Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 Our mid-winter warm up saw temperatures soar to 80° in our nation’s capital at the end of January. The beginning of February has been both mild and tranquil. In my home of SCPA we’ve had back to back days of sunshine; a first in nearly two months! In Punxsutawney.. our friend Phil prognosticated an early spring; with about 40% historical accuracy 😂. As a baseball fan.. this quiet stretch of winter weather had me thinking of the first crack of the bat as spring training is slated to kick-off on February 22nd. Winter is cancelled… eh.. or is it? I’m confident winter is far from over. As a matter of fact, I believe that winter’s worst is on the horizon. I’m calling my shot folks (See Major League GIF.. lol 😆). On social media.. such as X.. several meteorologists and weather enthusiasts have highlighted the potential for a pattern change mid-month. This is supported by consistent ensemble guidance amongst the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE. I’ve chosen to highlight the EPS 500 MB mean, which indicates a trough in the east and ridging to the west. This depiction of the EPS shows the potential for teleconnections aligning with a negative NAO and AO, and positive PNA. The EPO is projected to be negative as well. The MJO will likely cycle through critical phases 7 and 8 before navigating towards the COD. Additional details are available in the spoiler. It’s all there.. but will we capitalize on the pattern? That’s the question.. and there’s risk. There’s risk of suppression. There’s risk of warmer Pacific air. There’s risk that streams fail to align; that there’s nothing in the pipeline.. no spark to ignite. I get it. I’m at peace with that.. but the pattern is the pattern. It’s the best potential we’ve seen this winter and is consistent with an El Niño winter. We shall see what happens! May it be in our favor! Alright.. So.. now it’s time for the elephant(s) in the room that we’re all thinking about. Historically.. this is a Blockbuster (Are they all closed now? lol) timeframe. In February 1979.. The Mid-Atlantic was expecting a pedestrian 4-6” of snow on President’s Day; however, that forecast was far from reality as 20-30” of snow fell around our nation’s capitol in what would become PDI. About two decades later.. the region would experience another historic snowfall in February of 2003 with a widespread two feet plus falling in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in what would become PDII. It’s been another two decades.. could the quest for PDIII be nigh? Well.. that’s all speculation and hype.. for now! ☃️ To be honest.. I’ve been thinking about creating this thread for some time. I started collecting some data around January 29th.. 🫢 and I’m sure others here did so well before me! The focus is on President’s Day itself.. because.. well.. it’s at the intersection of historical lore and a promising future pattern. It’s a wide range of dates too.. as there’s quite some lead time here. Those can be trimmed as we get closer to the specified dates. The fact remains that pattern change has been evident for a while on the long-range ensembles around mid-month, and teleconnections look to turn favorable as well. Though the operational GFS has hinted at some activity.. this is largely based in ensemble support and straightforward pattern recognition. As mentioned.. There’s risk.. a storm may or may not form; however, it is a period worth discussion IMO. So many folks on this forum have fond memories of past President’s Day events.. and I genuinely hope that this period can deliver another memorable event for everyone reading! Of course, only time will tell! Until then.. I’ve called my shot. It’s time to swing for the fences. As always, Happy Tracking! 🤓 Long-Range Ensemble Guidance | EPS 500MB Mean (Jan. 29th) Spoiler Ensemble Guidance | Members + 500 MB (Hours 300-384) EPS GEFS CMCE Teleconnections | EPS + GEFS EPO AO NAO PNA MJO Organic Forecasting | BSR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Say it's NAME! Say IT! G'won, you know you wanna 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 29 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Say it's NAME! Say IT! G'won, you know you wanna lol.. 😂 No. I refuse to jinx this. I shall not anger the snow gods. Thou shalt not anger the snow gods either. It’s weather commandment numero uno. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 (edited) So.. looking at the overnight and morning versions of the GFS. Both the 00z and 06z GFS show a little action on the front end.. and a little action on the back end of the cold air injection currently projected for this period. At this point.. both are southern sliders, which seems to be the greatest risk at the moment. Looks cold and dry for the moment in the NE and Mid-Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how things evolve over the next several days. 06z GFS Potential #1 06z GFS Potential #2 Edited February 5 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Most ensembles have a 50/50 hanging out, just need a good wave to come through. We should have cold air to work with. Would be nice with more snowpack in canada/mid west but I don’t think that’s happening. Gotta rely on the airmass. That #1 looks like it could become a good transfer L if it drops west and further south. Then if we can get that southern stream involved… boom. Miller b threat imo. #2 super LR but could be a nice miller a threat if we do indeed get some blocking/-nao Good stuff to track… lots of waiting to go though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 12z GFS showing some run to run consistency with an event.. which for this lead time is decent. There's no doubt it's influenced by suppression; but as @TLChip mentioned, it may not be that far off if a few pieces fall in a different direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 