MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: It doesn’t matter the point is climate is changing things you don’t go from in my area averaging 50 so inches are to getting back to back years looking under 20 inches there’s something more to it you can cut averages basically in half back to back winters I understand it’s of a 30 year average but boy that’s a hell of a first couple years This is what it was like living through some of the warm, snow-starved Ohio Valley winters of the late 1800s & the 1930s (among others throughout recorded history. It sucks, but maybe we'll get rewarded with an above normal spring for once. Been a good 10+ years since we've had one. Could be worse - at least you're not living through Youngstown's least snowy winter (1937). Edited February 11 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: This is what it was like living through some of the warm, snow-starved Ohio Valley winters of the late 1800s & the 1930s (among others throughout recorded history. It sucks, but maybe we'll get rewarded with an above normal spring for once. Been a good 10+ years since we've had one. See that’s my issue if you’re going to do this then give me spring in March and early April don’t wait until may and the cold and sleet hang on for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 ICON is SE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Absolute wreckage 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: ICON is SE too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm over this same charade over and over for the year but your kidding yourself to not expect another month of winter, therefore I'll be in the 17-19 thread 😅 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 I don't even know when to start looking at or tracking storms at this point. Can't even count on model runs the day before being close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Absolute wreckage It's just total carnage at this point...we really are getting to the point where models are useless for any kind of reliable details until 24 hours out. (if that) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) @Hassaywx1223 - your post sent me down a data rabbit hole... Youngstown had back to back winters in the 1930s with less than 18" of total snow. And one of those winters was saved from being far worse by a rare major snowstorm in April. Heck, you've actually had it pretty darn good up your way lately...13 of the past 18 winters have featured either average or above average snowfall in the Y-town area. We've got much better winters ahead, but that doesn't make it any easier to get through these down years as the snow-lovers we all are. Edited February 11 by MesoscaleBanding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 ILN, who is probably tearing their hair out. Quote Surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday morning will lift northeast across the Tennessee Valley through the day on Monday and into the central Appalachians Monday night. The 06Z and 12Z models have overall trended farther south with this, along with the associated deformation axis that will set up across our area for Monday night. The NBM seems to be lagging in this southern shift, so have trended the forecast more toward the newer model data. Ahead of the low, rain will spread into the area from the south through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. With the developing deformation axis and increasing frontogenetic forcing, dynamic cooling should allow for a fairly quick change over to snow in the heavier pcpn Monday night. This will lead to the potential for a few hour period of some pretty heavy snow rates. That being said, surface and road temperatures will be warm initially, further complicating the snow amounts. There will also be the potential for some banding which could lead to some localized enhanced amounts. Finally as we go through the night, the system`s energy will begin to shift to the east coast, which could lead to slightly lower amounts across our eastern areas. SLRs will start off on the lower side but should increase somewhat through the event as we continue to cool. Desi and the GFS/ECMWF ensembles are indicating about a 50 percent chance for an axis of greater than 4 inches somewhere across our southern areas, but this is based on a 10:1 ratio. Given all of the variables and uncertainty, think the best way to handle this at this point is to allow for snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range for these areas, with some higher amounts possible in localized banding. Will go ahead and go with a Winter Weather Advisory across parts of our southwest where we currently have the highest snowfall totals, but there remains a significant degree of uncertainty with this forecast and additional changes may be needed with later forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Issued an informal storm watch to my wife and her teacher friends for Tuesday morning - looks like I'll end up canceling it (although our district hasn't had a day off in a few weeks so they'll probably call off to keep their teachers happy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Crowbar said: Issued an informal storm watch to my wife and her teacher friends for Tuesday morning - looks like I'll end up canceling it (although our district hasn't had a day off in a few weeks so they'll probably call off to keep their teachers happy) I'm starting to wonder if we'll even see a single flake up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adurb44 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: It's just total carnage at this point...we really are getting to the point where models are useless for any kind of reliable details until 24 hours out. (if that) I've been puzzled by this these last few years. I feel like a decade or so ago the models seemed to be much more consistent with storms. Is it possible that all the advancements in resolution and inputs has only increased the imprecision of the models? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, adurb44 said: I've been puzzled by this these last few years. I feel like a decade or so ago the models seemed to be much more consistent with storms. Is it possible that all the advancements in resolution and inputs has only increased the imprecision of the models? As an anecdote... The March '08 blizzard thread on the old Accuwx forums had that storm nailed down pretty good in the day 10 range - we commonly started threads in the day 14-15 range & the storms actually happened, LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, adurb44 said: I've been puzzled by this these last few years. I feel like a decade or so ago the models seemed to be much more consistent with storms. Is it possible that all the advancements in resolution and inputs has only increased the imprecision of the models? This wasn’t an issue for the Canadians apparently lol. They had it pegged from the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adurb44 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: As an anecdote... The March '08 blizzard thread on the old Accuwx forums had that storm nailed down pretty good in the day 10 range - we commonly started threads in the day 14-15 range & the storms actually happened, LOL I know! Sure, there were wobbles back then, but the run-to-run variation seems to have been far less if I remember correctly. Edited February 11 by adurb44 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: As an anecdote... The March '08 blizzard thread on the old Accuwx forums had that storm nailed down pretty good in the day 10 range - we commonly started threads in the day 14-15 range & the storms actually happened, LOL Why is that the models can't be wrong to our benefit rather than the other way around. Modeling shows snows only to move away from said scenario. I know it is psychological but I never remember models showing my area getting much of nothing only to surprise with a big snow...Seems to only go the wrong way 😄 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: I'm starting to wonder if we'll even see a single flake up this way. Thinking the same - moved too far to the SE and it will still be relatively warm. ILN put another HWO out just now saying 1-2", but I see maybe a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 ILN catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, cperry29 said: ILN catching up. I am doubting seeing any flakes, let alone 1 to 2 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS evolution...embarrassing performance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 And there she went….. SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS slides a couple more counties SE...Cincy & C-bus are now on the fringe. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 And with that, I'm going to go watch some expensive commercials and eat lots of wings. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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