Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Holding steady down on the S fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z. Nice post. Let’s see if the 12z suite latches onto that. Seems like there’s always last second wiggles. “Windshield wiper effect”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Holding steady down on the S fringe Avoca airport, which is roughly 12 miles to my south has been steadily increasing. I’m content for now, until I hear pinging. Then I go on a rampage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Avoca airport, which is roughly 12 miles to my south has been steadily increasing. I’m content for now, until I hear pinging. Then I go on a rampage. Well good news! It's probably a straight rain/ snow type event. I don't think sleet factors in. NAM looks maybe a hair stronger, a bit south, reaching a tad more for the coast at hour 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Well good news! It's probably a straight rain/ snow type event. I don't think sleet factors in. NAM looks maybe a hair stronger, a bit south, reaching a tad more for the coast at hour 22. Sleet, rain…lol it’s all the same. That’s a good sign 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This area is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. The NWS/B-N Office Discussion of this pending coastal storm: Spoiler Monday Night through Tuesday... The main focus of the extended. A slightly negatively tilted trough will be located over the Mid Mississippi River and TN Valley Mon evening. The trough deepens as it digs into the Mid Atlantic by early Tue and into the Gulf of ME/Nova Scotia by late Tue. In response to the trough low pressure lifts across the TN/OH Valley Mon Night into early Tue. A secondary low develops over VA/the Mid Atlantic early on Tue. The secondary low rapidly deepens as it lifts northeastward just to the S/SE of our region on Tue and toward Nova Scotia by late on Tue. Overall the previous shifts forecast looked pretty good with the latest guidance coming in. Main change in the latest update was bumping up QPF and snowfall totals. Due to this have also expanded the Winter Storm Watch another tier to the northwest and southeast. Finally, opted to hoist a High Wind Watch across Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. Will cover more details below. Synoptic details... Guidance really coming into really good agreement on the timing and intensity of this upcoming system with a rapidly deepening 980 hPa low or lower sliding through. We`ve still got some uncertainty on the exact track with GEFS/EPS along with their deterministic counterparts sliding near or just to the NW of the benchmark and stronger solutions. The GEPS along with the GEM/NAM/UKMET guidance track further to the southeast of the benchmark and just a bit weaker. The other question is the marginal temperatures that we will be dealing with, which would create ptype issues essentially along/SE of the I-95 corridor. QPF/Snowfall details... Given the differences described in the synoptic section. If near/just NW of the benchmark verifies we have more QPF/accumulating snow across the much of the interior into northern portions of the I- 95 corridor. The solution further to the SE would highlight more impact wise across the south coast and lower snowfall totals across the interior. This can be seen pretty clearly via the total QPF AOA 1 inch. The GEFS/EPS are much more amped up with moderate to high probs (40-80+ percent) through the system across southern New England. This makes sense as we get a more amped up system with a 30- 50+ kt NE to N jet sliding through as the system deepens. The weaker/SE solutions keep that jet mostly offshore, which keeps our QPF total AOA 1 inch in the low to mod range (10-50 percent) from roughly the MA turnpike to the south coast per the GEPS. This also shows up quite well in the probs of snowfall amounts AOA 6 inches where they are mod to high per the GEFS/EPS guidance across much of the interior. The GEPS is more muted and shifted toward the south coast, but has been trending further to the N/NW as time has gone on. Leaned more toward the consistent GEFS/EPS guidance at this time, which supports bumping up QPF and snowfall amounts. As mentioned there may be some issues for portions of the I-95 corridor into SE MA with marginal temps. May have a situation where it is snowing, but we eat away at the accumulation a bit on the front end of the system. Winds... Given have leaned toward the EPS/GEFS guidance did make some adjustments to the NBM wind speeds. Does appear we should have fairly good mixing per GFS Bufkit soundings across SE MA with a couple hours of 40-50+ kts potentially mixing down. Best shot appears across the Cape, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket as the low is rapidly deepening. There is also a pretty good pressure rise/fall couplet as well, signally the potential for strong to perhaps damaging winds. As a result have hoisted a High Wind Watch. This will couple with the high astro tides and result in some coastal flooding issues. See the section below for more detailed information on this risk. Impacts... The peak of the storm is anticipated Tue AM and perhaps into the afternoon for some eastern areas with the comma head. This will result in a tricky commute for both the AM and PM. Does appear that there could be a timeframe for 1-3 inch per hour snowfall rates possible with strong lift within the DGZ. Power outages also a potential concern given the marginal