JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Something for almost everyone from PA/MD north. Pick your favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 and qpf's for those 3 ..see ya in the AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Steady as she goes with GFS. Now do see utter disappointment on CMC I assume it has adjusted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 12z Spire What is spire ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: What is spire ??? Spire is a St. Louis utility that wants a boatload of my money each month. Lol. I wonder if they are now in the weather model business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 25 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: What is spire ??? Spire uses a unique technique of measuring the earth's atmosphere with 3x more radio occultation data than any other commercial entity. This gives an advantage in forecast accuracy for remote locations. The Spire model is #1 for wind speed and direction accuracy using data from offshore weather buoys. something like that…. Edited February 10 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GEFS. 10:1. Steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 0z Gfs surface temps are warm for southern areas of snow band. Layers above are all below freezing so it will definitely fall as snow. Probably will not stick to paved surfaces initially, unless comes down heavy. Edited February 10 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And the 0z Euro comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) Axis of snow line changes with 0z EURO compared to 12z Euro earlier. Definitely more changes will be coming Edited February 10 by Rickrd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) 4 hours ago, PA road DAWG said: What is spire ??? Spark Pard Into Raging Erec….errr…Excitement Edited February 10 by Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6z NAM-bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 CTP: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 AM Update...Executive summary: Increased QPF and snow amounts with an across-the-board increase in QPF by major models with the most recent runs. Despite the increase in QPF, the main problem we see with a higher SF forecast at this point is the lack of cold/stubborn high pressure area positioned to our N. NAM/GFS/ECMWF tracks/mass fields are similar, but qpf placement and to a lesser extent timing are not quite in sync at this range. Mean SF for KUNV from GEFS 00Z runs is 8 inches. Meanwhile...the median 21Z SREF snowfall total at a point near KCCX, which is even a high-elevation (2400ft) point, is still "just" 3 inches. So, we did not go crazy yet. There`s still 3 days to refine the forecast. Small steps. Me: Um - there's not really 3 days to refine. If you dont' have it honed in by Sunday night (48 hours) then you're not so good at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6z GFS NAM is the only model I've seen that INCREASES snow via Kuchera - GFS Kuch reduces Note the "notch" in E Central PA. Dry slotted as the storm slides underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Last 4 GFS snowfall maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) CTP takes a first stab Edited February 10 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 LMFAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 4 Corners low preparing for ejection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 (edited) Over in the MW Forum they're mentioning the Tstorms out their windows. A quick check of 850 Temp Advection shows that the front moving through has some pretty decent CAA along with it. That front should cross our region later today and early tomorrow. I guess that will help set the stage somewhat, for temps aloft to be supportive? Edited February 10 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 EPS EFI For folks not familiar with these. The black line represent how anomalous the snowfall *could* be based on climo, i.e. some heavy hitting members in there. The shading represents the possibility of getting anomalous snowfall. Generally you want 0.8 or better for high confidence. If it were the light blue, it means nearly all the EPS members are predicting close to or record snowfall for the dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I like to use Dayton OH as an upstream location to look at AFD's for clues as to my weather 24 hrs later. It seems like whatever our old buddy Rob B. sees, I see a day later. I found this snippet particularly helpful... The primary concern with this system will come Monday evening and Monday night. Models have continued to highlight the formation of a deformation band on the northwest side of this surface low, leading to an area of enhanced QPF. While locations along/southeast of I-71 may primarily observe rain during the daytime Monday, there is expected to be a rapid transition to snowfall shortly after sundown with this deformation band. Bufkit soundings highlight this rapid cooling in thermal profiles, with the wet bulb temperature quickly dropping to near or just below the freezing mark with the heavier precip rates. As such, this will likely initiate a heavy band of snowfall and lead to rapid accumulations overnight given the lack of insolation. Models/ensembles have started to trend a bit more southeastward with this deformation band, now hitting more counties along/SE of I-71. Locations NW of I-71 will have an environment that would support snow as the primary p-type for a longer period, but the forcing starts to weaken the further NW you go. Will begin to introduce an HWO mention for accumulating snow potential, but there still remains uncertainty on where exactly the heaviest band of snow will align itself. So - to me, this speaks to what we've been mentioning, for days, about how the storm will have to "manufacture" it's own cold air (pull it down from aloft. It also outlines the issues with accumulations - the more south, the better the forcing-- the more north it's colder but with less forcing. That forcing is critical for those areas (like mine) close to the R/S line. You get that forcing and even Doorman's dour thermal readings become conquerable (albeit mainly on non paved surfaces) and the snow can indeed pile up. Of course, you can't go 1:1 on AFD's upstream because of renewed cyclogenic influence on "our side" of the map. Those mechanisms can and likely will promote their own sets of enhancement. Still though, much can be and should be translated into thinking over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 10 Author Admin Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Over in the MW Forum they're mentioning the Tstorms out their windows. A quick check of 850 Temp Advection shows that the front moving through has some pretty decent CAA along with it. That front should cross our region later today and early tomorrow. I guess that will help set the stage somewhat, for temps aloft to be supportive? GYX mentioned a chance for a rumble or 2 up here with the frontal passage in a previous AFD, but no mention this morning. But we are looking at potential record temps today. 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Npa to hv to sne and nyc look like a good general axis for warning snows as it stands at 60 hours out. Euro is cold and stays below the whole storm for anyone N of NYC. Temps for euro during storm for area around nyc: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 45 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 6z GFS NAM is the only model I've seen that INCREASES snow via Kuchera - GFS Kuch reduces Note the "notch" in E Central PA. Dry slotted as the storm slides underneath. Euro likes a colder solution with kuchera for us north of nyc: 10:1 vs Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Early but you can see the srefs starting to juice up Old vs new 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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