LUCC Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) Still think confluence could play a role in this as originally discussed. CMC/ICON/Euro say what confluence, GFS/Ukie/GEFS say we think there will be some confluence. We all shall see in the next day or two (or three). Edited February 8 by LUCC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: He could be right, and then again he could be wrong.. Why? Cause Mother Nature is unpredictable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) I know things will change,….it just the law of nature.. next run it will a totally different solution or will it ??? Edited February 8 by Wtkidz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: I know things will change,….it just the law of nature.. next run it will a totally different solution or will it ??? Know I'm preaching to the choir, butright now we just have a cone of possibilities including, but not limited to, track, strength, and qpf field. The models will continue to bounce around a bunch as these cones shrink in size....some will even stick to their guns until the end only to be completely wrong. Just follow the general guidance, in particular ensembles, for a "highest probability scenario." For now, we have a chance of a decent snowstorm somewhere...but that's all it is, a chance for some folks somewhere in the region. Better sampling of the vort that drops in to create our cut-off (s/w) lands in BC in the next 12 hours. So maybe some model stabilization coming, but seems like downstream players are going to have just as much effect on outcome as upstream. Edited February 8 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro actually looking very GFS-like so far 🤨 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 42 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: I know things will change,….it just the law of nature.. next run it will a totally different solution or will it ??? 'Law of nature' for the models changes, nature itself is perfect and does exactly what it wants, we just try to guess using our best mathematics and knowledge to come to the same conclusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 Getting into range where 6 hour fixes are satisfied. Northern piece jumps ahead with this one. Trajectory of the second northern piece looks flatter. Leaving it to the southern piece. Ridging up front is similar to 0z, flatter than 6z. Location of UL is similar to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 Little slower than 0z. Still pretty far north/fast compared to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 Which one here is not like the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 She's trying to pivot around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, LUCC said: 'Law of nature' for the models changes, nature itself is perfect and does exactly what it wants, we just try to guess using our best mathematics and knowledge to come to the same conclusion. You are correct it is nature who decides what happens. A model has never made it snow , rain ,or be sunny. Edited February 8 by Wtkidz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 (edited) PA looks good Edit NPA Edited February 8 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 Messy start, nice finish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 It's got some ground speed to it...especially for a cut-off 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Know I'm preaching to the choir, butright now we just have a cone of possibilities including, but not limited to, track, strength, and qpf field. The models will continue to bounce around a bunch as these cones shrink in size....some will even stick to their guns until the end only to be completely wrong. Just follow the general guidance, in particular ensembles, for a "highest probability scenario." For now, we have a chance of a decent snowstorm somewhere...but that's all it is, a chance for some folks somewhere in the region. Better sampling of the vort that drops in to create our cut-off (s/w) lands in BC in the next 12 hours. So maybe some model stabilization coming, but seems like downstream players are going to have just as much effect on outcome as upstream. Lots of mess behind this as well which I'm thinking could lead to some late-game uncertainty because the energy to the west will affect the ULL blocking overtop and won't be sampled well for a while. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 QPF Trend - leaving earlier frames in to remind us that the Euro was almost a slider like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Those of you who hug the Euro will like this run. The answer will probably with the NAM. Just kidding…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Those of you who hug the Euro will like this run. The answer will probably with the NAM. Just kidding…. Going to be interesting when the short range models get into the mix. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Why not....🤷♂️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 8 Moderators Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, LUCC said: Why not....🤷♂️ A look at the 850s then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) WPC disco https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Quote As the system progresses and potentially redevelops as a coastal storm Monday into Tuesday in a period with uncertain stream phasing, heavy rainfall potential should lift northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Increasing progression should limit runoff risks over much of this broad region. There is however an increasing potential for the spread of wrap-back accumulating snows and windy conditions across the marginally cool Appalachians/interior Northeast Monday and Tuesday before the whole system works increasingly offshore as a continued maritime hazard. Behind this system, conditions across much of the CONUS should dry out mid next week besides periodic intrusions from the Pacific to bring some modest precipitation to parts of the Northwest. can you spot the Lizzard looking for a handout?? Edited February 8 by Doorman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, Doorman said: can you spot the Lizzard looking for a handout?? That's a dragon bruh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z EPS snow mean vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: 12z EPS snow mean vs 6z That’s a pretty big shift south with the heavy snow access. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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