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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The changeover around Reading and just NW of philly is right around the corner. SPC meso just updated and 925 and 850s are just on the border of 0 around those areas.

I may just be able to sneak home before the rates go bonkers. Best lift should start to move in the area in the next 2 hours currently over Central and western VA.

And just like that fort indiantown/gap region now over to all snow.

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1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

But you don’t want that.

I really don't Im tired of driving in this 

Would be happy with 60's right now. it was beautiful Friday

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

I really don't Im tired of driving in this 

Would be happy with 60's right now. it was beautiful Friday

By the way, since it is dead in here now, i never posted again and left that other forum after what was said to you by the owner in that flame out. You were always top shelf forecasting, and class act. 

Anyway, glad you landed here.

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

By the way, since it is dead in here now, i never posted again and left that other forum after what was said to you by the owner in that flame out. You were always top shelf forecasting, and class act. 

Anyway, glad you landed here.

I appreciate it. It really is what it is, just glad I still get to talk about weather from time to time.

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Will be curious to see where the sweet spot ends up being with this. LV not far away from. Think this pulls outta here by 10-11. 
and if we had a block. This was 2016, 2021, 1981 or 1983- can’t remember which one of those 2. Think all i mentioned had kinda same track.

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Correlation coefficients show the rain snow line creeping south. Reading should be about to flip if it hasn't already. Auto stations don't always pick up on the changeover. Probably changeover in Lanc area and Harrisburg in the next hour.

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0C-20240213-0734-24-100.gif

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3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Correlation coefficients show the rain snow line creeping south. Reading should be about to flip if it hasn't already. Auto stations don't always pick up on the changeover. Probably changeover in Lanc area and Harrisburg in the next hour.

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-DIX-N0C-20240213-0734-24-100.gif

With this one , i found the echoes were ahead of the actual. Yea, sleet factors in, but it was still ahead by a decent amount. Talking radar.

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3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

With this one , i found the echoes were ahead of the actual. Yea, sleet factors in, but it was still ahead by a decent amount. Talking radar.

It really depends on just how heavy the precip is. When it is too light even with the R/S line nearby it probably stays as rain. Most of SEPA has not had the heavier returns those up north have seen thus far. Those areas are getting the 700mb fronto stuff right now but the heavy returns are showing up just SW of DC and will change the game real quick.

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Just dumping here, and now at 32. Winds really picking up. The wind forecasts early on were indicator that this one was gonna have juice. Winds - snow, out of ne now. 
And MJ was correct again. We have about1.5-2 here and trees are sagging. Even with wind. Power outages .

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You can see the best collocation of upper level divergence and low level convergence is getting ready to overtake the region.

925mb now almost to 0 to the PA/MD border and 850s knocking on Lancaster Harrisburg doorstep.

Just west of NYC will probably end up being the jackpot location that area stands the best chance to use almost all precip as snow versus areas SW where it took some time.

I see why St college went advisory but would not be surprised if we top at the max level for advisory.

ddiv.gif

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

You can see the best collocation of upper level divergence and low level convergence is getting ready to overtake the region.

925mb now almost to 0 to the PA/MD border and 850s knocking on Lancaster Harrisburg doorstep.

ddiv.gif

Any thoughts on where coastal pressure falls are/ location ?

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1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Any thoughts on where coastal pressure falls are/ location ?

Still aimed at southern Delmarva right now. Winds are picking up a lot here so the coastal is starting to get itself together.

My temps back at home just dropped 3 degrees in an hour and dewpoint crashed this changeover will happen real quick. Reading is now all snow.

pchg.gif

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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

It looks as though the changeover is about an hour early on all aspects from you guys in the LV to areas across SEPA.

Yea and thing was we never had much rain. It was sleet mixing in at 39 degrees. As some mentioned, really cold aloft.

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4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Still aimed at southern Delmarva right now. Winds are picking up a lot here so the coastal is starting to get itself together.

My temps back at home just dropped 3 degrees in an hour and dewpoint crashed this changeover will happen real quick. Reading is now all snow.

pchg.gif

Didnt realize that was 7z, 8z just came in

 

pchg (1).gif

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1 minute ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

Snowing like crazy here . Been for at least a hour , really heavy . At least a inch down so far 

Now the fun part to make the trip in my frito truck from here down to cressona 

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4 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Hrrrball and NAMbino that i just looked at going all stupid. Up to a foot just south of here.

I really honestly can not believe Im about to see a 6"+ storm and back towards home (NW of Philly) may get close to 10"

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1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

I really honestly can not believe Im about to see a 6"+ storm and back towards home (NW of Philly) may get close to 10"

This is one for the forecasting books. Rain getting almost to NY border to 6/10 near Philly in short forecasting window. Unbelievable .

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