NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) thoughts? Edited February 10 by NEPAsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) It does look like this area will be seeing snow from the predicted coastal. From the NWS/B-N Office morning discussion: Spoiler Monday Night through Tuesday... Our next opportunity for widespread impactful weather across southern New England. A near neutrally tilted trough will initially be over the TN Valley Mon evening. The trough digs into Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes by early Tue and becomes slightly negatively tilted. The trough continues to dig as it lifts through southern New England on Tue. Low pressure slides across the TN Valley into the Mid Atlantic Mon Night into early Tue. A secondary low develops off the coast of the Mid Atlantic early on Tue and lifts northeastward nearby southern New England on Tue. The low continues to lift northeastward toward Nova Scotia by late in the day. Models are in much better agreement today than 24 hrs ago and really clustering toward a track around the benchmark. With this in mind probabilities of a significant snowstorm are increasing. There is still enough spread in the track and intensity of the secondary low that a few different scenarios are possible. Really does not appear at this point that there is much interaction with a northern stream shortwave, but the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET are a bit quicker with the wave moving in. This helps kind of double down on the height falls over our areas with the southern stream wave and a more impactful system for our area. The GEM shows a slower shortwave and still some impacts, but a storm further to the southeast of the benchmark. Given the spread am still focusing heavily toward ensemble probabilities. The GEFS/EPS are fairly similar with moderate to high (50-90+ percent) probs of total QPF AOA 0.5 inches from roughly the MA Turnpike southeastward. These probs fall off somewhat quickly as you go northwestward to the low-mod category (10-40 percent). The GEPS is similar to its operational model and more muted with these probs of 10-50 percent across our region. Even have some low probs (10-40 percent) of QPF AOA 1 inch, with the highest values over the south coast. These probs continue to increase from run to run. This is also the case for snowfall totals with mod to high probs (50-80+ percent) of 3+ inches of snow per the EPS/GEFS, but still more muted for the GEPS in the low to mod category for our region. Still highlighting the south coast for the highest risk. As prev shift indicated there is not a whole lot of antecedent cold air available. Can clearly see this via the 2m temp probs less than 32 degrees F per the ensembles. Where our highest QPF potential is also where the probability gradient exists, so ptypes will be an issue. This can be overcome with heavier precip and an intensifying system, but these details need to be honed in on. Still difficult to discern at this point so stay tuned as additional model shifts are anticipated. Given there is still uncertainty on the intensity/track of the low sliding through we are also somewhat uncertain on the exact extent of the strong winds. Overall NAEFS/EPS situational awareness tables are quite meh. Though they do indicate 1.5-2 STD above model climo, this is all for winds at 200 hPa. Right now could perhaps see a 20- 40+ kt northeasterly jet. Would result in gusty winds, but nothing crazy for Feb. This on top of how rapidly our system deepens will also impact the exact coastal flooding risk for eastern MA, which will be discussed further in the coastal flooding section below. And the related snow graphic: Edited February 10 by jbrumberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: thoughts? Feels like he's softening on his stance of NYC/LI/PHI get no snow/accumulations whatsoever. Felt a little weird for him to go so hard on that yesterday but if he owns up to his change, I give him some leeway. Never understood any weather platform announcing definites and details so far out; work PC told me yesterday to expect 2" of snow on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Remarkably, the 9z SREF Plumes are very homogenous - the same 4" (+/- a half inch) is showing at Williamsport, Hbg, York, Phila, even Scranton and NYC - even up to CT, RI and MA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Remarkably, the 9z SREF Plumes are very homogenous - the same 4" (+/- a half inch) is showing at Williamsport, Hbg, York, Phila, even Scranton and NYC - even up to CT, RI and MA I'd imagine the northern zones would see more than that, but the storm is likely still wrapping up at this end hour - AND this run doesn't quite capture any "booming" the coastal may do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 10 Meteorologist Share Posted February 10 In a rare mood on this one, kinda hoping it is a warmer storm. Boss is on vacation we are still short staffed i would rather not deal with this right now. Leave it in northern PA please lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: In a rare mood on this one, kinda hoping it is a warmer storm. Boss is on vacation we are still short staffed i would rather not deal with this right now. Leave it in northern PA please lol Any boss at NWS who takes vacation at this time of year is either A) the meanest SOAB going or B) the shrewdest boss in NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 WE haven't seriously discussed the "pre-event" system that rolls by on Sunday. It seems to serve two purposes One is the help moisten the existing atmosphere prior to the larger slug moving up The second is to help drag in the mid level cold in its wake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 10 Meteorologist Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Any boss at NWS who takes vacation at this time of year is either A) the meanest SOAB going or B) the shrewdest boss in NOAA Lol i wish i was in the NWS, been applying for awhile and it is extremely rigorous. Im still a weather observer at Baltimore airport. One day maybe! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: In a rare mood on this one, kinda hoping it is a warmer storm. Boss is on vacation we are still short staffed i would rather not deal with this right now. Leave it in northern PA please lol gladly take it for you in wayne county,pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 seems like less confluence on this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said: seems like less confluence on this run of the NAM Funny I was going to mention that it seems to be pushing in more cold. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 10 Meteorologist Share Posted February 10 Just now, NEPAsnow said: gladly take it for you in wayne county,pa Please do this will have been the third storm i will have driven in to get to work and im not havin it anymore. Company doesnt reimburse us for hotel stays in situations like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NAM tries its best to push the coastal to SC instead of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I do believe that both H and I are seeing similarly. Yes less confluence - also yes more cold (at least at mid levels and somewhat at surface) as less confluence is also less convergence and that is indicative of increased pressure heights on the NW corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The suspense is killing me 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yeah - looks like shift NAM axis about 50-75mi N this run. It just never can make the earlier coastal idea work out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) Edited February 10 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Underwhelming. And it still has Kuchera as the higher amounts. Very sharp cutoff on the north side. 0-6" in my county, from north to south. Not a fan of that idea (sharp cutoff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NAM is correcting north but still in long range mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 NADS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ends up as a really messy transfer so no benefit of a strengthening low as you head towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 10 Moderators Share Posted February 10 This doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) NAM digs harder in the south but has a stronger confluence setting up to the north. Baby-g digs less but allows the storm to float north a bit more. Edited February 10 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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