Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) OBS Princeton Junction, NJ. 43-deg and raining. I went out and got a gallon of gas for the snowblower, and pulled it out from the back of the garage where it has been buried for several years. Blame me if you don’t like the weather tomorrow. Edited February 13 by Burr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 13 Author Admin Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Sorry man, bad simile. There needs to be fish at the end of the line 😀 Lol, I'm also not wired like most people. I'm probably an odder duck than most of you all realize. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Burr said: went out and got a gallon of gas for the snowblower, and pulled it out from the back of the garage where it has been buried for several years. I offset you... left it in the shed with no gas. Will gladly take one for the team 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adambrau Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 After 2 years of basically no snow in NYC, I stopped tracking storms. I began to believe that global warming had killed the snow storms we used to 'enjoy'. Much to my surprise I got an email this afternoon from operations at JFK warning several flights arriving tonight and tomorrow are canceled. And I have the day off to enjoy it. Does life get any better..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 @Lazman Looks as though the Euro had a fairly similar take as the GFS did with the northern reach of Vorticity. You can see just how much more consolidated it ended up being in the last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 RGEM… also increases totals to eastern PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerseyflake Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol, I'm also not wired like most people. I'm probably an odder duck than most of you all realize. Quack quack... 😉 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, BossaNova said: I liked the earlier post about sending out the hurricane hunters which makes me wonder. Is this system more anomalous than what we usually see? We always see changes but this has to be in the 90th percentile for all the models and forecasters to be so off so near to the event. Why has this one been so difficult? I still think its about trying to nail down where a swath of 6+ snow will be that is forecast to be only 20-90miles wide. That swath in NJ is 90 miles, in CT and PA it's 20-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, StretchCT said: You're still in it though. Places like Enfield, Putnam, Salisbury its hard to find more than .3 of qpf. I averaged all these models for the output for Waterbury and it's 6.9" 10:1, which probably isn't far off. Still not bad. Icon was still 13, UKMET was 0.4 How far north of Bridgeport are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Hurricane Tracker was activated earlier this evening. How long is it to get that data into the short term models? https://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF309&product_page=sonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 I forget who was asking about the HRRR long range. And It's not fair to throw it under the bus cause most of the other models had this too. But under the bus it goes. First three are its longest range. Last two are the last two runs. Either it's bad in the long run or bad in the near term. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Lazman said: Hurricane Tracker was activated earlier this evening. How long is it to get that data into the short term models? https://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF309&product_page=sonde 0z HRRR had 3, RAP 8, NAM 5 in regards to dropsondes data 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, LongIslanGurlllll said: How far north of Bridgeport are you? 15-20 miles. I'm up by I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 (edited) 11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: @Lazman Looks as though the Euro had a fairly similar take as the GFS did with the northern reach of Vorticity. You can see just how much more consolidated it ended up being in the last few runs. Earlier today I was looking at how well the upper low closed off and how far north it did. That's no longer happening to the same degree. Weaker. This was a 528 low over ACK. now a 534 low south of LI, which given the position and strength should still produce good snow for SNE. Edited February 13 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I forget who was asking about the HRRR long range. And It's not fair to throw it under the bus cause most of the other models had this too. But under the bus it goes. First three are its longest range. Last two are the last two runs. Either it's bad in the long run or bad in the near term. Euro showed the weaker southern solution first, and I’m pretty sure it was laughed at and dismissed. “Why are we looking at global when it’s time to look at the short term models”, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Earlier today I was looking at how well the upper low closed off and how far north it did. That's no longer happening to the same degree. Weaker. Yea it only looks to try and close off again off shore which seems reasonable given the SLP is intensifying rapidly. I think it was a bit of an issue to see the vorticity pocket that far north given it usually resides in the base which was over northern VA/MD region even in earlier runs. Im not sure why it was trying to close it off so early like that, but unfortunately I was not following this that much until I was talking with my colleague on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 (edited) Rain around Middletown NJ - not a lot of virga? Makes me wonder if this is where the action will be. Edited February 13 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: That's the frustrating part, thinking of all the time, just to have the rug pulled out. Let's be honest, chasing is more fun when you get some pay off. Times like these are like, what's the point. Just being honest, thinking out loud. We on Long Island know your pain all too well and can sympathize with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Sometimes you go fishing and catch a lunker, sometimes you don't catch anything, but still have a good time. I heard this a long time ago and continue to repeat it. A bad day at fishing is better than a good day at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Rain around Middletown NJ - not a lot of virga? That was definitely reaching the ground here in Princeton Junction (near Plainsboro on that map) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Sometimes that depends on what the guy down the shore, or in the kayak 20 yards away gets. But yeah, I enjoy learning about these systems, usually regardless of what I get. Until it's sunset and still nothing to bring home. Yep. I've been disappointed many times over the years by that blasted rain/snow line, but its cool tracking these storms and learning new stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I averaged all these models for the output for Waterbury and it's 6.9" 10:1, which probably isn't far off. Still not bad. Icon was still 13, UKMET was 0.4 Is there a part of the image missing? All I see are labels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Probably trying to be too cute.. but following how the radar is "pointing" .. heaviest qpf follows this general path? Looks like ICON haha.. yikes. Maybe I shouldn't post this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 You can kinda already see where the track looks to be. The isobars bending near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. At 925mb you already see it trying to reach in this location too with frontogenesis setting up just inland of Delaware shore and along the Jersey coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol, I'm also not wired like most people. I'm probably an odder duck than most of you all realize. I know the feeling 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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