If you look at the pre-game at hour 240.. You can see some similarities and differences amongst the models. Looks like all three have the three pieces or ingredients for a storm. All have that ridge out west too. The Euro probably looks the best IMO. You can see how the GFS plays out.. but the other 2 are out of range of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 46 minutes ago, Penn State said: If you look at the pre-game at hour 240.. You can see some similarities and differences amongst the models. Looks like all three have the three pieces or ingredients for a storm. All have that ridge out west too. The Euro probably looks the best IMO. You can see how the GFS plays out.. but the other 2 are out of range of course. Strange Euro has the circle (flashing too quick for me to get a good look) and the others don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, clm said: Strange Euro has the circle Maybe it’s sniffing some fun out! 2 hours ago, Penn State said: 12z GFS showing some run to run consistency with an event.. which for this lead time is decent. There's no doubt it's influenced by suppression; but as @TLChip mentioned, it may not be that far off if a few pieces fall in a different direction. Waves are there, just need to get jammed up in the atl to smash them together. I don’t see this sliding OTS with -NAO, just need that suppression to ease up a bit. Should see some interesting outcomes in the next week. Where are the LR wizards hanging out this week 👀 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 5 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 5 48 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I see a really abstract smiley face.. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 41 minutes ago, Penn State said: I see a really abstract smiley face.. 🙂 Maybe… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 6 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, TLChip said: Maybe… See.. now I was thinking this.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, TLChip said: Maybe… 10 hours ago, Penn State said: See.. now I was thinking this.. Are you aware that the human brain is hardwired to see faces where there are none? From the Man in the Moon, to Jesus on the toast, to electrical outlets, etc. Face pareidolia is the term used. It's a matter of survival. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Very close to something larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Man - it sure wouldn't take much to come up with Pr.... (nope, not gonna do it) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 6 Admin Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Are you aware that the human brain is hardwired to see faces where there are none? From the Man in the Moon, to Jesus on the toast, to electrical outlets, etc. Face pareidolia is the term used. It's a matter of survival. Reminds me of the reason they put these up at the roulette tables at casinos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 6 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 6 So.. I was trying to trace a key piece of energy to see where it starts and where it ends. At hour 72, the piece of energy in question is just under the word "valid" in the image. It's like upper Pacific, near the Bearing Strait. If you follow it from there through the 240th hour it ends up somewhere in the western U.S. I think the Canadian places it in Nevada, the Euro in the four corners region, and the GFS shoots it out past the Mississippi River. I don't know what's the most favorable solution, but I think my point is.. long way to go, lots of interactions to take place. 500MB @ Hour 72 500 MB @ Hour 240 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 39 minutes ago, Penn State said: So.. I was trying to trace a key piece of energy to see where it starts and where it ends. At hour 72, the piece of energy in question is just under the word "valid" in the image. It's like upper Pacific, near the Bearing Strait. If you follow it from there through the 240th hour it ends up somewhere in the western U.S. I think the Canadian places it in Nevada, the Euro in the four corners region, and the GFS shoots it out past the Mississippi River. I don't know what's the most favorable solution, but I think my point is.. long way to go, lots of interactions to take place. 500MB @ Hour 72 500 MB @ Hour 240 Those two gifs show just how many moving parts are involved, going to be a fun 6-14 days of tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 6 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, LUCC said: Those two gifs show just how many moving parts are involved, going to be a fun 6-14 days of tracking. I hope so! It was so much fun in mid-January when the forums were active. I had some great conversations.. and the late-night model watching was a lot of fun. Hopefully the storm on the 13th works out too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 No dancing streams on the 12z GFS but storm still there, doesn't need much to tango. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 6 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 6 Probably the best look over the last several runs.. Improvement is a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, Penn State said: robably the best look over the last several runs.. Improvement is a positive. No wonder we use ensembles… look at those WAFFLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 6 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, TLChip said: No wonder we use ensembles… look at those WAFFLES. What's a couple thousand miles between friends? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Penn State said: What's a couple thousand miles between friends? lol One of the members doing this vs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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