temps resulting in heavy wet snow that could weigh on tree limbs and powerlines. This coupled with the gusty winds could result in issues for some spots. And the snow graphic has been updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquallBall Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I REFUSE to pay heed to anyone who can't differentiate the words "except" and "expect". I mean I know he uses all the correct letters - but to not use the word the that makes contextual sense (except), leaves me doubting his ability to put other basic concepts to use correctly. Geez, I read one yesterday and could not believe how bad the grammar was. I thought it was a one off… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 27 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lat 4 NAM3. Still not far enough with with the 0°C line perhaps. But baby steps in a positive direction. At initialization. Any chance for a more powder/less wet snow in SNE? I don't need a foot of cement snow - NWS forecast for my area: Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 hours ago, Rickrd said: I am all in it for this! LETS GO! I’m there for the 19th hole only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 There’s a lot of red and yellow on this map but the upper air temperatures point pretty strictly to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Tropical seems to show it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Clapper getting NAM’D 20+ for clapp on the NAM 😂😂 Edited February 11 by Anthonyweather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, BossaNova said: Any chance for a more powder/less wet snow in SNE? I don't need a foot of cement snow - NWS forecast for my area: Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Unfortunately, that aspect probably won't change much. Feels like most of the areas that get snow, will get sticky stuff, and the wind could be brisk. It is deepening at a respectable rate, so winds, and even coastal flooding are concerns. I haven't checked the timing, but tides are running elevated to start with. Her forward speed might mitigate some effects at least, provided there isn't some slowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 11 Meteorologist Share Posted February 11 Perfectly fine with white rain down here. Enjoy your snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I REFUSE to pay heed to anyone who can't differentiate the words "except" and "expect". I mean I know he uses all the correct letters - but to not use the word the that makes contextual sense (except), leaves me doubting his ability to put other basic concepts to use correctly. Auto correct changes things you type to words that don't even make sense. The message he was sending was understood regardless if he got 2 Letters incorrect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said: It’s going to snow very hard Wherever that heavy snow axis lines up over Pa into SNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 11 Meteorologist Share Posted February 11 Also quite the paste job as others have mentioned. Temps are virtually isothermal to about 650mb for the larger portion of QPF would not be surprised if it is between 8:1 and 10:1 (going on the lower as there is a lot of warm air still around across much of PA). Still models are throwing 1- 1.5" of QPF out there so in the heaviest axis a solid 8-14" is reasonable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 hours ago, StretchCT said: Rio sounds fun right about now 🎉😏 Look around for Carlos aka @polarvortex Yes I was thinking of him (Carlos)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Flying back from Universal Orlando today. It was nice to not model watch the last few days but it’s nice to have a snowstorm on our door steps. Feels like the biggest snowstorm in awhile is coming. Time to get back to tracking full time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 46 minutes ago, SquallBall said: Geez, I read one yesterday and could not believe how bad the grammar was. I thought it was a one off… Well to be fair, it's probably just me being AR about taking the time to get it right. 43 minutes ago, BossaNova said: Any chance for a more powder/less wet snow in SNE? I don't need a foot of cement snow - NWS forecast for my area: Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a north wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Very little chance - in fact, I'd call it zero. 40 minutes ago, Burr said: I’m there for the 19th hole only. That's the spirit. 30 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Auto correct changes things you type to words that don't even make sense. The message he was sending was understood regardless if he got 2 Letters incorrect. So called "Pro" forecasters supposed to be better than to be less than accurate. ESPECIALLY since they know that the world is reading and will correct where the AI Overlord "Auto Correct" fails. I am old school law student where what you write actually matters. ONE wrong word can skew an entire page/chapter of text. So yeah, I'm "that guy" and will NEVER apologize for being so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) IKEY is very much SOUTH after having lead the Northern march yesterday Edited February 11 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 52 minutes ago, Burr said: I’m there for the 19th hole only. That hole has the best scotch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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