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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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8 minutes ago, LloydM said:

Hi All! First time poster.  But been following and learning from u all since the AccuWeather days.  Great read.  So much knowledge and personality here.  It’s great.  
 

Was just curious to hear anyone’s thoughts on long range HRRR. Is it a useful tool? Or too unreliable in long range? that was quite the 18z run for those on the south edge of this.  
 

thanks!

I don't think it was set up to do long range.  NCEP is fiddling around with models trying to consolidate. They've got the RAP, HRRR, FV3 and NAM that they were talking about rolling into the RRFS.  I rarely hear anyone or read any discussions where the HRRR is cited beyond 18 hrs or verifications.  But it is interesting. And thanks for being a donor!

Edited by StretchCT
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1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I'm good if it stays up your way, John. Honest Injun I am. 

It crazy how delicate this is .. ensembles always had those "duds" in there.  While low chance, not zero.  I'm still 51% confident this is just typical inside 48 hour headfake wiggles.  General idea of NPA through Southern NE being "the zone" probably occurs.  But hey, we'll know for sure Tuesday morning 🙂 

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