Admin Sentinel Posted February 10 Admin Share Posted February 10 9 hours ago, Rickrd said: Spire uses a unique technique of measuring the earth's atmosphere with 3x more radio occultation data than any other commercial entity. This gives an advantage in forecast accuracy for remote locations. The Spire model is #1 for wind speed and direction accuracy using data from offshore weather buoys. something like that…. Nerd. 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: JAX Rule? At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. 1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said: thoughts? I believe NYC and LI are in this game, with a thump 52 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Any boss at NWS who takes vacation at this time of year is either A) the meanest SOAB going or B) the shrewdest boss in NOAA C) Government employee who can't be fired and doesn't care about anything or anyone.... Err. Nvm 41 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Please do this will have been the third storm i will have driven in to get to work and im not havin it anymore. Company doesnt reimburse us for hotel stays in situations like this. So this is where you send a written message that you don't feel you can make it safely. They say you have to come in. You do. Anything happens to you and liability wise you go after them 😉 Regarding this storm, confluence presses down, leading to baroclynicity off the coast. Given SSTs I would bet this is a bit further off the coast. Where the band sets up is going to accumulate rather quickly. I would not sleep on this and be prepared for a quick hard thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 (edited) Models at hr 78. Big picture is not a lot of differences. Timing is close, positioning is off NJ or DelMarVa which is pretty close for big picture. Strength is the curious one. 993 to 985 is a decent spread and is what seems to be driving the differences NAM is slowest at 500mb. UKMET and GDPS are the weakest On a close in, detail basis, no consensus yet. Waiting for NAM to speed up. Edited February 10 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Models at hr 78. Big picture is not a lot of differences. Timing is close, positioning is off NJ or DelMarVa which is pretty close for big picture. Strength is the curious one. 993 to 985 is a decent spread and is what seems to be driving the differences NAM is slowest at 500mb. UKMET and GDPS are the weakest On a close in, detail basis, no consensus yet. Waiting for NAM to speed up. NAM seems to continuously be colder/more strung out than the rest... Are both of those things driven by the same factor, or does the NAM just interpret the surface depictions differently based on overall similar setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: RGEM trend. Hahaha bit concerning that the NAM is way south and weak too. But you have the gfs euro sref and gefs eps cmc ens all saying the game is on. So would be a fail of epic proportions if they blow this one with 60ish hours to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ugh these Meso models - still not in range of course, yet yeesch horrible. Pity - after showing some promise in earlier events. I guess maybe those were fewer moving parts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ugh these Meso models - still not in range of course, yet yeesch horrible. Pity - after showing some promise in earlier events. I guess maybe those were fewer moving parts? Hopefully they are lost here but who knows there's 2 very different camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said: Hopefully they are lost here but who knows there's 2 very different camps. Probabilities. Hard to wrap the brain around sometimes. There's a 80% chance it will snow... but also 20% it doesn't. There are several complete duds in the EPS package. Goes back to my low end CTP map rant I guess. lol RGEM gives it some credence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I guess if we thought we'd have more answers than questions with this 12z run, we were sadly mistaken. ICON looks gross. Wamer than 6z. Of course, it's the ICON. Guess we'll just wait for the 2 models we really care about anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So you have Most t north: ICON rain anyone south of NYPA border or so straight east MIDDLE. : GFS EURO sref EPS GEFS CMC ENS South most: Rgem NAM Considering still technically out of range and most consensus is the middle. I like NYC lower hudson valley Nnj. We'll see how it plays out. Totals looks to be lesser tho outside of the gfs euro ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, AceGikmo said: NAM seems to continuously be colder/more strung out than the rest... Are both of those things driven by the same factor, or does the NAM just interpret the surface depictions differently based on overall similar setups? It's a little slower compared to Euro/GFS/CMC. I marked the center of the upper low with the pink L. It's pretty strong, compared to the CMC and seems in line with the Euro/GFS there. It's even heading negative, more neutral here. CMC is out in front of the NAM, negative but weaker. Pink L is where NAM is. Euro is in front of the NAM, maybe a tad stronger. Neutral tilt. GFS is in front, a little stronger. Hard to see the L there but its on the WSW side of the low. The NAM starts off with the other models, but by 48hrs its falling behind. Not sure why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 7 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: So you have Most t north: ICON rain anyone south of NYPA border or so straight east MIDDLE. : GFS EURO sref EPS GEFS CMC ENS South most: Rgem NAM Considering still technically out of range and most consensus is the middle. I like NYC lower hudson valley Nnj. We'll see how it plays out. Totals looks to be lesser tho outside of the gfs euro ops. The Professor leans back in his recliner and takes another draw on his meerschaum pipe, and fondles his snifter of cognac. Thinks "I remember when they used to talk about me in glowing terms". "I used to be somebody", he thinks, as visions of past coups flicker through his memory, like a 12 hours candle in its 11th hours. He takes a sip of Henny and sighs. Edited February 10 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z EPS clusters "cone of uncertainty" .. 60-84 hours and look at that spread. Yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 ICON trend. Consistently on the northern end of the envelope for heaviest axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The Professor leans back in his recliner and takes another draw on his meerschaum pipe, and fondles his snifter of cognac. Thinks "I remember when they used to talk about me in glowing terms". "I used to be somebody", he thinks, as visions of past coups flicker through his memory, like a 12 hours candle in its 11th hours. He takes a sip of Henny and sighs. The "professor" has had dementia for the past 3 years now. Not the teacher he used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: ICON trend. Consistently on the northern end of the envelope for heaviest axis. It's a parody model bro. Says it right next to it on the site. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 In the land of "what if" Horseshoes and hand grenades - the Lakes vort max catches the one in TN. Whoo boy.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 10 Admin Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It's a little slower compared to Euro/GFS/CMC. I marked the center of the upper low with the pink L. It's pretty strong, compared to the CMC and seems in line with the Euro/GFS there. It's even heading negative, more neutral here. CMC is out in front of the NAM, negative but weaker. Pink L is where NAM is. Euro is in front of the NAM, maybe a tad stronger. Neutral tilt. GFS is in front, a little stronger. Hard to see the L there but its on the WSW side of the low. The NAM starts off with the other models, but by 48hrs its falling behind. Not sure why. To me it looks like Convergence is causing the NAM to slow and gunk up. This is likely resolution and being too far out that is causing some feedback issues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 10 Admin Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I still miss cranky 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: In the several case studies of major EC snowstorms I've reviewed, that 850 track is prime for a CTP through NYC snow axis crush. Difference here is that the crush jobs all had blocking downstream (NAO neg.) which we don't have in the least. Only some other mechanical slowing can do that here (such as not yet seen additional phase) Without - we still still that axis. Just not Top 10 storm type numbers. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Honestly after the last two years wouldn’t it just be nice to have a decent snow Not major just 2-4” , 3-6” or 4-8 “. This not directed at any body. Just a general comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just had a couple of those up here....Didn't quench my thirst. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS with minor adjust it seems. Pretty QPF laden through the OH Vly - thermally has gains and losses both ways so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesfan82 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Wtkidz said: Honestly after the last two years wouldn’t it just be nice to have a decent snow Not major just 2-4” , 3-6” or 4-8 “. This not directed at any body. Just a general comment I would love a 4-8 type of wet snow ( no mix ) kids want to build a family of snowmen and last 2 snows were 2 dry . One b4 that ( built one ) melted 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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