Too bad we couldn't get a connection with the southern jet. Loaded with QPF down there. It should bring some of that along, just not all of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Definitely down for a golf outing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12z IKEY - another models shifts north to some extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NWS has literally been increasing the expected snow totals inch by inch the past 24 hours for north-central MD. Winter storm warning now calling for 4-8. If we get 4 inches out of a fast moving clipper that’s a great day. Over 4 inches will bonus time! If you are in the path of this one, good luck, enjoy. If not, let’s hope next one has your name on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 They callin this a clipper but it's not really. It's more of a hybrid between a clipper and a standard over-running event. Clips don't often get ANY help from the S jet and this, as we've shown, gets a piece of the STJ moisture. If it were slower and "diggier" we'd be talking much longer. It is "easier" to explain it as a Clipper though All things considered though, yes - anything over 6" has got to be considered overperformer for so swift a progression. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Spoiler Day 1... A positively-tilted mid-level trough shifting from MN through the Great Lakes tonight combines with a shortwave trough from the central Plains to promote development of a surface low currently over the southern Plains as it moves over Tennessee today and the southern Mid-Atlantic tonight. To the north of this low, a transition from rain to snow will occur deeper into the colder air, with banded snow aided by an advancing arc of FGEN that will promote increasingly moderate snow bands this morning over northern Missouri and central Illinois/Indiana and then this evening over the central Appalachians, then overnight along the Mason-Dixon line to central NJ. SLRs will trend from near/below 10:1 near the low to over 15:1 well into the cold side where more energetic lift into a favorable DGZ occurs. Day 1 PWPF for >4" snow are 40-70% north of St Louis from northeastern Missouri through central Illinois along I-72. Values decrease to 20-30% across central Indiana along I-74/70 before diminishing over southern Ohio. However, PWPF rapidly increases east from the Ohio River over West Virginia, western Maryland and into the Laurel Highlands where values for >6" are 40-70%. An axis of heavier snow is likely in this zone with the ridges east of the Allegheny Front to the Blue Ridge in Virginia most likely to see 6" tonight. This fast moving system, riding a 175kt+ Wly jet redevelops over along the North Carolina/Virginia border overnight before it quickly shifts east of the southern DelMarVa Peninsula. PWPF for >4" are 40-60% extend east mainly on the north side of the Mason-Dixon line through the Philly metro and into central NJ where the most favorable FGEN and dendritic growth persists. Just south, 20-40% probs do extend over northern Virginia/central Maryland and northern Delaware where more progressive, but still locally heavy bands are expected north of the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) just cause I like to give hope to my fellow SJ peeps also seems to be at odds with Undertakerson just above mine? Edited February 16 by Chris2333 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z GFS snow map. Looks like totals increased across the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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