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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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2 minutes ago, twinmama08 said:

 

This is a useful product.  Does it exist for other places or is NY just testing it out?

How did you arrive to that graphic?  I'd like to see if it exists for other areas

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10 minutes ago, clm said:

How long it takes to change over is going to drastically affect you and me.  North of me won't see much rain if any at all.  Again, LI on that blasted rain/snow line

We always are on that R/S line or it's always 10-20 miles south or north. 

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13 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

I’m trying to remember where you are - Creamridge area? My folks are about 20 mins SW of you. Going to be a tight gradient 

Yes, Cream Ridge, a mile from Gamblers and Cream Ridge golf courses. Going to be touch and go as always here. 

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3 minutes ago, clm said:

Frustrating as **** isn't it?

Im with you guys. Always seems to be that way here. Good news for me is if we get that tiny bit of cold air needed say a few hours earlier, we could get smoked

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5 minutes ago, clm said:

How did you arrive to that graphic?  I'd like to see if it exists for other areas

It's in their powerpoint presentation on the NYC page

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2 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Will be puking snow in CNJ if RGEM is right. 😁

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

Right over LI is that very heavy snow.  Not a big snowstorm in terms of size, but the heaviest snow is there upping the totals for LI pretty good

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On 2/9/2024 at 7:36 PM, StretchCT said:

Not seeing a lot of room to go much further north, at least trackwise.  Precipwise I'd have to look at how dry it is and how sharp that cutoff will be.  There could be some room there.

But back to the track. The way things look now there's a decent westerly flow over the northern tier of states courtesy of that 516 UL in Quebec.  This moment is the only I can see that allows for further movement north . There is a little break in the flow but it's pretty late by then.  Now if that low is further north or further west, then sure it can come all the way up to Nova Scotia.  But right now, theres too much pushing down from the north.  

image.thumb.png.32802eb0cc0af816bac6fff6df8fad40.png

Lots of westerly flow ahead of it, then it gets broken up by the UL, and then that shortwave comes behind and kicks it out.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh72-108(1).thumb.gif.45bf434f1c6d974c8dac793ba0735151.gif

 

This aged well, guess we'll see tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, clm said:

Right over LI is that very heavy snow.  Not a big snowstorm in terms of size, but the heaviest snow is there upping the totals for LI pretty good

Yeah, LI is going to be crushed here. 

 

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17 minutes ago, LUCC said:

We always are on that R/S line or it's always 10-20 miles south or north. 

While frustrating, it also makes for the hardest hits with regard to snow when you are just north of that line. Makes for some really special hits at times. 

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Just now, Uscg Ast said:

Yeah, LI is going to be crushed here. 

 

That is if it doesn't 🤬 shift the wrong way.  

But yes, should not treat this lightly here.

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Just now, Uscg Ast said:

While frustrating, it also makes for the hardest hits with regard to snow when you are just north of that line. Makes for some really special hits at times. 

And also hardest to predict if we're getting any snow or not.

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Wow, so watching replay of yesterdays golf, and a nws alert came out for Coastal flooding due to high tides For parts of Jersey coast Monday morn thru Wed morning! And now you have a strong coastal?? Seems like that could be serious.

I'm not much into golf, but I could get into this.

 

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4 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Wow, so watching replay of yesterdays golf, and a nws alert came out for Coastal flooding due to high tides For parts of Jersey coast Monday morn thru Wed morning! And now you have a strong coastal?? Seems like that could be serious.

 

They really need to work on their color differentiation.  But yeah even LI is under a Gale Warning in the ocean with a small craft advisory in the Sound.

So far no high tide warnings for LI, but I may have missed it.

 

image.png.b45dd0e9a4d9d97699e4faf85e4f0cfe.png

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Current NWS Forecast: Vernon, NJ

Detailed Forecast

This Afternoon
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight
A slight chance of rain and snow before 1am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind around 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
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