February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm

[Rickrd]

time will tell boys and girls....

[HVSNOWSTORM]

[Rickrd]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

It was just a touch late with the main thrust of the northern stream - verbatim, it bombed out, just a touch east. 

It would have cranked down more cold had it ingested that parcel. 

Yes. Very close as clap stated. Still some things to iron out. Like the potential though.

[Penn State]

20 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

This is microcasting.. but would make me happy! 

[Wtkidz]

Again the next round will different. I think I am  channeling my inner Snobal. 

[MaineJay]

GEFS spaghetti at hour 120. 12 hours, maybe bigger?, discrepancies in the northern stream.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

This seems to be coming down to have to have exact timing or else it's not even a question. 

Marginal temps at best with no antecedent cold, fast mover involving two jets (as opposed to overrunning situations), - needs to crank its own cold...blah blah blah

Ugh. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

I mean, if ONLY we had a nice fat Canadian HP for this to unfold into. 

NOPE!

[Wtkidz]

Sterlings  AFD

 

High pressure will influence the area on Sunday with a frontal
boundary settled further south of the region. Temperatures will
remain elevated in the upper 50s to low 60s during the day with only
slight chance PoPs across the area ahead of the work week. A low
pressure system will likely begin to approach the area late Sunday
into early Monday. Precipitation will be more concentrated with this
system compared to the previous frontal passages. There still remain
some uncertainties with this system. Some of the ensembles have
wintry precipitation funneling into the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday. Given the synoptic pattern, it will take a
strengthening cold air blast to be settled into the area ahead or
along the precipitation shield. We will continue to monitor this
system over the next several days. A cooling pattern will likely
take place shortly after this event.

[NEPAsnow]

18Z EURO?

[Paletitsnow63]

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

18Z EURO?

Only goes out to hour 90

[Rickrd]

Not bad. 0z GFS. Many more iterations to come. Give it til Saturday to iron out.  

Edited February 7 by Rickrd

[Undertakerson2.0]

If it would have ANY cold air to work with other than its own - AND would stay for more than a demi tasse of cafe, it could have put down even more snow for all. 

As is, it has zero cold air waiting for it, it does phase and bomb in time for Eastern and New England

Not too shabby I guess. Doesn't look like a huge PITA

[Undertakerson2.0]

Multi model comparison

 

[MaineJay]

0z EPS  must have some phased members in there. 

 

GEFS also with a few well developed cyclones. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Patchy but I think covers nearly everyone except Chez Moi

 

[MaineJay]

GYX 

Quote

More widespread shower chances return Monday through Tuesday as
models continue to try to nail down the track and intensity of
a low pressure system that looks to pass southeast of the
region. The 00Z suite of global models have trended it further
to the west and now close enough to spread precipitation into
the area, but they are likely to continue to waffle. This will
be an important trend to keep an eye on, but for now will stick
with messaging just a chance for precipitation we get closer in
time and models begin to stick to a solution.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Spoiler

Mild, tranquil and dry weather continues through Thursday with temperatures trending well above historical averages into late week. Early Spring-like conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with some light rain at times and temperatures peaking near record levels for early February. A pattern shift to back to more seasonable winter cold is likely by Valentines Day and could be preceded/ushered in by a storm system early next week.

CTP painting 30% SN POP for Tues. Temps on Monday and Tues in lower 40's - portends a white rain scenario. 

Edited February 7 by Undertakerson2.0

[MaineJay]

WPC, my bolding. 

Quote

Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

200 AM EST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 14 2024

...Overview...

