February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm

[marathongoalie]

Will come down to where the transfer happens, and how fast it completes. Obviously the quicker the better for most. 

The followup storms are worthless digging into until this passes.

Clown maps will bump north or south til then.

[chaser915]

Dont yell at me for being dumb; I'm trying to learn from all you guys- typically we expect a little NW swing in these storms as we get close. Right?

[Penn State]

Just now, chaser915 said:

Dont yell at me for being dumb; I'm trying to learn from all you guys- typically we expect a little NW swing in these storms as we get close. Right?

There's always been a saying that "Big Storms Come NW".. but, I think a lot of that's just anecdotal. Late shifts usually do occur, but can be north or south. It's a final fine tuning.. if you will.. probably in the last 48-72 hours. 

[Penn State]

Just now, Penn State said:

There's always been a saying that "Big Storms Come NW".. but, I think a lot of that's just anecdotal. Late shifts usually do occur, but can be north or south. It's a final fine tuning.. if you will.. probably in the last 48-72 hours. 

With this one.. and I could be wrong of course.. I think a lot of these snowfall totals are exaggerated. I would think you have a nice band of 4-8" somewhere in northern PA through central NY and NE. I think your 2-4" band is north of the PA Turnpike.. NW of I-81.. and then you have the potential for a slushy inch or two down to about I-70 / MD border. To the south though.. you run that risk of being all rain. I have historically done poorly when the temp has to come down. If I start in the good, im good. If I start with a deficit, I fail. 

[George Acton]

4 hours ago, Squepp said:

Stop it. Theres 2 more storm in model LR on the horizon. After that I can see the urge for spring

Sorry for the negative banter. It has been a tough pattern, and storms can still happen.

[chaser915]

9 minutes ago, Penn State said:

There's always been a saying that "Big Storms Come NW".. but, I think a lot of that's just anecdotal. Late shifts usually do occur, but can be north or south. It's a final fine tuning.. if you will.. probably in the last 48-72 hours. 

thank you for being nice and explaining your thoughts

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, chaser915 said:

thank you for being nice and explaining your thoughts

Absolutely! That's what we do here. This is supposed to be a forum that's both educational and engaging. Thanks for joining the discussion! 

[Rickrd]

18 minutes ago, Penn State said:

With this one.. and I could be wrong of course.. I think a lot of these snowfall totals are exaggerated. I would think you have a nice band of 4-8" somewhere in northern PA through central NY and NE. I think your 2-4" band is north of the PA Turnpike.. NW of I-81.. and then you have the potential for a slushy inch or two down to about I-70 / MD border. To the south though.. you run that risk of being all rain. I have historically done poorly when the temp has to come down. If I start in the good, im good. If I start with a deficit, I fail. 

Penn State is correct in his summary. This far out the Global models give their general ideas. As we get closer to the event, the short-range models can dial the amounts in, although even they can be over juiced. I like watching the SREF's when they get closer in range.

[Wtkidz]

Incase you need reading material.

  Sterling’s AFD….. someone there loves to write…….

 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be an active start to the extended period with temperatures
set to cool back to average or slightly below average by mid to late
next week.

Synoptically, we continue to monitor a strong area of low pressure
that will eject out of the Desert Southwest/southern Plains early
Monday and into the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Current deterministic/ensemble guidance continues
to show quite the spread in regards to the track of the low pressure
system and timing which will play an important role in overall
precipitation types. The 12z NAM/GFS/GEFS continue to show an area
of low pressure ejecting from the Tennessee River Valley
northeastward toward the central Appalachians before shunting
upper- level energy toward the Delmarva coast Monday night into
Tuesday. This would put a majority of the area in the warm
sector with this low pressure system leading to a predominant
p-type of rain instead of snow. The 12z ECMWF and Canadian are
further south and east with the low pressure system ejecting out
of the Tennessee River Valley and toward the VA/NC coast late
Monday night into Tuesday. This would add slightly colder air
into the mix leading to a higher chance of rain changing to snow
over the mountains west of the Allegheny Front and north of
I-70. One other thing to note is that the 12z ECWMF/Canadian
appear to be weaker compared to the GFS/NAM/GEFS. This could
inhibit the amount of dynamical cooling that takes place as the
upper-level low/trough axis swings overhead.

As of now, the highest confidence for impactful winter weather
remains in climo areas along and west of the Allegheny Front Monday
night into Tuesday. Areas east of the Alleghenies (especially along
and north of I-70 and west of US-15, as well as along the crest of
the Blue Ridge) may see a brief period of rain changing to snow due
to dynamical cooling from the trough axis swinging overhead Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. Confidence in this occurring remains
low due to the preceding warm boundary layer temperatures to start
and the lack of a cold air source with no strong surface high
pressure to the north of the region. As for any concerns with
flooding, they appear to be low, but not zero given saturated soils
and elevated streamflows. We`ll continue to monitor this storm
system over the coming days.

High temperatures for most Monday will push into the mid to upper
40s with increasing easterly flow. Lows Monday night will fall into
the 20s over the mountains with low to mid 30s elsewhere.

Low pressure quickly intensifies and pulls away from the region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will lead to falling
temperatures as gusty northwest flow ushers in cold Canadian air.
Highs will push into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s outside of the
mountains. Conditions will dry out east of the mountains with low-
level moisture allowing upslope snow showers to continue along and
west of the Allegheny Front. These snow showers will diminish
Tuesday night into Wednesday as brief Canadian high pressure settles
in. Another shortwave and clipper-type low pressure system will
quickly follow within northwest flow Thursday into Friday. This
system may produce another shot of accumulating snow over the
mountains with the potential for a rain and snow mix further east.
It will also deliver another shot of cold Canadian air to the
region. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below average by
the middle and latter half of next week.

