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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I miss Elliot Abrams 

Roads already covered - best of luck 

I figured as much. If need be I have places I can stay in York just don't wanna be stuck down here paying for a hotel at 150$ a night.

Luckily I think rush will be virtually nothing.

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6 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

It felt like many mets held on to the northern/warmer track longer even after model consensus over multiple runs shifted elsewhere. My concern from the beginning was that no one down here was taking this threat seriously. This is going to hit right before rush hour and dump snow for 6 hours or so. If the city isn’t prepared it’s going to get bad out there.

Guess the storms move NW thing didn't work out this time.   Perhaps the models thought the "kissing jets" were up to more hanky panky than that,  Valentines day coming up and all, turns out the Southern stream was put in the "friend zone" and it wasn't even a peck on the cheek, just a sheepish wave. 

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Was having trouble sleeping anyhow, got up at about 3:00am, was lurking here(as usual), fell back asleep for about an hour or so. It was already pinging some at 3:00 but now here it's pretty white. No measurements or anything but definitely covered heavily. 

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Screenshot 2024-02-13 051652.png

Areas affected...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York...Long
   Island and southern Connecticut

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 131008Z - 131445Z

   SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may
   become focused across much of the Greater New York City Metropolitan
   area by 8-11 AM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to develop east-northeastward
   into and through much of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New
   England.  This includes moderate to occasionally heavy snow
   developing on the northern periphery of the shield, but the
   changeover to snow and snow rates have been hampered at least some
   by boundary-layer temperatures initially above freezing, and a layer
   between 850-700 mb with above freezing temperatures, as far north as
   the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity.

   Significant surface cyclogenesis does now appear underway
   near/offshore of the Hampton Roads vicinity, with the rapid further
   deepening of the cyclone forecast as it progresses
   east-northeastward into the Atlantic through the day.  This will be
   accompanied by southward advection of colder lower/mid-tropospheric
   air into the the northern Mid Atlantic, and the latest Rapid Refresh
   continues to indicate intensifying deep-layer frontogenesis in a
   zone across the northern New Jersey/Long Island vicinity through mid
   to late morning.  Beneath strengthening divergence between coupled
   jet streaks aloft, models indicate that upward vertical motion will
   become maximized within mid/upper levels, including a layer near and
   just below 500 mb where temperatures are favorably cold to support
   large dendritic ice crystal growth.

   Forecast soundings suggest that saturating and sufficiently cold
   profiles with precipitable water around .70 inches may focus
   intensifying and heaviest snow across much of the Greater New York
   City area through 13-16Z.  It appears that this probably will
   include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally
   heavier.

   ..Kerr.. 02/13/2024
Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Just now, Blizz said:

Unbelievable but I believe we have near 7" of snow here near Hazleton... still coming down. I did not expect this after the trends last night

This is one of the reasons I try to (don"t always succeed)  eschew models within 30 hours and try to focus more on radar and RAP analysis. When I do look at modeling in tight like that, I don't let it skew my previous thoughts. Good thing I don't do this for a living - that's for sure. 

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So.. this is quite a rough estimate using our Google Nest.. but thinking 3-4” down this way. Power just flickered too.. that should make our upcoming FID (Flexible Instruction Day) fun. 

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