ionizer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Anyone know approx starting time Friday for Monmouth county NJ? Heading up north to VT (go figure) and don't want to leave in the snow if I can avoid it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 30 minutes ago, ionizer said: Anyone know approx starting time Friday for Monmouth county NJ? Heading up north to VT (go figure) and don't want to leave in the snow if I can avoid it Nizer.... Friday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 29. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Doorman said: Nizer.... Friday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 29. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible ThAnks, that should give me time to get out of here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: I’ll take it MDBlueridge! Looks like you could do well again up on your hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 00z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 00z Nam 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 00z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 LWX re the forecast. .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday, bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere. A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the low`s track. The 18Z/12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible. Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-6" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up. The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow. Farther east, the uptick in forecast snow amounts and impressive model soundings suggests there is a threat for warning criteria. Again, where this occurs is difficult to highlight, but hourly rates of 1 to 2 inches are possible overnight. This would quickly cover roads and lead to hazardous travel. As such, Winter Storm Watches now extend from the Mason-Dixon Line down to the northern suburbs of D.C. and Baltimore. Additionally, these cover areas of northern/central Virginia as well as the Shenandoah Valley. With snow expected to arrive late Friday night, any decisions for related warnings and/or advisories should occur tonight. Stay tuned to the latest updates at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Where snow remains, increasing northwesterly winds could lead to a bit of blowing snow given the high SLR/fluffy nature of the snowpack. Temperatures Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Since I am the only one posting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-508-526-527-WVZ051>053- 161100- District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Wintergreen, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four to six inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible in these bands. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 16 Meteorologist Share Posted February 16 Lol a winter storm watch well at least I won't have to drive in this one. Looks like early forecast from NWS is saying 3-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 700mb Sweet Spot nice inflow ATM Plus 6hr prog - If it were to hold all the way over to the coast??? Extrap the flat zonal flow and bingo Higher end snows in your neck of the woods d-man Edited February 16 by Doorman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well off to bed , gotta work. interesting SREF b for changes of over 4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 16 Meteorologist Share Posted February 16 Looks like we may play the two band game. 700mb fronto region and 850mb fronto region. 700mb looks like it may set up right along the pa border while 850mb may be down around DC southern Baltimore area/ eastern shore. Which one produces more will be interesting to watch but it really depends on where the best VV's (vertical velocities) are do they happen lower in the atmosphere because it is a shallow system or further up. Either way a nice 2-4" event in the Mid Atlantic with some places getting awfully close to that warning level with how cold it will be aloft. Enjoy! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Time to lube up the leaf blower I suppose. 🌬️ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Slight waggle back North with the snowfall axis on the 6z ICON and GFS. No big shift, maybe like 50mi.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Upstream discussions should translate east rather nicely. Note the mention of dual stripes of snow - similar to what SoWhat's mentioned. AFDILN (Dayton, OH) Favorable axis of frontogenetic forcing develops into eastern Indiana and western Ohio by 18Z and works east-southeast across the area this aftn into early evening. This signal points to the potential for enhanced banded snow. Model solutions - especially the hi-res models solutions indicate a dual axis of enhanced snow. One across the I-70 corridor where the thermal profile lines up with favorable forcing and a second axis from northern KY thru south central Ohio. Snow to liquid ratios are more favorable north (around 15:1) with snow to liquid ratios starting out around 7:1 across the south and then increasing to 13:1 this evening. Model trends are generally higher with snow amounts and have adjusted the forecast with up to 3 inches across the I-70 corridor. For the far southern band have up to 2 inches thru evening. High confidence in snow across the entire area but medium confidence in the location of the highest amounts. Uncertainty exists due to the banded nature of the pcpn - so slight areal adjustments to the these bands will affect the axis of highest snow totals. Also, ground temperatures begin warm but cool to freezing by evening, so impacts to roads will be limited initially until better rates come into play overcoming the warm ground. Edited February 16 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Just so Wt isn't the "only one" posting (ha ha) Edited February 16 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 LWX SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track across southern Virginia tonight into Saturday morning. Cold air aloft will be in place for much of the area, although the thermal gradient will be very close to central Virginia and southern Maryland. Surface temperatures may be a few degrees above freezing at onset and may fail to drop much below freezing closer to the waters/urban areas and from Charlottesville to southern Maryland. However, the snow rates and overnight time frame will result in some accumulation across much of the area, with the main question mark being south of I-64. Onset time will be between 7 PM and midnight from west to east. Strong frontogentical forcing and the cyclonic side of a 200 kt jet aloft will result in very strong lift and good dendrite growth. This will lead to banding potential with 1-2 inch per hour rates. The location of the heavier bands remains in question, however the overall QPF maximum lies squarely across our forecast area. Travel will likely quickly deteriorate due to the snow rates. The main limiting factor is the very fast movement of the system, with most areas only seeing 3 or 4 hours of heavier snow rates. Snow will quickly depart to the east around or just after sunrise, except for some light lingering upslope snow which could last into the afternoon. Headlines have been adjusted based on confidence. Warnings have been issued for the Alleghenies and northern Virginia Blue Ridge where colder temperatures (and upslope component) should result in higher totals. Advisories have been issued in eastern areas for a general 2 to 4 inches (a little less in the south and perhaps a locally higher total under any banding). The Watch remains in place to the northwest due to continued uncertainty on placement and magnitude of any banding. This will likely be resolved into an advisory or warning later this morning. Gradual clearing, gusty winds, and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s in the lower elevations should allow for melting Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will be chilly with lows in the teens and 20s. Gusty winds continue Sunday as low pressure moves toward the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will climb closer to climo though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 06z Gfs I know not short range model but why not? a bit warmer still a very fast mover, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Wtkidz said: 06z Gfs I know not short range model but why not? a bit warmer still a very fast mover, Yes - w/o potential for any phasing, and with NAO Neut right now, there is practically NOTHING to slow it down in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Let's play America's favorite home game --- Find the Highlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 06z NAM. Well looks similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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