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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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850s look like they are cooling off at least on schedule, maybe even a tad quicker glancing at the models. 

FV3 seems to usually run warm, so interesting to see what it spat out.

Screenshot_20240210_221854_Chrome.thumb.jpg.cf121f3d326e3e0d4509fadb9c1dbb1a.jpg

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I saw JB tweet that the AI models have mostly been further south than the consensus with this one so far .. so will be a decent test on if our robot overlords can do better than the legacy models

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Our favorite norther outlier, still north... but also a little south.  Follow?

Edit:  Looks more like just shaving some off the top .. no real additions on the southern fringe

 

trend-icon-2024021100-f072.snku_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

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5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Our favorite norther outlier, still north... but also a little south.  Follow?

Edit:  Looks more like just shaving some off the top .. no real additions on the southern fringe

 

trend-icon-2024021100-f072.snku_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

I went from 4.0 to 1,3 to 4.0

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Some important shortwaves are moving through the Yukon.  Kinda the last pieces to the puzzle.  It looks like the impulse near great slave lake helps with the cold push at 850mb just ahead of the storm.  Sometimes with satellite gathered data, very northerly features are actually a bit further south than what the satellite "sees" due to the angle of view (parallax effect).   So I can see how the northern stream features from high latitude may come in a hair quicker than modeled. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-global-northernhemiwest-08-02_50Z-20240211_map_noBar-25-6n-10-100.thumb.gif.2674f45a1e44b7c2a0769450271c6aa4.gif

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7 hours ago, SpaceSlave said:

Random thought.....been lurking and learning since the accuweather days!   Somehow managed to find the new site each time (by the way, where have you been MDbr? 😞 ).  What if the leaders (Uscg, UTS,  et al) started an annual golf outing?   There could be a little weather expert council discussing the chances for a 80"+ season pre golf 🙂,  then an outing to raise money for the site.  Seems to be a lot of golfers in here, others could just come to drink (RTC etc).  A nice course south of Allentown over to central Jersey.  Some decent tracks in that block.  Could be a great annual event every late summer/early fall...

@MaineJay @BuckeyeGal @Mainiac

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