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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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Euro at 500mb 0z vs 6z.  6z is a bit ridgier out front, and the northern energy is a touch slower.  It's the second packet of energy that would phase, not the SW over the lakes. Depending how that works out, if it digs behind it combined with the stronger SER would push the storm up a little further north, but since it also phases a bit earlier, would be stronger earlier.  

trend-ecmwf_full-2024020806-f090.500hv.conus.gif.e246a37e96f024e4866fcfb336f7c6bf.gif

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1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Silly me scheduled an 11 a.m. Tee time today.

I'll be up on the box with my mates glaring at me to take my shot and I'll be staring at my phone waiting for frames to load. 

Lotta time with golf, especially if  I'm in the foursome, to check on things. 

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1 minute ago, Penn State said:

Doesn't inspire much confidence does it?

 

Just now, StretchCT said:

Euro at 500mb 0z vs 6z.  6z is a bit ridgier out front, and the northern energy is a touch slower.  It's the second packet of energy that would phase, not the SW over the lakes. Depending how that works out, if it digs behind it combined with the stronger SER would push the storm up a little further north, but since it also phases a bit earlier, would be stronger earlier.  

trend-ecmwf_full-2024020806-f090.500hv.conus.gif.e246a37e96f024e4866fcfb336f7c6bf.gif

Even less now LOL

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If this hits, I have to remove snow from my neighbors who I just dropped off at the airport (bound for Orlando). They get back next Tues after it's supposed to be over. 

My luck I'll have to do mine and theirs and that will shuck.

I'm a total weenie for if the next weekend one works out though. I'll ask them to return the favor. 😉 

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1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Hr78 Ike looking ever so slightly cooler as the system ejects from the southland. 

540 line is definitely south on the ICON. 

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Just now, JDClapper said:

ICON trend

trend-icon-2024020812-f132.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

I would call that fairly consistent.. the axis of heaviest snow changes, but the region is pretty well set. 

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GFS through 45 seems in the exact same spot so far as 06z

Still identical through 54

Consistent through 66

Crazy.. staying strong at 87 as we approach our party date

Edited by Squepp
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12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

ICON trend

trend-icon-2024020812-f132.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

ICON, GDPS, Euro, CFS, tracking the snow further north of me.  

UKIE and GFS only ones to show snow for me.

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4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

The players in this storm, according to the 6z "chong" GFS, are here currently. 

 

Screenshot_20240208_060715_Chrome.thumb.jpg.e454e8aa14635898bc491ea138662c3f.jpg

4 days later, this is where they end up.  Number 3 has really got on its horse the last few GFS runs, almost catching the main trof.  2 and 4 haven't provided the dig until a bit too late in the run.  Expect further "adjustments" as small changes have big effects with stream interactions.   Bringing the north branch at the right time, place,  and depth to provide cold is tricky. 

Screenshot_20240208_060955_Chrome.thumb.jpg.214c7d36974dd1568014314b4e39362f.jpg

#3 might catch #1 this run I'm thinking. Not sure the results, good or bad.

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1 minute ago, TLChip said:

North of I-84? Nah come on down to I-76 please.

It can't.  Fastest would be I-476 but its a toll road and the storm does not have EZ-Pass.  And then you're crossing county lines.  Its just a mess to go through.  🤪

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6 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Let’s see some upper air temps plz. I’m curious but trying to stay productive at work 🕶️

Hrs 120-144.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh120-144.thumb.gif.655ee5b08049543d6c50966a98c32203.gif

 

925s good

image.gif.a111c90d106576966e547c5fc60a9deb.gif

850s ok

floop-gfs-2024020812.850th.us_ne.gif.29e4ac98c33aad979baf767431842a1b.gif

 

Edited by StretchCT
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