Jump to content

February 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


SNOWBOB11

Recommended Posts

Not gonna lie I’ve been out of the loop but uhhhhh…. Color me interested..

I only logged on cause I’m getting ready for work at this ungodly hour and was shocked to hear thunder as I’ve been out of the weather loop for about a week and didn’t expect thunderstorms this morning.

  • SHOCKED 1
  • FLUSHED 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Snow____ said:

Not gonna lie I’ve been out of the loop but uhhhhh…. Color me interested..

I only logged on cause I’m getting ready for work at this ungodly hour and was shocked to hear thunder as I’ve been out of the weather loop for about a week and didn’t expect thunderstorms this morning.

Geez - 

image.thumb.png.3d5216945156ac8a2e0306f56a1b05d2.png

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, RobB said:

Local news wisely not trying to post any snow accumulation. Mentioning rain snow mix seems wise. 

This is exactly what I just watched on our local channel. I missed the first minute, or so, but only saw the mix mentioned and the met saying to “keep a close watch” ….blah blah. 
 You know, “the usual drill” ….sort of thing. 

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ILN now acknowledging a “SE trend” and I-71 being the target…

Spoiler
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be just upstream of a robust, H5 trough
carving its way through the central CONUS Sunday night. The
forecast will be dry to start the night, but PoPs are quickly
introduced ahead of this approaching system. A surface low near
the Ark-La-Tex region will begin to translate northeastward
through the day Monday. As this occurs, precip coverage will
increase across our fa. Thermal profiles suggest that rain is
the primary p-type through most of the daytime hours Monday,
especially SE of I-71.

The primary concern with this system will come Monday evening
and Monday night. Models have continued to highlight the
formation of a deformation band on the northwest side of this
surface low, leading to an area of enhanced QPF. While locations
along/southeast of I-71 may primarily observe rain during the
daytime Monday, there is expected to be a rapid transition to
snowfall shortly after sundown with this deformation band.
Bufkit soundings highlight this rapid cooling in thermal
profiles, with the wet bulb temperature quickly dropping to near
or just below the freezing mark with the heavier precip rates.
As such, this will likely initiate a heavy band of snowfall and
lead to rapid accumulations overnight given the lack of
insolation. Models/ensembles have started to trend a bit more
southeastward with this deformation band, now hitting more
counties along/SE of I-71. Locations NW of I-71 will have an
environment that would support snow as the primary p-type for a
longer period, but the forcing starts to weaken the further NW
you go. Will begin to introduce an HWO mention for accumulating
snow potential, but there still remains uncertainty on where
exactly the heaviest band of snow will align itself.

Snow quickly tapers off Tuesday, with a only a brief reprive in
precip chances as another shortwave trough dives southward from
Canada late Wednesday. Additional chances for rain and perhaps
some snow can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures continue to remain above normal these days, but
some cooler air builds in on Friday behind the shortwave,
placing temperatures near seasonal normals.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin

The Canadian models are either taking a nap or seeing something the others aren't. 6z NAM lost a little oomph but had a similar idea to its beefy 0z run. I think 6z GFS was a little warmer, and so we lost some of the snow thump in some areas there. Don't know why the 6z Euro hasn't run yet. Unless I'm just up too early on a Saturday and it shouldn't have run yet, lol.

models-2024021006-f084.snku_acc-imp.conus.gif.5eebc8a24ed178e7a42897b96d467a80.gifmodels-2024021006-f084.snku_acc-imp.us_ov.gif.3b77a89893997a11a219322f878c6366.giffloop-nbm-2024021007.snowfall_acc-imp.us_ov.gif.97b7e428b1cffca0a19c86245fd2eccb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From this morning's ILN Discussion :

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be just upstream of a robust, H5 trough
carving its way through the central CONUS Sunday night. The
forecast will be dry to start the night, but PoPs are quickly
introduced ahead of this approaching system. A surface low near
the Ark-La-Tex region will begin to translate northeastward
through the day Monday. As this occurs, precip coverage will
increase across our fa. Thermal profiles suggest that rain is
the primary p-type through most of the daytime hours Monday,
especially SE of I-71.

The primary concern with this system will come Monday evening
and Monday night. Models have continued to highlight the
formation of a deformation band on the northwest side of this
surface low, leading to an area of enhanced QPF. While locations
along/southeast of I-71 may primarily observe rain during the
daytime Monday, there is expected to be a rapid transition to
snowfall shortly after sundown with this deformation band.
Bufkit soundings highlight this rapid cooling in thermal
profiles, with the wet bulb temperature quickly dropping to near
or just below the freezing mark with the heavier precip rates.
As such, this will likely initiate a heavy band of snowfall and
lead to rapid accumulations overnight given the lack of
insolation. Models/ensembles have started to trend a bit more
southeastward with this deformation band, now hitting more
counties along/SE of I-71. Locations NW of I-71 will have an
environment that would support snow as the primary p-type for a
longer period, but the forcing starts to weaken the further NW
you go. Will begin to introduce an HWO mention for accumulating
snow potential, but there still remains uncertainty on where
exactly the heaviest band of snow will align itself.

Snow quickly tapers off Tuesday, with a only a brief reprive in
precip chances as another shortwave trough dives southward from
Canada late Wednesday. Additional chances for rain and perhaps
some snow can be expected Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures continue to remain above normal these days, but
some cooler air builds in on Friday behind the shortwave,
placing temperatures near seasonal normals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...