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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Regardless, theres a definite trend in this storm becoming a big deal, somewhere.

I think so too.. Based upon what I've seen so far, looks like I-80 on north. However, I think there's potential all the way down in to NOVA. 

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More separation with that lead wave near the Eastern great lakes. There were some inland/Apps runner type looking solutions in the ensembles, so can't totally rule that out.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend(1).thumb.gif.1ef281db40f809ae98490c2b3bb2021f.gif

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5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looks a little slower in it's evolution compared to the eye catching 6z. H7 southern parcel looks robust.

gfs_z700_vort_us_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.62a6fd03bb16d1ee7d26b2b77052ad1d.gif

There should be more interaction with the northern stream by the looks of it at hr 126..definitely should be a more western solution ergo even apps runner ish

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This is a delicate balance. I know it seems counterintuitive, but need that northern stream to come in faster. The southern energy is going to want to lift poleward, and it's looking strong currently, which gives a lot of "oomph" potential.  But without a digging, well timed northern wave it'll be a tough slog.

 Even getting the southern wave to close off and/or have a little negative tilt might help.

 Need something to keep 4 corners lows from gaining too much latitude.

 

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This is not usually a snow storm for the lower half of SNE

image.thumb.png.498e4c1060faecd28b005847b9136dc8.png

Unless it's bombing out, which the pressure drop from 987 to 982 in 3 hrs says it is

image.thumb.png.11c3d3e9dc0beb53d7e9782694b8bd65.png

 

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That run shouldn't get anyone to high or low. Good pieces are still in close to the right spots for a really nice storm. 

 Not really giving the Icon a ton of credit.

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

I'm starting to feel a bout of optimism creeping up within me.  Euro, GFS, Icon and the UKMET all on board?

image.thumb.png.8f033816d5e446dae70d9b5dff041faf.png

NBM too

image.thumb.png.22d719b78525bf1e67e98b65edace99c.png

But here comes the Navy to spoil the vibe

image.thumb.png.041a2499d01596980169617591716828.png

That feeling lasted 2 hrs, replaced by a sense of impending disappointment yet awe, which I'm sure by tomorrow morning/late tonight will be something completely different.

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Pivotal's precip type is messing with me.  This skew has temps over 0c from 850mb on down.  Precip type is snow?

image.thumb.png.a4bff1439811af8bd9bed6c24fbc93de.png

Couple hours later, when the bulk of the precip comes in (yellow imby) the entire column down to just above the surface is at or below 0c

image.thumb.png.439f98fecc3008f7f6d55b574c828ebb.png

image.png.1acd2ac9ef6484a62849750268ba3090.png

Rain?

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NOticed the 12z GFS shifted northward giving me rain.  

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Pivotal's precip type is messing with me.  This skew has temps over 0c from 850mb on down.  Precip type is snow?

image.thumb.png.a4bff1439811af8bd9bed6c24fbc93de.png

Couple hours later, when the bulk of the precip comes in (yellow imby) the entire column down to just above the surface is at or below 0c

image.thumb.png.439f98fecc3008f7f6d55b574c828ebb.png

image.png.1acd2ac9ef6484a62849750268ba3090.png

Rain?

Yep, its the Long Island Syndrome.

And yes I am coining that phrase.  It means the snow line ends at LI and turns to rain.

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