RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Rickrd said: 0z Gfs 10:1. LMFAO! This is insanity. Almost every late run increased amounts again here!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: This is insanity. Almost every late run increased amounts again here!! 🤷🏼♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 Uptons latest afd. Dew points observed lower than forecast. Spoiler National Weather Service New York NY 1026 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure west of the Appalachians redevelops off the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning, and intensifies quickly as it passes south of Long Island Tuesday morning, then heads well out to sea Tuesday afternoon and night. High pressure will then return from Wednesday into Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes through Thursday night into Friday. A series of weak lows may pass across during the weekend before high pressure returns Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track and made only minor adjustments for the next few hours. The adjustments mainly had to do with dewpoint readings, as they have been coming in observed lower than previous guidance. Clouds are in the process of lowering from south to north across the area with precip, mainly light rain knocking on the door to the immediate south. Mid level and high end lower clouds over the area attm will give way to pockets of light rain moving in from the S and SW over So. NJ and the DC metro area into Virginia. This precip will advance NE, reaching most places by 07z. P-type will likely start off rain at the coast with temps falling thru the 30s and a weak elevated warm nose, then mix with snow/sleet quickly within an hour or two of onset, then mainly mostly snow towards daybreak as heavier precip starts to arrive and the column cools, with stronger dynamic cooling to ensue shortly thereafter. Inland the precip should be primarily snow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... * Winter storm to impact the area on Tuesday. * Winter storm warnings issued for NYC metro and Long Island, where there is higher confidence in at least 6 inches of snowfall. * Guidance continues to trend south. Forecast was originally based on the 12Z GFS/NAM but made some last-minute changes based on the 12Z ECMWF/NAM. This could put the metro area and Long Island more under the axis of higher QPF, with lesser amts north/west of NYC than originally anticipated. Model guidance has continued to trend south, with the 18Z ECMWF/NAM showing a tad less phasing with a northern stream shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes. This shift should lead to lower snowfall amts quite a bit across the interior, and put the axis of highest QPF either right over the NYC metro area/Long Island or just south. At the last minute blended the 12Z ECMWF with the 12Z GFS/NAM which were farther north. Did not change headlines inland but lowered snowfall amts to the 6-9 inches range across the interior, and if the southward trend continues it is possible that northern areas may less less than 6 inches of snowfall. Meanwhile confidence has increased enough in higher snowfall totals for the NYC metro and Long Island to upgrade watches to warnings for those areas. Amts will be in the 4-7 inch range around the NYC metro area were blyr temps will remain a little warmer than areas to the NW and also across Long Island. Per earlier forecasts of favorable deformation/frontogenetic forcing near the coast and negative EPV* atop the frontogenetic layer, there could be some slantwise instability and perhaps some isolated thunder as the heaviest precip moves across in the morning. QPF of 1.00-1.25 inches expected only across the NYC metro area and Long Island, with lesser amts of 3/4 to 1 inch to the north. Snow ratios at the coast will likely be low at the onset, but then increase as the snow becomes heavy (with rates at least 1-2 inches/hour) and low level winds become more northerly. In addition, NE-N winds at the height of the storm will gust to 30-40 mph, strongest along the coast. This could further restrict visibilities. However, with the wet nature of the snow, blowing snow should be at a minimum and any blizzard-like conditions should be short-lived. NW winds on the back side of the low gradually subside Tuesday night with clearing skies. Lows will be close to normal, in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, ionizer said: That is not the eye candy I came for. 2-3" does t get me up in the morning (no pun intended) lol. Here’s the 90th percentile accumulations. Not sure exactly where you are, so this may be a ‘stay in bed’ graphic for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 To Rick’s point about cold aloft, and Stretch’s about lower dew points, already sleet mixing in at 39-40 degrees! Earlier. I luv this stuff! Gonna be hard sleeping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: To Rick’s point about cold aloft, and Stretch’s about lower dew points, already sleet mixing in at 39-40 degrees! Earlier. I luv this stuff! Gonna be hard sleeping. One word for you…… WOODFORD 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 13 Admin Share Posted February 13 Just now, Rickrd said: One word for you…… WOODFORD & Oban... