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February 11-13, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


SNOWBOB11

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15 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Glad we're not the only ones stunnedΒ 

Screenshot_20240211_232213_Facebook.jpg

Indeed, though it is not too surprising when not all modeling was enthused. When the RGEM / GEM was consistently not in the camp, it gave me pause.Β 

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50 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Glad we're not the only ones stunnedΒ 

Screenshot_20240211_232213_Facebook.jpg

I can commiserate with the total whiff of a storm. Nearly five decades ago, in December 1974, we were supposed to get a huge storm in our part of the Northeast. Parts of the Midwest had gotten blitzed, and forecasters were sure that a second low would form off the Atlantic coast. I was looking forward to a snow day as Sunday became Monday. The sky looked especially ominous on both Sunday and Monday. However, we ended up getting less than one inch. Not only did that storm miss, but so did practically every other storm that winter. And that was followed by one of the coldest March- April periods ever. None of the cutters missed us, however.

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5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I really believe that's what's happening. Seems like the models were far more reliable back in the day. Especially the EuropeanΒ 

Euro used to be significantly better at medium range track and intensity of storms. No question about it in my opinion. I can recall them doing an upgrade to it several years ago and it’s never been the same. It’s strange because it was a bit after that it became a free to view model. It’s actually ridiculous when you think of how it used to be basically the go to model. Right now the CMC is looking Β pretty good with what it had predicted from early on. It’s tough though because the CMC can be bad at times also. We’ve seen several times this year it stuck to something then change just like what the GFS just did…

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19 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I think this is the image that makes me the most angry. Strong as all get-out storm.. in the EXACT place we want it for a good snow.. but nothing on the NW quadrant.

floop-nam-2024021212.ref1km_ptype.conus.gif.c20058b85128d756b1e9e613eb5fa050.gif

cold air in place, too.Β  All winter we have had bad track and cold, right track and no cold, now right track and no qpf.Β  At some point something has to change, right?Β  I'm assuming we've got a chance at a top 5 least snowy winter here?

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Great Lakes juju is a real thing. Missus and I had to drive to New York for the week. Made it to Bloomingburg yesterday. Great position there for a storm right? Nope. Storm shifted south last minute. Was 8-12” now down to 1-3”. Β Yikkkkes. Going to hide myself under some blankets now.Β 

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1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Great Lakes juju is a real thing. Missus and I had to drive to New York for the week. Made it to Bloomingburg yesterday. Great position there for a storm right? Nope. Storm shifted south last minute. Was 8-12” now down to 1-3”. Β Yikkkkes. Going to hide myself under some blankets now.Β 

Wow. I think I would've cried!

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22 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Great Lakes juju is a real thing. Missus and I had to drive to New York for the week. Made it to Bloomingburg yesterday. Great position there for a storm right? Nope. Storm shifted south last minute. Was 8-12” now down to 1-3”. Β Yikkkkes. Going to hide myself under some blankets now.Β 

Similarly, with family in the western suburbs of Boston, I've been following their snow forecast.Β  Yesterday early AM 10-16" forecast, early last evening 5-9" and as of this morning a sloppy 3-5" with a high of 35.Β Β  Let’s see what they actually get.

Edit to add: Β Today’s forecast now down to 1-2”.

Update: Final observation, a dusting on the grass! Β  Ouch!

Β 

BTW, I was in your neck of the woods last week.Β  Hit the Museum of the Great Lakes and Tony Packo's.

Edited by Hiramite
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On 2/12/2024 at 5:23 PM, NWOhioChaser said:

Great Lakes juju is a real thing. Missus and I had to drive to New York for the week. Made it to Bloomingburg yesterday. Great position there for a storm right? Nope. Storm shifted south last minute. Was 8-12” now down to 1-3”. Β Yikkkkes. Going to hide myself under some blankets now.Β 

Β 

I went from 15 inches to zippo in about 12 hrs. πŸ˜†Β 

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