Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lowest pressure I found from the buoys was in Norfolk, VA 992mb. Seems about right - DelMarVa sweet spot It's fixin to BOMB any minute now. Edited February 13 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Honestly, I feel like its overperforming right now near Hazleton.... near 4" and coming down hard. I was so worried earlier with the trends south... will see where we end up but wow, cranking right now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Lancaster has officially gone over to snow same with York. Really heavy band setting up over the area shortly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: Lancaster has officially gone over to snow same with York. Really heavy band setting up over the area shortly. Tyler, what product do you use to follow? Aviation Wx? Something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 13 Author Admin Share Posted February 13 Indirectly related. Once the models backed off the snow up here, my temp forecasts definitely crept up. Still snow in my yard, but many places exposed to the sun are giving up the ghost. Hoping to see some nice snow pictures, but without any power outage issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Tyler, what product do you use to follow? Aviation Wx? Something else? Aviation Wx we have it up constantly at work and it auto updates every 5 mins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 409 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... After extensive revisions to the forecast last evening, guidance has finally come to a relative concensus regarding the low pressure crossing the region this morning. As of 4 AM, the rain-line is a bit south of the I-78 corridor, with snow as far south as Reading, Perkasie and Somerville, but sleet just south of there and rain still falling across Philly metro. Expect the line to continue working southward over the next several hours with snow falling across the I-95 corridor by the middle of rush hour. This will unfortunately coincide with the arrival of the heaviest precipitation associated with the comma-head of the low pressure passing to our south. Thus, we could see rapid deterioration of conditions on the Philly metro roadways just as they are filling with traffic, a potentially very bad combination. We urge anyone with travel plans this morning to delay until afternoon if possible, when conditions will improve markedly as the storm moves out. It appears now that the rain-line will eventually sweep southeastward all the way to Cape May County and central Delaware before precip tapers off near or just after noon, but significant accumulations will remain confined to areas north. Inherited a fairly wide coverage of winter storm warnings just north of the metro and a tier of winter weather advisories further south across the metro itself. Think these still look reasonable, though uncertainty remains about just how effective snow accumulations will be this morning in areas where it is currently still rain. Would not be shocked if parts of the advisory area hit warning criteria while others fail to reach advisory, but that`s a tough nut to crack right now and have no confidence in further changes at this time. Further north, the extreme northern areas might see precip taper off a little earlier, so we might struggle to reach warning levels in the far northern Poconos and NW NJ. Overall, nudged totals back slightly across the warning areas to a general 4-8 given a relatively rapid departure of the system near midday and the heaviest precip likely staying a bit further south. Aside from the snow, winds will be gusty right along the immediate coast. Not quite confident we`ll see widespread 40 kt gusts but spotty remains possible so have left wind advisory as inherited. Looks like strongest winds are this morning. Further inland, while winds will be less, the combination of heavy wet snows and gusty winds may result in downed trees, so we`ll need to watch out for that as well this morning. Rainfall totals where it is mainly rain remain in the 1-1.5 inch range, but given its mostly in the sandy coastal plain, we continue to not have significant flood concerns. By mid-afternoon the storm will be long gone as it quickly hauls east off the coast, with skies breaking for some sun and temps likely rebounding back towards 40, so expect some decent melting this afternoon. However, as temps will fall back below freezing tonight, re-freeze will be a concern overnight tonight for anything not treated. Otherwise, just a brisk and chilly night on tap with temps not far from normal for this time of year, mostly in the 20s. There could be a few flurries in the Poconos, but dry otherwise. Edited February 13 by Doorman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Snow is cranking. Looks like rain all around me. 31F. This has to be 2"/hr stuff 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 409 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... After extensive revisions to the forecast last evening, guidance has finally come to a relative concensus regarding the low pressure crossing the region this morning. As of 4 AM, the rain-line is a bit south of the I-78 corridor, with snow as far south as Reading, Perkasie and Somerville, but sleet just south of there and rain still falling across Philly metro. Expect the line to continue working southward over the next several hours with snow falling across the I-95 corridor by the middle of rush hour. This will unfortunately coincide with the arrival of the heaviest precipitation associated with the comma-head of the low pressure passing to our south. Thus, we could see rapid deterioration of conditions on the Philly metro roadways just as they are filling with traffic, a potentially very bad combination. We urge anyone with travel plans this morning to delay until afternoon if possible, when conditions will improve markedly as the storm moves out. It appears now that the rain-line will eventually sweep southeastward all the way to Cape May County and central Delaware before precip tapers off near or just after noon, but significant accumulations will remain confined to areas north. Inherited a fairly wide coverage of winter storm warnings just north of the metro and a tier of winter weather advisories further south across the metro itself. Think these still look reasonable, though uncertainty remains about just how effective snow accumulations will be this morning in areas where it is currently still