JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Long range RGEM looks more like the rest. Not NAMmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: I dislike the "windshield wiper effect" being used as a rationale as to the movement of the storm track in models. Just saying "oh it's just the windshield wiper effect" seems like a cop out, particularly for well established and well seasoned meteorologists. This really is a good example of it though. To be honest, I don't think this is too bad of.a spread. It consistently shows a storm, a snow storm at, that for about 2.5 days. Just the axis of heaviest snow goes between BWI/DCA to ALB. But we are within 5 days now, so lets hone that down to say the MA/CT and NY/PA line to I 78. As MaineJay pointed out it's all the upstream interactions and subtle changes have implications downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ICON is practically all wrapped and do e about 7am Tues back in W/CPA. Quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ike heaviest axis still NY/PA border and poi ts ENE... not like EPS and GEFS who are more south at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z NAM FWIW……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Ike heaviest axis still NY/PA border and poi ts ENE... not like EPS and GEFS who are more south at this time. Ike is like the red haired step child of weather models... 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillyfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yowza 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Sorry for the hard hitting analysis 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Hiramite said: Not quite enough widespread snow for a Guess the Snowfall Contest, but there is going to a Super Bowl Contest. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/514-2024-super-bowl-contest/ Couldn't you just lock the poll after the game is over? 🤪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 For those concerned about cold. This is the 925mb layer (2500feet), which I'll use to demonstrate how it's getting cold, since it isn't affected too much by diurnal temp swings. It's warm through Saturday, even reaching 10c imby. Then you see the blues pushing into the area on Sunday. This is well ahead of the storm. By the end of the run, the storm is entering our area. The blue you see coming down from the north is cold air advection from a cold front. The blue you see starting around the storm dosn in Texas is the cold air that the storm itself generates. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 CMC coming in slower, probably colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Penn State said: That's surprising to me.. love it.. but I can't possibly be in the bullseye. It just feels way too warm here. I agree, I am in the same boat. Feels way too warm but we're still out a few days so enough time for it to cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12Z GFS 2024-02-09 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Wow - CMC = waaaay slower and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 last 4 GFS runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 9 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 9 Just now, clm said: I agree, I am in the same boat. Feels way too warm but we're still out a few days so enough time for it to cool down It's really questionable for me in Franklin County.. That latest GFS run, the northern part of the county could see 6", while the southern part of the county sees 0". This is like PARS's 2016 happening to me.. Karma lol, Karma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Penn State said: It's really questionable for me in Franklin County.. That latest GFS run, the northern part of the county could see 6", while the southern part of the county sees 0". This is like PARS's 2016 happening to me.. Karma lol, Karma. I don't think anything like PARD's 2016 will ever happen to anyone lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 850 mb (5000 feet) shows similar cold air advection combined with dynamic cooling. That leaves the surface temps, but they should be cooler on Sunday and Monday. This is the progression of surface temps for 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yowza You should publish this analysis. Just that alone will net you millions. 🤪 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: 850 mb (5000 feet) shows similar cold air advection combined with dynamic cooling. That leaves the surface temps, but they should be cooler on Sunday and Monday. This is the progression of surface temps for 12z certainly if the right dynamics happen at the right time (mid levels) someone is gonna get a bunchasnow, even down my way, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Penn State said: It's really questionable for me in Franklin County.. That latest GFS run, the northern part of the county could see 6", while the southern part of the county sees 0". This is like PARS's 2016 happening to me.. Karma lol, Karma. For me its either nothing (this can include rain/snow mix with no accumulation) or something. Not a question of how much. 😢 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Better than its 0z run 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3.5 days away from onset and the range imby is 0-12" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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