An upper shortwave/possible compact closed low over the Southwest should mostly hold through the region before beginning to shift eastward with time across the Southern tier of the U.S. as upper ridging tries to build back over the Northwest. This will initially bring some mountain snows to parts of the Four Corners region, but the overall general pattern continues to favor increasing rainfall potential downstream across the Mid-South/Southeast this weekend, and possible eventual lifting of a deepening East Coast to western Atlantic cyclone. Strong upper ridging ahead of this system will support much above normal temperatures as well across the East through Sunday, while period energy intrusions into the Western ridge brings generally light precipitation to parts of the Pacific Northwest. By the middle of next week, the flow across the CONUS should turn more zonal bringing calm and mostly dry conditions to much of the country.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

There remains good agreement on the overall pattern evolution across the CONUS during the period, but plenty of uncertainty in the details and timing of individual systems. The system of greatest interest, with the most sensible weather implications, is the potent shortwave exiting the Southwest into the Southern U.S. this weekend/early next week. Compared to prior runs, there has been some narrowing of the forecast spread for this system, but still some key differences in the timing of this system through the Southeast Monday-Tuesday. Yesterday's 12z ECMWF was a clear very slow outlier compared to the rest of the deterministic guidance/ensemble means, but it's new 00z run tonight came in better line with consensus. Some run to run variability, but the GFS has actually been the most consistent with this system the past day or so. Even with the newest 00z runs tonight, there remains uncertainty in the timing, strength, and exact track of this system, but overall there seems to be more agreement which bolsters forecast confidence somewhat. There was enough agreement for this weekend to use a purely deterministic model blend for the WPC forecast for tonight, but did use a non-ECMWF blend for the later periods with the ensemble means. This maintained good continuity with the previous WPC forecast.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

General broad troughing over the Southwest should keep the Western U.S. periodically active with widespread lower elevation rain/mountain snows through Saturday with the best snow potential should be over the favored terrain of the Four Corners states. Precipitation may clear out of much of the Intermountain West by Sunday, but one or more progressive systems could bring episodes of light to moderate totals to the Pacific Northwest.

A trailing cold front should focus moisture and some instability to produce rain across the Mid-South this weekend aided by shortwave energy out of the Southwest. This may increase potential for training/repeat showers and thunderstorms over some areas, but with still a lot of spread in the details and corresponding location/magnitude/timing of the heaviest rainfall. Ensembles suggest the primary region that requires monitoring extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast/Gulf Coast where soil moisture values are above normal in some places. There was enough consensus in the guidance for the introduction of a marginal risk across the general region on both the Day 4/Saturday and Day 5/Sunday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. Meanwhile, the far northern fringe of the moisture shield could produce some snow from the weekend into early next week, but highly uncertain and dependent on the exact track of the very uncertain low pressure system out of the south-central states. There is with the past guidance cycle some trend toward low development up and off the East Coast into Monday and Tuesday, albeit mainly contingent on still uncertain stream phasings. This type of scenario does offer more potential for lifting/wrapping rains with focus up the Mid-Atlantic and some window for snow for marginally cooler areas from the Appalachians through the interior Northeast. The upper ridge progressing from the eastern U.S. into the western Atlantic late this week will support a broad area of unseasonably warm temperatures across the Ohio Valley/East Coast. Departures from normal should eventually become somewhat less extreme with time but daytime highs on Saturday could be 10-20+ above normal, with some potential for daily temperature records. In contrast, the Southwest U.S./California should be persistently cool, especially for daytime highs that may be up to 10-15F below normal into the weekend. This region should begin to see a moderating trend by Sunday or Monday. Clouds/precipitation over the West should keep most morning lows within a few degrees on either side of normal but a few localized cooler spots are possible. By Tuesday-Wednesday, much of the CONUS should be near or within a few degrees of normal as more zonal flow evolves.

Santorelli

 

[MaineJay]

EPS looks like a 25-30% shot up this way. Not sure anything week be left on ground by then, but there are many times that a some warmth melts what's on the ground just before more falls. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Better phase, 

Still not clean, but better

Hey NOW!!

 

Edited February 7 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Zoinks!

 

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Zoinks!

 

If the. NAVGEM is the most progressive, it means it cuts through Wisconsin!?!?

🤪  probably way too fast with some northern stream features leading to an early phase.   Just wasn't expecting to see it near Fort Wayne.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Portrait of a bomber 

[MaineJay]

H7 trend,  could be a potent little buggah.