rain. Would not be shocked if parts of the advisory area hit warning criteria while others fail to reach advisory, but that`s a tough nut to crack right now and have no confidence in further changes at this time. Further north, the extreme northern areas might see precip taper off a little earlier, so we might struggle to reach warning levels in the far northern Poconos and NW NJ. Overall, nudged totals back slightly across the warning areas to a general 4-8 given a relatively rapid departure of the system near midday and the heaviest precip likely staying a bit further south. Aside from the snow, winds will be gusty right along the immediate coast. Not quite confident we`ll see widespread 40 kt gusts but spotty remains possible so have left wind advisory as inherited. Looks like strongest winds are this morning. Further inland, while winds will be less, the combination of heavy wet snows and gusty winds may result in downed trees, so we`ll need to watch out for that as well this morning. Rainfall totals where it is mainly rain remain in the 1-1.5 inch range, but given its mostly in the sandy coastal plain, we continue to not have significant flood concerns. By mid-afternoon the storm will be long gone as it quickly hauls east off the coast, with skies breaking for some sun and temps likely rebounding back towards 40, so expect some decent melting this afternoon. However, as temps will fall back below freezing tonight, re-freeze will be a concern overnight tonight for anything not treated. Otherwise, just a brisk and chilly night on tap with temps not far from normal for this time of year, mostly in the 20s. There could be a few flurries in the Poconos, but dry otherwise. Quote Think these still look reasonable, though uncertainty remains about just how effective snow accumulations will be this morning in areas where it is currently still rain. Would not be shocked if parts of the advisory area hit warning criteria while others fail to reach advisory, but that`s a tough nut to crack right now and have no confidence in further changes at this time. Every single AFD I've read, and every TV broadcast mentions how low confidence is, even now as the event is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 degrees here. 2 degrees colder than forecast. Sleeting mixing in nearby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Snowadelphia said: 35 degrees here. 2 degrees colder than forecast. Sleeting mixing in nearby. You are definitely mixing it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4” here already In lower carbon… 6” in higher carbon…. Already busted northern areas dumping… Lehigh valley at a coating, but didn’t really start yet 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Anthonyweather said: 4” here already In lower carbon… 6” in higher carbon…. Already busted northern areas dumping… Lehigh valley at a coating, but didn’t really start yet THE toughest one to make calls on - that I can remember anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Every single AFD I've read, and every TV broadcast mentions how low confidence is, even now as the event is underway. Yea these event are no joke in how difficult it is to forecast. I do not envy those having to make a forecast at NWS offices the last 24 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Every single AFD I've read, and every TV broadcast mentions how low confidence is, even now as the event is underway. I forecasted better on my ole C-64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Lancaster has officially gone over to snow same with York. Really heavy band setting up over the area shortly. Right on. Coating on the grass already. SE of York. Already starting to cover paved surfaces, too. Edited February 13 by Weathertop Additional info. added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Weathertop said: Right on. Coating on the grass already. SE of York. Already starting to cover paved surfaces, too. Oh boy I leave in an hour and hope to be up that way by 7am. Hope this doesn't get bad quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Anthonyweather said: 4” here already In lower carbon… 6” in higher carbon…. Already busted northern areas dumping… Lehigh valley at a coating, but didn’t really start yet ??? . Here we are approaching 4. Plows went thru half hour ago in New Trip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesfan82 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Turned around and went home , 3.5 pushing 4 here . Really dumping. IMG_9623.mov 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: I forecasted better on my ole C-64 I miss Elliot Abrams Just now, so_whats_happening said: Oh boy I leave in an hour and hope to be up that way by 7am. Hope this doesn't get bad quickly. Roads already covered - best of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 13 Author Admin Share Posted February 13 Just now, Eaglesfan82 said: Turned around and went home , 3.5 pushing 4 here . Really dumping. IMG_9623.mov Mashed potatoes, sticky stuff... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesfan82 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, MaineJay said: Mashed potatoes, sticky stuff... Yes and super slippery underneath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Every single AFD I've read, and every TV broadcast mentions how low confidence is, even now as the event is underway. It felt like many mets held on to the northern/warmer track longer even after model consensus over multiple runs shifted elsewhere. My concern from the beginning was that no one down here was taking this threat seriously. This is going to hit right before rush hour and dump snow for 6 hours or so. If the city isn’t prepared it’s going to get bad out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 A I I weep for the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said: It felt like many mets held on to the northern/warmer track longer even after model consensus over multiple runs shifted elsewhere. My concern from the beginning was that no one down here was taking this threat seriously. This is going to hit right before rush hour and dump snow for 6 hours or so. If the city isn’t prepared it’s going to get bad out there. This 100%, people think this could be a non-event in the area. With heavy snowfall rates right before and during rush hour are going to make commutes miserable. Edited February 13 by TLChip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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