 

Edited February 9 by Wtkidz

[JDClapper]

Still quite a bit of spread with how much will be measured on the EPS. Several duds, ala the CMC, in there.

[TLChip]

[Penn State]

NAM.. Why are you toying with me? Lol

[Comet1510]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

State College NWS

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Binghamton NWS

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Mt. Holly NWs 

[StretchCT]

2 hours ago, chaser915 said:

Dont yell at me for being dumb; I'm trying to learn from all you guys- typically we expect a little NW swing in these storms as we get close. Right?

There are some reasons why big storms trend nw.  Has to do with pumping the ridge ahead of it, stronger energy coming in behind (or into) it, or both.  Sometimes I also think the steering energy is the last piece sampled and as it corrects, it makes for. a trend north.  Normally I see this with storms coming up the coast though, not through the Apps and transferring.  But big storms are usually sub 990.  This one gets there a little late, and moves fast. 

That being said, there's still room for some modest shifts, but I think time is pretty much run out on us for there not to be a storm. The southern piece has been modeled very consistently (as in it being there, not the details) and the only way I see a non storm is if it gets broken up or shoved off by something from the north.  But even then I think theres a storm over the SE. 

Edited February 9 by StretchCT
grammar

[StretchCT]

Looking faster/more north

[StretchCT]

This looks pretty good so far from PA/NJ north.

Even SNJ gets some

Edited February 9 by StretchCT

[Anthonyweather]

Wow gfs smoke job 

[PA road DAWG]

Gfs

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDCTP:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Increasing potential for plowable to possibly heavy snow Monday
 night into early Tuesday | February 12-13th

The latest 09/12z GEFS/ECMWF mean guidance are reasonably
clustered and show a deepening sfc low tracking ENEWD from the
Central Appalachians (NC/TN/VA/KY/WV borders) to the southern
DelMarVa Monday night and off the southern New England coast by
early Tuesday. This remains generally in line with the earlier
09/00z and 09/06z model guidance, but with a slightly more
amplified and deeper (less progressive) run/run trend.

Given the marginal to potentially "manufactured" cold air due
to dynamic wet-bulb cooling, the GFS/EC operational model runs
seem to be at least somewhat overdone with cranking out swath of
heavy snow. There will also likely be a significant snowfall
rate and elevation dependency that further adds to the ptype
complexity of the impending storm system. While just outside the
gridded snow accumulation period with this cycle, the
probability for a stripe of 3-6" of snow continues to increase
over central PA with higher amounts possible. The north/south
position of the axis remains uncertain, but latest guidance
favors the central portion of the forecast area extending ENE
with wrap-back and banding into the Poconos. To further
contextualize the model spread, the NBM 25th-75th percentile for
State College currently ranges from 0 to 4 inches. Timing has
come into better agreement with the heaviest precip rates
occurring Monday night into early Tuesday. Still plenty of
details issues to be resolved with the most likely travel
impacts and disruptions centered in the Monday night to early
Tuesday timeframe.

The potential phasing of the upper jet and rapid coastal
intensification response could result in strong northwest
winds across the area on the backside of the storm and trigger
lake-enhanced/upslope snow showers across the western
Alleghenies.

The pre-Valentine`s Day storm will trigger a pattern reversal
back to seasonable winter cold for the rest of next week.
Additional chances for snow appear limited outside of some snow
showers downwind of Lake Erie and with a couple of clipper-type
systems.

[LiveWire_13]

FWIW, watched video by Steven D and Bernie earlier today. Both suspect the snow is going to track north, with the latter going so far as to say coast around LI Sound won't see any. Does the Mod Squad over here have any dissenting opinions?

[StretchCT]

I want to see what the piece diving in behind ends up doing.  Imagine it catching it, injecting even more energy and holding it up... sweet dreams.

[Wtkidz]

14 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

FWIW, watched video by Steven D and Bernie earlier today. Both suspect the snow is going to track north, with the latter going so far as to say coast around LI Sound won't see any. Does the Mod Squad over here have any dissenting opinions?

 I guarantee there will be some type of weather… 

[StretchCT]

11 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

FWIW, watched video by Steven D and Bernie earlier today. Both suspect the snow is going to track north, with the latter going so far as to say coast around LI Sound won't see any. Does the Mod Squad over here have any dissenting opinions?

Not seeing a lot of room to go much further north, at least trackwise.  Precipwise I'd have to look at how dry it is and how sharp that cutoff will be.  There could be some room there.

But back to the track. The way things look now there's a decent westerly flow over the northern tier of states courtesy of that 516 UL in Quebec.  This moment is the only I can see that allows for further movement north . There is a little break in the flow but it's pretty late by then.  Now if that low is further north or further west, then sure it can come all the way up to Nova Scotia.  But right now, theres too much pushing down from the north.  

Lots of westerly flow ahead of it, then it gets broken up by the UL, and then that shortwave comes behind and kicks it out.

 

 

[marathongoalie]

23 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

FWIW, watched video by Steven D and Bernie earlier today. Both suspect the snow is going to track north, with the latter going so far as to say coast around LI Sound won't see any. Does the Mod Squad over here have any dissenting opinions?

Good thing both are horrible imo (esp for li)....

Content/cranky is the go to for me on X, uses what's actually happening and goes from there.  Seems anti model, but he's very accurate.  

 

 

[Wtkidz]

The NAM because I can..