Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 I won't lie, I've been telling folks close to me not to worry about this storm too much, so I'm rooting for the south push. Box and whiskers plots from GYX are pretty funny too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The saying is that blue (40-50%) usually verifies. Puppy bowl is on... They're more interested in food, ear scratches and belly rubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The saying is that blue (40-50%) usually verifies. Puppy bowl is on... Rooting for Emily and Jade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This was issued at 18:49Z, so hot off the presses. Is one allowed to use the word "hot" during a winter storm discussion?? (haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Clapper - 48 hour head fake? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 Some SREF plume trends in the NE Oxford Waterbury White Plains Bradley Worcester Pittsfield POU Boston PVD Portland And to show how far south it dropped, Rutland, which went from 8" to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Clapper - 48 hour head fake? Corresponds with this perhaps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Expected the 1-80 numbers to come down after the 12z suite ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Clapper - 48 hour head fake? Yeah, I think at this point it's just a wait and see .. typical ebs and flows. In my opinion of course. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Some SREF plume trends in the NE Oxford Waterbury White Plains Bradley Worcester Pittsfield POU Boston PVD Portland And to show how far south it dropped, Rutland, which went from 8" to 3" Mine are definitely propped up by some ambitious members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some SREF 24 hour trends. Kinda odd .. it lost some faith in 1" 4" pops.. axis's shifted south. Guess there's just still uncertainty in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hot off the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On the road. Does anyone have EPS kuchera ? It's gone south also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 (edited) Oxford by example went from 1.06" of qpf to 0.92. So a 0.14" drop. Snowfall went from 7.6 to 6.3. While there was an earlier changeover of ptype in the 9z run, I think most of the drop of 1.3" in snow can be from the 0.14" in qpf. South of me its less of a QPF loss. North of me its all QPF loss. Edited February 11 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, mikeysed said: On the road. Does anyone have EPS kuchera ? It's gone south also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Hot off the press. Oh damn.. didn't know it had the potential to be a decent storm up here. Our pup will be thrilled with some deeper snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: That energy diving from great slave lake to lake Winnepeg is on its horse. The more I stare at this, the more I convince myself the baroclinic zone is getting nudged SE by that lake Winnipeg shortwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Haven't really watched this one but quite a jump for the folks in "the great valley" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Hrrr looks like a bomb. Can’t post , driving Edited February 11 by GregRups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, GregRups said: Hrrr looks like a bomb. Can post, driving fwiw (backs up dump truck of salt) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 early NAM frames look colder here in PA etc (out to Hr 30 so far) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LloydM Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hi All! First time poster. But been following and learning from u all since the AccuWeather days. Great read. So much knowledge and personality here. It’s great. Was just curious to hear anyone’s thoughts on long range HRRR. Is it a useful tool? Or too unreliable in long range? that was quite the 18z run for those on the south edge of this. thanks! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 H7 trend makes it look like the NAMmer reaching for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, LloydM said: Hi All! First time poster. But been following and learning from u all since the AccuWeather days. Great read. So much knowledge and personality here. It’s great. Was just curious to hear anyone’s thoughts on long range HRRR. Is it a useful tool? Or too unreliable in long range? that was quite the 18z run for those on the south edge of this. thanks! I don't trust HRRR past Hr08 let alone Hr48. It's a super short range model. I do know a couple pro mets who like it more than NAM though - so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: early NAM frames look colder here in PA etc (out to Hr 30 so far) Lower heights in our area, lower temps. That shortwave over MN/WI still has me dreaming of what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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