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: To Rick’s point about cold aloft, and Stretch’s about lower dew points, already sleet mixing in at 39-40 degrees! Earlier. I luv this stuff! Gonna be hard sleeping. I hear ya. I am going to have to force myself to sleep tonight. I get migraines due to lack of sleep. So staying up in anticipation of this storm is out of the question. Years ago I could do it without any problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 13 Admin Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, clm said: I hear ya. I am going to have to force myself to sleep tonight. I get migraines due to lack of sleep. So staying up in anticipation of this storm is out of the question. Years ago I could do it without any problems. Magnesium, Calcium, Zinc (One supplement) has always eliminated my migraines (when coffee does not). I take a half a pill and the migraine nearly instantly subsides. That withstanding, be careful not to take too much, it will knock you out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: & Oban... One of Rick’s friends at his course last week is a bourbon nut. Was telling me about a bourbon that they stick in a barrel and put in sea water. Another that is naturally smoked . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 13 Admin Share Posted February 13 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: One of Rick’s friends at his course last week is a bourbon nut. Was telling me about a bourbon that they stick in a barrel and put in sea water. Another that is naturally smoked . UM... I NEED A NEW FRIEND. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: One of Rick’s friends at his course last week is a bourbon nut. Was telling me about a bourbon that they stick in a barrel and put in sea water. Another that is naturally smoked . Jefferson’s Ocean? I’ve heard good things, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: One of Rick’s friends at his course last week is a bourbon nut. Was telling me about a bourbon that they stick in a barrel and put in sea water. Another that is naturally smoked . Sea is Jefferson's It's more a gimmick than anything... Oh and I know because: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Burr said: Jefferson’s Ocean? I’ve heard good things, too. Yes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, ionizer said: Sea is Jefferson's It's more a gimmick than anything... Oh and I know because: Ahhhh. Yes. You’re the guy! hellloooo friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, ionizer said: Sea is Jefferson's It's more a gimmick than anything... Oh and I know because: Ok, you just became my idol😍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: Ahhhh. Yes. You’re the guy! hellloooo friend. Hi. Have we met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, ionizer said: Hi. Have we met? No. But why don’t RTC and I, along with a few others, make a day trip. 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Rickrd said: No. But why don’t RTC and I, along with a few others, make a day trip. 😀 As long as you bring Monmouth county snow map candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Rickrd said: No. But why don’t RTC and I, along with a few others, make a day trip. 😀 Already packed up and put his location in Waze 👍 Edited February 13 by RTC3-LAST CHANCE Spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herricane Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, ionizer said: Sea is Jefferson's It's more a gimmick than anything... Oh and I know because: Awesome collection! I used to work for Pernod Ricard aka Jameson, Powers, Jefferson, Malibu, Absolut, plus others. Got my hands on some nice whiskeys bartering with other suppliers too. I have to make a fancy cabinet like that, all my whiskeys are in cases still 😂 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Herricane said: Awesome collection! I used to work for Pernod Ricard aka Jameson, Powers, Jefferson, Malibu, Absolut, plus others. Got my hands on some nice whiskeys bartering with other suppliers too. I have to make a fancy cabinet like that, all my whiskeys are in cases still 😂 Or buy it from Costco, but a lot more expensive now than what I paid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 13 Admin Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, ionizer said: Sea is Jefferson's It's more a gimmick than anything... Oh and I know because: 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 28 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Magnesium, Calcium, Zinc (One supplement) has always eliminated my migraines (when coffee does not). I take a half a pill and the migraine nearly instantly subsides. That withstanding, be careful not to take too much, it will knock you out. Thanks. I will have to give that a try 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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