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February 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


SNOWBOB11

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30 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

The Euro is a great track.. and it even goes sub-1000. But much like recent history, the cold air is minimal and the snow fall to the NW of the low is (so far) kind of blah.

Something tells me the precip shield would be better with that track and strength. Time will tell!

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2 hours ago, Indygirl said:

This might be the ONLY time you’ll hear me wish this one doesn’t happen ….

Ive got a dental thing Tuesday afternoon that’s already got me totally terrified, so I don’t wanna even THINK about driving in a big snow on top of it. 😭

 

Ok, carry on! 
 

 

the fact you used the words "big snow" in relation to a 23-24' winter event, I think you'll be just fine 😄 

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I've come to grips that this thing is headed NW...we've seen this exact scenario play out multiple times this season & it hasn't worked out yet for the OV. Why would this one? I don't see anything that's much different with this system's setup. Cold air is so marginal - just don't see a ton of upside. I'm thinking a very narrow band through parts of IL, IN, S. MI, NW OH

Eh, who knows? Maybe the snow-starved will be pleasantly surprised this time. 

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1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I've come to grips that this thing is headed NW...we've seen this exact scenario play out multiple times this season & it hasn't worked out yet for the OV. Why would this one? I don't see anything that's much different with this system's setup. Cold air is so marginal - just don't see a ton of upside. I'm thinking a very narrow band through parts of IL, IN, S. MI, NW OH

Eh, who knows? Maybe the snow-starved will be pleasantly surprised this time. 

I think this will even miss my neck of the woods. Most snow solutions this winter have been cutters, why would it be any different. 

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Shocked that DTX even mentions this:

Significant changes from the 00z to 12z operational runs and
ensemble members. It previously looked as the low over the
southeastern United States early next week was going to track to the
Mid Atlantic coastline and miss us, but latest trends suggest the
northern stream trough digging into the western Great Lakes may be
sufficient to phase and draw the low into the eastern Ohio
Valley/tracking close to Pittsburgh, supporting the potential for
accumulating snow, especially Detroit Metro area and points south.
Outgoing forecast from NBM suggests just a low chance of
precipitation for now...stay tuned.

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10 hours ago, Indygirl said:

This might be the ONLY time you’ll hear me wish this one doesn’t happen ….

Ive got a dental thing Tuesday afternoon that’s already got me totally terrified, so I don’t wanna even THINK about driving in a big snow on top of it. 😭

 

Ok, carry on! 
 

 

I hope things work out for you— I am no stranger to dental troubles, so I can relate.

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Just need to remind myself we're still 4+ days out-nothing has been sampled yet, either.  Lots of time to go.  


Been lurking in the NE thread for the same system, lots of comments about this being a tricky set up with both location and timing of multiple pieces at play.  Guessing we've got another 2-even 3 days to go before we have a good handle on this one.

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47 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

Just need to remind myself we're still 4+ days out-nothing has been sampled yet, either.  Lots of time to go.  


Been lurking in the NE thread for the same system, lots of comments about this being a tricky set up with both location and timing of multiple pieces at play.  Guessing we've got another 2-even 3 days to go before we have a good handle on this one.

well to be fair, the NE is in a far better setup with a miller B setup than we are when there is an immediate lack of cold air

The LR NAM has a gross closed 500 look  at 84 🤢, this would be the culprit of the 2-3 county wide snow band

 

namconus_z500_mslp_us_53.png

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