Wtkidz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 LWX LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Synoptically, at H5 an ULL will reside across the southern plains amount the southern stream with northern stream energy and confluence over the Great Lakes. At the sfc, a cold front will be moving south from Canada into New England and the northern Mid- Atlantic. How far south this front gets and the 0C isotherm at H85 make it increases uncertainty among ensembles. Currently most guidance has this somewhere in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor north into PA south of I-80. Associated with this is how strong the area of high pressure is to the north of the cold front, which becomes a pseudo stationary front through the day Monday. Come Monday night, the ULL will move slightly north of east across the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning. Guidance does have the ULL become more of an open wave at H5 by Tuesday morning. In terms of sfc low track & transfer from the primary low in the Kentucky/West Virginia area to the coastal low, there remains a lot of spread. The sfc low will be ahead of the UL system. This is important in terms of snow east of the mountains. CAA will rapidly move in ~09Z Tue in the NW and rapidly spread east through the morning. How quickly the cold air is advected in from the NW in relation to the UL forcing is a big uncertainty. In terms of snowfall from this system, the first "guess" is on weather.gov/lwx/winter. This forecast will change given the volatility of the system, low track, and mild-temperatures which will lower SLRs to start. Ensemble/NBM probabilities are highest across the northern tier of the CWA along the Mason-Dixon, with the maxim being in the vicinity of Garrett County, MD. Somebody is likely to get 6"+ of snow with this system wherever the H85 frontogenesis band sets up. The question is it across somewhere in the northern tier of our CWA or is it further north into PA (or both). The highest probabilities remain across PA as of 09Z 02/10. Given no blocking high to the north, current forecast favors mostly rain across the area east of the mountains with a transition to snow on the backside with the UL support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Euro likes a colder solution with kuchera for us north of nyc: 10:1 vs Kuchera Certainly not going to tell anyone what snowmaps work best, but some of these 15-18:1 ratios feel ambitious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Looks right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 Just a reminder. We are in the peak of the moons 18.6 year cycle, so costal flooding is exacerbated. PWM already getting "fair weather flooding" with the recent new moon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) That max/low end from CTP, I'm sorry but those low end ones are always 99% laughable. Literally 0 snow everywhere, really? And it shows something that ridiculous so many times. I just can't. Now watch it be right and make me look like a bulbbering fool. Edited February 10 by JDClapper 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Just a reminder. We are in the peak of the moons 18.6 year cycle, so costal flooding is exacerbated. PWM already getting "fair weather flooding" with the recent new moon. Interesting. These keep popping up. Figured moo had something to do with it, but not specifically why. Thanks for explaining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I supppse if you take SREF verbatim at this lead time, theres only a 20% chance it will snow. Then that low end map doesnt look so crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Early map for those who hate early maps 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: That max/low end from CTP, I'm sorry but those low end ones are always 99% laughable. Literally 0 snow everywhere, really? And it shows something that ridiculous so many times. I just can't. Now watch it be right and make me look like a bulbbering fool. Winter Srorm Jonas or maybe it was Nemo( or Stella, somewhere around winter 2014-2015), but one of them was the same transfer situation. Had us getting 1-2 feet 48hr prior to event and I think we got maybe 5inches. Point is.....you can never fully trust the models with Miller Bs. Edited February 10 by Hail_On_Me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I supppse if you take SREF verbatim at this lead time, theres only a 20% chance it will snow. Then that low end map doesnt look so crazy. Wonder if they are being too aggressive with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Certainly not going to tell anyone what snowmaps work best, but some of these 15-18:1 ratios feel ambitious. Most often, the ratios end up very close to standard 10:1. There are really very few exceptions to that general "rule". I know ratio maps have fooled me plenty 8 minutes ago, JDClapper said: That max/low end from CTP, I'm sorry but those low end ones are always 99% laughable. Literally 0 snow everywhere, really? And it shows something that ridiculous so many times. I just can't. Now watch it be right and make me look like a bulbbering fool. They are "tricky" because by showing little to none and then saying 90% chance of there being more than (none) they are correct. They aren't helpful, in the main, yet they aren't "wrong" per se. 3 minutes ago, Miller A said: Early map for those who hate early maps What's wrong with early naps? I happen to love all naps - early, late, it don't matter to m.... Oh wait, you said MAPS. Never mind. Just now, Hail_On_Me said: Winter Srorm Jonas or maybe it was Nemo, but one of them was the same transfer situation. Had us getting 1-2 feet 48hr prior to event and I think we got maybe 5inches. Point is.....you can never fully trust the models with Miller Bs. Nemo - Jonas was a Miller A monster. (well one could argue it was an A/B Hybrid, I suppose) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3z SREF through 1pm Tuesday. Axis of heaviest along the southern 1/2 of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 hours ago, Rickrd said: Axis of snow line changes with 0z EURO compared to 12z Euro earlier. Definitely more changes will be coming EPS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Word "on the street" is that 06z Euro came a tick NW (than 00z) but had better banding - haven't seen any maps to steal yet. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 6z NAM-bro the best part about the NAM, is these amounts are laid down in 6 hours. This storm cruises 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I asked the dude I ripped from for the 10:1 maps. ha ha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9z SREF, congealing? Move axis of heaviest to northern half of PA/east, but still very giving to the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: 9z SREF, congealing? Move axis of heaviest to northern half of PA/east, but still very giving to the entire state. that axis and that of 6z Euro are quite comparable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Through 7pm Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 10 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: 3z SREF through 1pm Tuesday. Axis of heaviest along the southern 1/2 of PA. I see it.. but I don’t believe it lol.. I don’t know why. Just feels like this should be north of where it is. If I end up with 6”+.. I’ll be thoroughly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Penn State said: I see it.. but I don’t believe it lol.. I don’t know why. Just feels like this should be north of where it is. If I end up with 6”+.. I’ll be thoroughly surprised. Oh I understand! lol Despite nearly every model having a nice 6+ event here, most of me still expects like 2-5" .. maybe it's b/c it's late April weather outside, maybe b/c 6+'s are a like once a year thing here. The doubt it real lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) JAX Rule? At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Edited February 10 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 anyone have 6z euro graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: anyone have 6z euro graphics? Is it a snow map you’re after? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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