Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 A little perplexed at the consistency of the track between models this far out. Ukies a little further s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: A little perplexed at the consistency of the track between models this far out. Ukies a little further s It may consistent but I am willing it will all change. I got 50 cents . Any takers ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: It may consistent but I am willing it will all change. I got 50 cents . Any takers ? Do you have two tens for a five? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, clm said: Do you have two tens for a five? No but I do have 3 sixes for a 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 From a snow map perspective, this is better than prior runs. Canadian ens also a tad better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 17 minutes ago, StretchCT said: From a snow map perspective, this is better than prior runs. Canadian ens also a tad better Canadian model more snow friendly with Maine because they want Maine back. They're hoping that through the weather model, residents will want to secede from the U.S. 🤪 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 28 minutes ago, StretchCT said: From a snow map perspective, this is better than prior runs. Canadian ens also a tad better Euro ens deteriorated a bit on the south side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Good sleeping material from Sterling. joys of living in southern mid Atlantic. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Spotty shower chances and mild temperatures this weekend before more widespread precipitation chances arrive with an area of low pressure early next week. High pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic with a weakened cold front set to cross the region Saturday before stalling to the south across central/southern VA Sunday. The highest opportunity for rain areawide looks to be on Saturday afternoon when the best forcing is overhead. Even with that said, no washouts are expected with fairly light precipitation amounts and overall spotty/scattered coverage. Outside of the rain chances will come the extra clouds and very warm temperatures. Some locations may near record territory Saturday afternoon pending any breaks in the cloud cover. Highs for most will push into the low to mid 60s with 50s over the mountains. Temperatures will cool back into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s under northwesterly flow in the wake of the front Sunday. Cloud cover Sunday will linger especially over the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area with a few breaks in the clouds further north as brief high pressure settle. A much more impactful system looks to arrive on Monday and Tuesday of next week. An area of low pressure will trek from the southern Plains into the Tennessee River Valley and Carolinas during the aforementioned timeframe. 12Z deterministic guidance continues to show subtle differences in regards to the overall timing, track, and precipitation type with this system based upon potential interactions between the northern/southern stream. The 12z GFS/GEM tends to be warmer with low pressure up across central/eastern VA while the 12z ECWMF is a bit colder and further south. With that said, confidence remain low in regards to the scope of wintry precipitation especially in areas east of the Allegheny Front where overrunning could occur. Current thinking is that the Allegheny Front will see wintry impacts with a mainly rain event further east toward the Blue Ridge and Baltimore/Washington DC area. After several dry days, flooding does not appear to be a concern, but given saturated soils and above normal streamflows a few isolated/localized issues cannot be ruled out especially east of the Blue Ridge. The highest probabilities for 1" of rainfall look to sit between 30 to 35 percent especially in areas along the I-95 corridor. Of course, this is subject to change based upon the track and overall intensity of the low Monday into Tuesday AM. 12z guidance continues to illustrate a quick hitting low pressure system that is into the area Monday and out of the region Tuesday. Upslope snow showers will likely linger it`s wake through the middle part of the workweek for areas west of the Allegheny Front. This is due part to increased northwest flow and an additional front that looks to push south from the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will fall back to average to slightly below average during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 41 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Euro ens deteriorated a bit on the south side There is that shift north I am so used to in the past 10 years. We used to regularly get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Still in that generic 25-33% chance to measure something here in NCPA. Hasnt changed much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 7 Author Admin Share Posted February 7 GYX Quote All eyes then focus on the Tuesday forecast with notable shifts to the 12Z operational and ensemble solutions regarding the potential formation of a New England coastal low. Previous runs have kept this system over the Mid Atlantic region and not overly intense. Current guidance suggest more of a well developed surface low further to the north, potentially along the New England coastline with impressive cyclogenesis. Guidance produces significant QPF with the exception of the fast Euro solution. In any case however, there remains significant difference in the ensemble solutions as to the location of potential snowfall. In any event, this will need to be monitored (during a period of high astronomical tides) as model solutions will continue to change over the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Before we get to that point, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures and gradual snowmelt will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 (edited) Geez, just looking at the 500mb GFS v Euro and they are not alike. Edited February 7 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 Oh boy. What happened to the northern system? Southern looks very close to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 7 Author Admin Share Posted February 7 Different shortwave interactions with the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 7 Author Admin Share Posted February 7 Just now, StretchCT said: Oh boy. What happened to the northern system? Southern looks very close to 12z Energy coming through the western ridge is different too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 26 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Geez, just looking at the 500mb GFS v Euro and they are not alike. At the sfc they spit out roughly the same looking storm. Just now, StretchCT said: Oh boy. What happened to the northern system? Southern looks very close to 12z MJ's spaghetti have shown how different southern vs northern has been. Southern was pretty close together, northern been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That trend is really only one direction... chance it starts to correct back east? The piece of energy at the 4 corners has accelerated way ahead to texas. The northern stream of energy has flip flopped back and forth. Southern jet showing great consistency and should bring the moisture either way. The northern jet just can't figure out what it want's to do yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I know this looks weird. Consistency ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Off topic. 14 years ago I had this in front of my house,,,,l 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: I know this looks weird. Consistency ? Looks like a familiar track this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Wtkidz said: Off topic. 14 years ago I had this in front of my house,,,,l Hopefully, I just pulled a reference to 2010 in the latter storm thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 bust out the shot gun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It's not a proper thread without some clown maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 minutes ago, JDClapper said: It's not a proper thread without some clown maps. Damn straight buddy! Throw a dart at this point. Somewhere within 500 miles north to south. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 7 Moderators Share Posted February 7 Thought I knocked the cord out on my way out of work. Seems someone plugged it back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now