Moderators Hiramite Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 Not quite enough widespread snow for a Guess the Snowfall Contest, but there is going to a Super Bowl Contest. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/514-2024-super-bowl-contest/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Yeah, last 4 runs of GFS has sped timing up. Verbatim, hammering snow before 7am in CPA, beginning by 7am about neat Stretchland. Edited February 9 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 I keep rubbing my eyes, wondering if I spiked my coffee today, but the W&B GFS gave me a 36pc box of Godiva this morning. I think it loves me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I always assume the start time will speed up an hour or two. Seems to always come in a little faster than its modelled, even on the short rangers Unless dry ahead of it. But agree with just about all systems showing up early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, Anthonyweather said: a pasty during the day special. Heavy wet pushing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NEPAsnow said: Wow.. here i am just hoping for a 2-5" and considering that a win lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Wtkidz said: Which perfectly shows the anti snow dome in Virginia ❄️ That makes most of MD also. Putting a fork in it. Come on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 anyone have 6Z euro info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 I dislike the "windshield wiper effect" being used as a rationale as to the movement of the storm track in models. Just saying "oh it's just the windshield wiper effect" seems like a cop out, particularly for well established and well seasoned meteorologists. This really is a good example of it though. To be honest, I don't think this is too bad of.a spread. It consistently shows a storm, a snow storm at, that for about 2.5 days. Just the axis of heaviest snow goes between BWI/DCA to ALB. But we are within 5 days now, so lets hone that down to say the MA/CT and NY/PA line to I 78. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 This skew is a good example of a heavy snow skew. Column is cold, the DGZ is small, between 15k and 17.7k feet, which isn't ideal. But the max omega occurs in that area, and it's a pretty good amount of omega. Might even have it at -8C at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: anyone have 6Z euro info? EPS Mean snow 10:1. I mostly just pay attention to the max snow axis and how it shifts, not so much the exact amount imby. Same with GEFS which is here for comparison. 6z GEFS says 6Z GFS is wacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: EPS Mean snow 10:1. I mostly just pay attention to the max snow axis and how it shifts, not so much the exact amount imby. Same with GEFS which is here for comparison. 6z GEFS says 6Z GFS is wacked. Oh boy, hit the one in the middle and that would be like an I78 to I80 bullseye back here in PA. Where my boy @WeatherFlash at? Haha Edited February 9 by JDClapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 NBM with the axis of heavier snow on the MACT line back to the NY/PA line then down south a little. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 9 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Hiramite said: Not quite enough widespread snow for a Guess the Snowfall Contest, but there is going to a Super Bowl Contest. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/514-2024-super-bowl-contest/ Thanks for putting this together! Always fun! I have my answers in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Unless dry ahead of it. But agree with just about all systems showing up early. And LR NAM seems to take GFS faster progression and even speed it up a little more. Guessing due to a less deep ULL - not sure of the overall implications though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 9 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 9 41 minutes ago, StretchCT said: EPS Mean snow 10:1. I mostly just pay attention to the max snow axis and how it shifts, not so much the exact amount imby. Same with GEFS which is here for comparison. 6z GEFS says 6Z GFS is wacked. That's surprising to me.. love it.. but I can't possibly be in the bullseye. It just feels way too warm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, George Acton said: That makes most of MD also. Putting a fork in it. Come on spring. Stop it. Theres 2 more storm in model LR on the horizon. After that I can see the urge for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: That's surprising to me.. love it.. but I can't possibly be in the bullseye. It just feels way too warm here. my question all along is how does it make it cold enough to support snow? The only answer we have RN is the dynamic processes during the thump part, Also, for us anyway, time of day has to factor in. If overnight, then maybe decent accum Edited February 9 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 9 Author Admin Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: my question all along is how does it make it cold enough to support snow? The only answer we have RN is the dynamic processes during the thump part, 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Fwiw, long range NAM is depressing. Flatter weak sauce. Edited February 9 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Didnt see your post Ace, sry. Yeah, NAm is quick, has rain starting ia CPA by 7pm Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Ho Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Have always loved that song. Must be a sap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 More my era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Ike is looking slightly different - stronger and reaching for the coast earlier. Meh - Edited February 9 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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