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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Well to be fair, it's probably just me being AR about taking the time to get it right. 

Very little chance - in fact, I'd call it zero. 

That's the spirit.

So called "Pro" forecasters supposed to be better than to be less than accurate. ESPECIALLY since they know that the world is reading and will correct where the AI Overlord "Auto Correct" fails. 

I am old school law student where what you write actually matters. ONE wrong word can skew an entire page/chapter of text. So yeah, I'm "that guy" and will NEVER apologize for being so. 

 

I'll jump into the fray here.  To support Undertakerson - he can also shut off auto-correct.  I have mine off, so all spelling errors are my own special creation and lack of proofreading.  For a Pro, spell check should be an automatic, With that, I'm off to the kitchen to break in the new Belgian waffle maker the in-laws got us for Christmas.  Malted Buttermilk Waffles anyone?

 

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2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

ST had the BEST Scotch - and he made it habit to do so. 

I believe this organization is on its way to being a 501(c)3 thanks to certain members (cough cough, I don't believe they want to be named? If I am wrong... Please lmk so I can post our thanks to you everywhere :)). A golf outing would be a GREAT way to raise money, especially if it's tax deductible 😉

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2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I believe this organization is on its way to being a 501(c)3 thanks to certain members (cough cough, I don't believe they want to be named? If I am wrong... Please lmk so I can post our thanks to you everywhere :)). A golf outing would be a GREAT way to raise money, especially if it's tax deductible 😉

Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley?  It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets".  And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool.

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1 minute ago, MainelySnow said:

Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley?  It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets".  And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool.

Right off my back yard is CC of Harrisburg. It has golf and sporting clays range. Too bad it's a private club

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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1 minute ago, MainelySnow said:

Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley?  It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets".  And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool.

Neat idea. That could be pretty cool. @StretchCTYou gonna help me with setting up the insurance on this one? 😎

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7 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

image.thumb.png.9566308290f2a599b3222c2a

Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. 

Note - anyone just north of that transition line is gonna be pounded for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind.

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Verification scores at 3 days.  Interestingly the 12z GFS Ensemble mean is performing the best. 

image.thumb.png.b8ad14f65a128aeea98d897534957228.png

was thinking about these the other day

Does it not make sense that 12z outscores 00z? It's kind of like BlackJack - he who goes last wins most. 

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Told RickRd yesterday afternoon, models were too warm , north for our area - 4-8 seemed a safe bet. Just made sense with the real track and colder air pouring in. Sometimes memory is the best forecaster. USGA nailed it- fresh vs. stale cold. 
The wind forecasts sure were a sign that this puppy would have some vigor. Now latest precipitation forecasts of over an inch may lead to higher amounts in the hills here.

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3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. 

Note - anyone just north of thst transition line is gonna be pounced for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind.

HRRR kidna shows that

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

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Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Told RickRd yesterday afternoon, models were too warm , north for our area - 4-8 seemed a safe bet. Just made sense with the real track and colder air pouring in. Sometimes memory is the best forecaster. USGA nailed it- fresh vs. stale cold. 
The wind forecasts sure were a sign that this puppy would have some vigor. Now latest precipitation forecasts of over an inch may lead to higher amounts in the hills here.

Yes - that comment ranks right up there with the "better" analysis we (meaning collectively and not to mean myself included) bring to the fore. 

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Early frame indicators of GFS show the SLP approx. 50-100mi S/E of modeled depiction of 6z (storm is still in the TN Valley) 

Hr 33 - that tendency continues with the SLP starting to climb latitude 

Hr 42 - SLP well S of 6z

 

trend-gfs-2024021112-f042.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Early frame indicators of GFS show the SLP approx. 50-100mi S/E of modeled depiction of 6z (storm is still in the TN Valley) 

seems to be getting closer to a nuetral tilt and less positive? or is it related to confluence?

Edited by NEPAsnow
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