JDClapper Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: between W&B and HH, Ima gonna need that number to Betty Ford clinic 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 NJ and LI gonna like HH GFS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 For those that have trouble finding it. Took me a while, that's the head: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 For fun…. a hair north but do not be surprised on the next as the models turn……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just north of me….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z vrs 18z…. Everything changes but we only try to predict. Nature will do what it wants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 8 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 8 I really want to believe that SCPA is in the game.. but I’d like to see some consistency in all models showing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 MT HOLLY Quote .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather on tap for the start of the new work week as a developing storm system impacts the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic. However, there are numerous inconsistencies among the models that leads to a low confidence forecast. A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night, and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5 trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and possibly even down to the Fall Line. The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This results in minimal snow accumulation. The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the 12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into Delmarva. The NBM snow probabilities have a less than 10 percent chance for 4 inches of snow or more in 24 hours ending at 00Z Wednesday for most areas south of the Fall Line, and up to 25 percent chance for 4 inches of snow or more in the 24 hours ending at 00Z Wednesday for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Due to the low confidence in the forecast, opted to follow the NBM guidance closely. This results in likely PoPs for Monday afternoon and Monday night, and chance PoPs for Tuesday morning. Opted to keep slight chance PoPs continuing into Tuesday afternoon, mainly due to the GFS being slower. High pressure then builds in from the north and west for Wednesday and Thursday with dry weather and near normal temperatures. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 BOX suggests we should know more by the weekend and that "everyone just be patient". Spoiler Late Monday thru Tuesday: As mentioned above, confidence in over this period is fairly low. Individual model runs continue to show variability, but the key elements to the forecast really come down to how well a potent southern stream shortwave phases with energy with a northern stream shortwave. If they phase together we could see a scenario of a deep low developing, though probably tracking over southern New England meaning mostly rain and potential strong winds and even coastal flooding. If they don`t phase, as depicted by the 12z GFS, then we have a weaker system zipping by well to our south with light rain or snow primarily across southern sections. As you can imagine, other variations on the theme could bring a moderate intensity storm with more snow. Based on 00z GFS, Euro and Canadian ensembles, there is actually no clear "correct" solution at this point. Cluster analysis shows that the most favored solution only accounts for 32% of ensemble models (leaning a bit toward the Euro with slightly better phasing of the northern and southern stream). The second most favored cluster has 26% of the models (and is a little more GFS with less phasing). The third cluster has 25% of the models (and not surprisingly leans more Canadian). These percentages are not much better than random chance. Thus the importance at this point to stick to primarily probabilistic forecasts. About the most confident aspect of the forecast is to say that there will be precipitation in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. Stuck with NBM guidance with PoPs pushing 70%. How much precipitation is more in question, but current probabilties for at least 1/4" are running about 60%. You want to know how much snow that would be? Well, probabilities of at least 2" are in the 30-50% range (highest across the northern interior). These are bound to change, but I wouldn`t expect the confidence in forecast specifics to come into clarity until this weekend. One final note about forecast details that need to be worked out -- the winds and potential coastal flooding aspect are also at play. We will be in a period with fairly high astronomical tides, so even a relatively small surge could result in minor coastal flooding. Lots of moving parts, so everyone just be patient as it`s going to take a little time to work things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Well LWX says the following based on the 12Z. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A brief lull in between systems Sunday with widespread precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday next week. The surface cold front that crosses the region Saturday will sink south and east into central/southern VA early Sunday as brief high pressure builds back in. Meanwhile, low pressure will eject out of the southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley along the stalled boundary late Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty remains in regards to the track and timing of low as it works in tandem with a closed low aloft beyond this timeframe. The current 12z GFS/GEFS have an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley and off the Carolina/Virginia coast Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The 12Z Canadian is similar to the 06Z ECMWF with a faster low pressure system ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley into the central Appalachians and off the NJ/DE coast Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. These track uncertainties combined with the intensity of the low and amount of cold air available will play favor to overall precipitation types. The 12z GFS/GEFS appear to be the coldest solutions compared to the GEM/ECWMF/ECNS counterparts. With that said, confidence leans toward a rain event east of the Blue Ridge with snow further west toward the climo favored areas of the Allegheny Front Monday. Even with that said, precipitation may end out as a mix of rain and snow in areas east of the Blue Ridge as the system departs late Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, the wildcards here include the intensity of the low as it transfers to the coast and how much dynamical cooling can take place during that time especially in the wake of the low. Low pressure will continue to pull away from the area late Tuesday into Wednesday leading to drier conditions outside of the mountains. Upslope snow showers and prolonged cloudiness will linger along and west of the Allegheny Front through at least Thursday. Some additional rain and snow shower activity may spill east of the mountains beyond Thursday as another piece of shortwave energy pivots through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 GEFS Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) Speculation or Insinuation ??? take your pick 🎱 happy trackin y'all https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/ Edited February 8 by Doorman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: For fun…. a hair north but do not be surprised on the next as the models turn……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 32 minutes ago, Doorman said: Speculation or Insinuation ??? take your pick 🎱 happy trackin y'all https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/ Another option cogitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I know the models are still bouncing around the place, but considering a combination of models and meteorological guidance suggests that tri-state area may get snow, the NWS Upton forecast seems misleading. P&C: Monday - A 50 percent chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Monday Night - Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday - A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Disco: ...As for precipitation type, whatever gets in here Monday should be rain with the potential of a changeover on the backside of the system Monday night into Tuesday. The lack of a strong surface high to the north and ESE flow at the onset, will likely result in temperatures too warm for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The “free” 90 hr of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro control. Which is basically the euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 EPS trending south Though it looks more like the QPF area is consolidating here, moving north and south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 EPS was colder too at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 trends w/clowns EPS GEFS CMCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) Still a lot of questions. WPC 12z ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solutions continue to offer reasonably good forecast clustering this weekend into Monday. A model composite seems to offer a solid forecast basis along with the National Blend of Models and WPC product continuity. Forecast spread rapidily increases next week as models and ensembles remain highly sensitive to embedded system and potential stream phasing uncertainties in complex and transitional flow. The main issue in this time frame still concerns the potential development and track of a main southern U.S. low to eastern U.S./Western Alantic coastal storm by Tuesday and associated inland and maritime impacts. Machine learning models still offer varied solutions with this main system in this period. WPC products have over the past few cycles trended to show a somewhat less progressive and moderately deeper low track given potential support along with a composite track based on all guidance. This plan maintains good WPC product continuity despite rampant run-run and model-model system variances recently, and ensemble means that seem too progressive given the historical bias of well defined systems working through an at least initially separated southern stream flow. Edited February 9 by TLChip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 9 Moderators Share Posted February 9 NAM bumped south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 9 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, ionizer said: No snow for you!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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