Wnwniner Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Do the models not initiate correct? Is this big se adjustment from sampling? I mean, if it starts a little wrong, that could explain the sudden. Shifts 36 hrs out...something gets sampled, models see a big difference at the start, thus the major jump in results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Wnwniner said: Do the models not initiate correct? Is this big se adjustment from sampling? I mean, if it starts a little wrong, that could explain the sudden. Shifts 36 hrs out...something gets sampled, models see a big difference at the start, thus the major jump in results? It's truly a mystery. It's apparent that the Canadian model suite saw something from the start that the GFS/ICON were clueless about 'til the end. Euro/UK were kind of the middle ground. It's just embarrassing to see the GFS & GEFS in lock-step within 48 hours of the event only to have an epic cave to other guidance. Just awful performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, RobB said: I am doubting seeing any flakes, let alone 1 to 2 inches..... Same. I was fully expecting this to go NW and just be plain rain IMBY with WAA and such. Didn’t think it would miss Ohio completely. Mother Nature getting the last laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 All the models have DGEX syndrome. What a joke! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) What's even more embarrassing is an ensemble suit should not change so drastically in 3 runs: Edited February 11 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Or at 30hrs. Watch the heavy precept band west...last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 anymore se I’m out the game in Muskingum co 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I see this got depressing real quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Found this on WeatherMadness posted it says 5 hours ago (edit - this would mean around 12:30) - more for amusement purposes: Edited February 11 by Crowbar 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 37 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: It's truly a mystery. It's apparent that the Canadian model suite saw something from the start that the GFS/ICON were clueless about 'til the end. Euro/UK were kind of the middle ground. It's just embarrassing to see the GFS & GEFS in lock-step within 48 hours of the event only to have an epic cave to other guidance. Just awful performance. Yea lots of poor performance over the last few years, just makes me wonder if the atmosphere is different. Old programming rules need updated, incorrect initial data, or combination. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I feel like we had better consistency back then <72hours. Of course we had the nor’easter to upper lake cutter run to run which was fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbelted Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 CLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, adurb44 said: I've been puzzled by this these last few years. I feel like a decade or so ago the models seemed to be much more consistent with storms. Is it possible that all the advancements in resolution and inputs has only increased the imprecision of the models? I really believe that's what's happening. Seems like the models were far more reliable back in the day. Especially the European 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I don't think I've ever seen so many epic model fails within 36 hours to an event as I've seen the past couple of years. They need to just go back to the old models at this point until they figure this out because this is embarrassing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It’s like the models try to be too perfect to the point they’re unreliable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z HRRR is only fitting for this circus. 😐 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, Grace said: 0z HRRR is only fitting for this circus. 😐 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Seen it all now, a sub 990 low in west Virginia where many areas don't even get QPF, wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z NAM is stronger but still not doing much north of the river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Congrats Kentucky and Tennessee again at this rate lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Black dot in West ky is where I live. 🙂 I've been NAMed! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 12 Admin Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Grace said: Black dot in West ky is where I live. 🙂 I've been NAMed! Enjoy. You deserve it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 hours ago, OSUWx2 said: With all due respect to @Ohiobuckeye45 and @MesoscaleBanding, I’m fine with s SE shift 🤐 I apologize to everyone for my jinx. Please forgive me 😳 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Enjoy. You deserve it. It's pretty hard to believe any model right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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