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February 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


SNOWBOB11

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17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

well to be fair, the NE is in a far better setup with a miller B setup than we are when there is an immediate lack of cold air

The LR NAM has a gross closed 500 look  at 84 🤢, this would be the culprit of the 2-3 county wide snow band

 

namconus_z500_mslp_us_53.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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11 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

so gutting to see this in mid Feb, just as it was in mid Dec and mid Jan. Those who dismiss "repeating" weather patterns are nuts

 

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Feels like we've had this issue 3-4 times this winter.  Would have been a top 5 winter around here if we would have had the cold when we needed it.

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3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

The euro is all.. It’s gonna snow, yes it’s snowing, woo, oh, Ohio you get no snow, heyyyy PA it’s gonna snow!

Lol…who on this board ticked off Mother Nature?!  

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2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Lol…who on this board ticked off Mother Nature?!  

Heh 🙂

 

It would be more upsetting if the snows were nice powder.  Seeing low 30a snow is meh to me anymore.....

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I understand a transfer to the coast is forming. But I would think a 994 has a better precip shield to its NW prior to that transfer. Maybe I’m missing something?

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1 hour ago, mafa said:

I understand a transfer to the coast is forming. But I would think a 994 has a better precip shield to its NW prior to that transfer. Maybe I’m missing something?

It might, but it would probably look like this

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

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14 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Looks like 3-4 County wide is the max. Tons of people are going to get screwed on this

Like @junior mentioned above, there just isn't enough cold air available for anymore upside than a narrow band unless we can get that northern energy to phase earlier.

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2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Anyone have the individual snow map members for the 18z GEFS? It looks like a few of the GEFS members were much slower & stronger (sub 990) - I'm wondering if those show a phase & a more widespread snowfall in the OV? 

 

Screenshot_20240208-202632_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20240208-202614_Chrome.jpg

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