DanaEaves Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 With these slight shifts like the GFS, and I’m saying this as someone who has read and watched every blessed word on these forums since accuweather, don’t they always do this about 3 days out? Because the long range models are getting out of range at this point? I might be making no sense whatsoever, but it seems to me, things get wacky about 3 days out but then come back somewhat to the original solution at storm time. anyone remember the storm years and years ago the day after Christmas that the gfs had go out to sea and then late Xmas eve/early Xmas day it came back to the original solution? But everyone had already been like “snowstorm is cancelled”? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, marathongoalie said: Aftwr this event gfs is really bad if you like snow Not sure why you are posting this negativism here, but ya might want to look at all the looks for 17-19, and 23-24. Both have real shots. Let’s concentrate negativism for this one 😀😀 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceSlave Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Entire west coast swing been pretty bad. Back in the old days when they got weather, it was ours a few days later many times. That was back in the days before the Pac started taking ‘roids. Feels like an eternity with the "pacific warm air flood", since 2015-16? If anyone can explain what might change that in future years (back to a slower-flow blocky pattern), I'd appreciate the knowledge. It's obvious on the water loops now how fast things seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, SpaceSlave said: Feels like an eternity with the "pacific warm air flood", since 2015-16? If anyone can explain what might change that in future years (back to a slower-flow blocky pattern), I'd appreciate the knowledge. It's obvious on the water loops now how fast things seem. Theories abound, but one that i have looked into quite a bit, cuz i have been bitching since the original Accu about the increasing PAC influence. There is an ever growing warm pool of water in western Pacific- growing rapidly. Really influencing. So storms like this one that were marginal 10 years ago, are struggling more now. Again, not the place for this, but in mid - Feb with this track, should be seeing more white than wet. Also messing with Mr. Overrated anymore- MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: Well I may just get 10 flakes if I am lucky. red dot in that light blue area in Virginia is approx location of my home. usually we are under the grey. Must be something weird Looks like NSW isn’t expecting much more than some wet snowflakes here in Hagerstown MD area, so I feel your pain there Wtkidz. I’ll be closer to the snow so maybe I can climb up on my roof and watch the snow pile up in PA, lol. Rooting for folks north of me to get snow! Happy if someone, anyone gets snow at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, DanaEaves said: With these slight shifts like the GFS, and I’m saying this as someone who has read and watched every blessed word on these forums since accuweather, don’t they always do this about 3 days out? Because the long range models are getting out of range at this point? I might be making no sense whatsoever, but it seems to me, things get wacky about 3 days out but then come back somewhat to the original solution at storm time. anyone remember the storm years and years ago the day after Christmas that the gfs had go out to sea and then late Xmas eve/early Xmas day it came back to the original solution? But everyone had already been like “snowstorm is cancelled”? Lol Model Hugging is a lifelong debilitating disease. 😂 Its is mostly spread by adult men who reside in their mothers basement and troll weather forums daily At least that's what my mamma told me!!!!! 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, DanaEaves said: With these slight shifts like the GFS, and I’m saying this as someone who has read and watched every blessed word on these forums since accuweather, don’t they always do this about 3 days out? Because the long range models are getting out of range at this point? I might be making no sense whatsoever, but it seems to me, things get wacky about 3 days out but then come back somewhat to the original solution at storm time. anyone remember the storm years and years ago the day after Christmas that the gfs had go out to sea and then late Xmas eve/early Xmas day it came back to the original solution? But everyone had already been like “snowstorm is cancelled”? Lol I don't think you're imagining this. Maybe we could argue the days lead time of where it makes whacky changes (i.e., "mid-range crisis") but tbh, this season I've found that the general idea about 48 hours has verified pretty closely. Soooo.. maybe I should take solace in the below. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: Model Hugging is a lifelong debilitating disease. 😂 Its is mostly spread by adult men who reside in their mothers basement and troll weather forums daily At least that's what my mamma told me!!!!! I'm waiting for the reply with the photo of a well known towel thrower. 🤪 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 wasn’t going to, but since you asked 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 48 minutes ago, TheComet said: Hi we’re in Rio de Janeiro right now until. I heard MBY will get clobbered 😂. Nothing better than to come home to a snowed in driveway after summer in the southern hemisphere and temps in mid 90’s Rio sounds fun right about now 🎉😏 Look around for Carlos aka @polarvortex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Doorman said: Model Hugging is a lifelong debilitating disease. 😂 Its is mostly spread by adult men who reside in their mothers basement and troll weather forums daily At least that's what my mamma told me!!!!! Edited February 10 by StretchCT 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 (edited) 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Rio sounds fun right about now 🎉😏 Look around for Carlos aka@polarvortex sorry @polarvortex tagged the wrong user. What was Carlos's handle again? Did he delete his profile? Swear he came over for a few months before disappearing. Edited February 10 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, JDClapper said: That’s a great post 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 Looks like the cold front arrived. Got windy, downpoured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 11 Author Admin Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Looks like the cold front arrived. Got windy, downpoured. And I rather enjoyed today, even got in a hike but it was far colder on the island than they forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 Just now, LongIslanGurlllll said: And I rather enjoyed today, even got in a hike but it was far colder on the island than they forecasted Sea breeze? Would have been warmer if the sun were completely out today, but it was rather overcast with parts of blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: It's a wet-un Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Sea breeze? Would have been warmer if the sun were completely out today, but it was rather overcast with parts of blue. Yes, hiked the south shore to the water and was unprepared! We didn’t get sun at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This one ain’t done messing with heads. You have a cold ( ok, cool front😀) pressing in late tomorrow. Then, it is exactly where secondary pops. AND we have a stream up north. Models showing juice , AND lots of wind. Sooo, if we go Del Marvelous with secondary, it’s good. We pull cold air if it juices. If not, we don’t. Oh, i sent RickRd updates from church again. Heathen 😀 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: This one ain’t done messing with heads. You have a cold ( ok, cool front😀) pressing in late tomorrow. Then, it is exactly where secondary pops. AND we have a stream up north. Models showing juice , AND lots of wind. Sooo, if we go Del Marvelous with secondary, it’s good. We pull cold air if it juices. If not, we don’t. Oh, i sent RickRd updates from church again. Heathen 😀 11th commandment - GFS shalt not toy with our emotions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just a little wiggle north with the 21z SREF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Warmer air can hold more water - at least colloquially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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