tcari394 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Our advisory is for "up to 2 inches" .. guess they are keeping it b/c of the timing. South of here, the warning is for 2-7" Never seen that range with a warning. First time for everything with this one I guess. Meanwhile in Tioga.. WSW --> WWA --> nuffin. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, tcari394 said: Meanwhile in Tioga.. WSW --> WWA --> nuffin. I'm half way through that movie.. you spoiled the ending! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, JDClapper said: I'm half way through that movie.. you spoiled the ending! I'd like to speak to the manager. 😄 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, tcari394 said: I'd like to speak to the manager. 😄 Maybe I'll see the alternate ending where, plot twist, the WSW returns and snowl overs in the city rejoice! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Really feel for the crew north and west of here. This is a bizarre setup, and too crazy a ride. Just a few days ago we were worried than even Claps, area might changeover. Been a really huge swing in a short amount of time. And it isn’t even hitting a huge wall of cold, dry air. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, tcari394 said: I'd like to speak to the manager. 😄 WE don't have a manager You are welcome to address any concerns with our Doorman though. 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 12 Admin Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, clm said: Yeah but isn't Euro long range and thus more suited for that than short range? 4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Which kind of goes to my point of its phys package, while being great at overarching aspects, is not designed to handle all this convection. I'll never forget how in Jonas, it was LAST to the party. @Undertakerson2.0 Answered that better than I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Really feel for the crew north and west of here. This is a bizarre setup, and too crazy a ride. Just a few days ago we were worried than even Claps, area might changeover. Been a really huge swing in a short amount of time. And it isn’t even hitting a huge wall of cold, dry air. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 12 Admin Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, tcari394 said: I'd like to speak to the manager. 😄 How can I help you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Uscg Ast said: How can I help you? Punch this thing a bit further north, please 🙂 All kidding aside, I'm glad you folks further south are finally got to cash in a bit! It's been a long time coming! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Still aggressive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 432 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 13 2024 - 00Z Fri Feb 16 2024 ...Tennessee-Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Day 1-2... In the southern stream, a compact mid-to-upper level low will move across the Mid-South this evening before transitioning to a negatively-tilted open wave as it lifts from the Tennessee and Ohio valleys into the Mid-Atlantic region overnight. As the system moves into the Ohio Valley tonight, there remains a good signal for dynamic cooling, supporting rain changing to snow in the associated comm ahead as it lifts across Tennessee into central to eastern Kentucky tonight. While widespread heavy amounts are not expected, accumulating snow is likely with the potential for a stripe of mesoscale-driven, locally heavy amounts. As the system lifts to the northeast and a surface low pressure develops along the Mid-Atlantic coast, a coupled upper jet, along with low-to-mid level frontogenesis, will contribute to heavy precipitation, with a tight, heavy rain to snow gradient expected on the northwest side of the low. While a swath of heavy snow extending from portions of the central Appalachians into the Northeast remains likely, its placement remains far from certain. Even with heavy precipitation expected to unfold within the next 12-hours, this remains a low-confidence forecast. The overall model trend continued to shift south, bringing heavy snow further south and out of areas where heavy accumulations once appeared likely. While probabilities for heavy snow (greater than 6 inches) remain high across portions of eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and the NYC metro, and southern New England (Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Mass), probabilities have dropped notably further to the north. What remains more certain is that will be a fast-moving system, impacting areas from the central Appalachians to southern New England beginning overnight. The heaviest amounts overnight are expected to fall along the northern West Virginia, far western Maryland, and southwestern Pennsylvania mountains overnight. After daybreak, the focus will likely be over northern New Jersey to southern New England, but will quickly move east, with snow exiting most areas by the evening hours. Edited February 12 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 12 You know.. it’s been a crazy ride. Anyone think the SE trend was overcooked? I don’t have specific details or justification, but what’s to stop this from jogging back NW a tick or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 12 Admin Share Posted February 12 The key is the phase. If it is cleaner and the storm explodes, then we have a game on system with a substantial hit for the Tri-State. IF it develops a bit late, then C/E LI have a moderate to significant hit and the rest of the Tri-State is a left behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6;00 pm Surface. I keep noticing very little northward movement but that’s based on these. Surface maps for tha last 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Wtkidz said: 6;00 pm Surface. I keep noticing very little northward movement but that’s based on these. Surface maps for tha last 6 hours. Yeah if it keeps it up this is just going to head straight to the Carolina coastline. I know that’s dramatic but dang. Guess the HP to the north won’t play ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 https://www.njweather.org/ lots of work in 12hrs to scour it all out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WPC Short Range Discussion This storm system will arrive across the Mid-Atlantic states tonight and will transition to a strong nor'easter Tuesday morning as low pressure exits off the Mid-Atlantic coast near the Delmarva and ejects well offshore of southern New England by Tuesday night. The concern will refocus back to winter weather impacts as moisture surging northward ahead of the low center encounters sufficient levels of cold air for a swath of heavy accumulating snowfall. There continues to be an unusual amount of uncertainty with this forecast, particularly with where the axis of snowfall will develop and occur. The latest guidance suggests heavy snowfall occurring from southern New England down into southern Pennsylvania/New Jersey. Generally, between 6-12 inches are probable for portions of the aforementioned areas. The nor'easter will bring strong winds to the region on Tuesday which coupled with the heavy snowfall could damage trees and power lines. The strong winds will also bring a threat for coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like Binghamton the last holdout.. or just slow to update at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Penn State said: You know.. it’s been a crazy ride. Anyone think the SE trend was overcooked? I don’t have specific details or justification, but what’s to stop this from jogging back NW a tick or 2? Closing in. T minus 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Looks like Binghamton the last holdout.. or just slow to update at this point I think Mount Holly is holding out too. Still calling for coating to an 1” here NW of Philly. No WWA, watches or warnings. No idea what they are looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 More Mes"periments" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Down to the low 20s up here, about 10 degrees colder than forecasted. It's probably part of the wall keeping this storm south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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