JDClapper Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3kNAM snowfall in 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 What perplexes me too is that just about every school in CT is closed tomorrow. Even Enfield, and Salisbury/Lakeville up at the MA line. Why not wait like you normally do and call at 5 or 6am? I mean I appreciate not getting that call tomorrow morning, but I'm not really getting the advantage of closing schools when there may be an inch of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslanGurlllll Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, StretchCT said: What perplexes me too is that just about every school in CT is closed tomorrow. Even Enfield, and Salisbury/Lakeville up at the MA line. Why not wait like you normally do and call at 5 or 6am? I mean I appreciate not getting that call tomorrow morning, but I'm not really getting the advantage of closing schools when there may be an inch of snow. I was very surprised to get the calls from my job and the kids school as early as I did but then heard the city made the call even earlier, idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: What perplexes me too is that just about every school in CT is closed tomorrow. Even Enfield, and Salisbury/Lakeville up at the MA line. Why not wait like you normally do and call at 5 or 6am? I mean I appreciate not getting that call tomorrow morning, but I'm not really getting the advantage of closing schools when there may be an inch of snow. No. Cause that made sense and worked back in the day. It’s like everything else now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Sometimes that depends on what the guy down the shore, or in the kayak 20 yards away gets. But yeah, I enjoy learning about these systems, usually regardless of what I get. Until it's sunset and still nothing to bring home. I liked the earlier post about sending out the hurricane hunters which makes me wonder. Is this system more anomalous than what we usually see? We always see changes but this has to be in the 90th percentile for all the models and forecasters to be so off so near to the event. Why has this one been so difficult? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Temp/Dew points slowly dropping around here. Was 45/43 when I got in at 7pm now at 43/42 with fog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, Burr said: 3kNAM puts the transfer at OBX And still the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BossaNova said: I liked the earlier post about sending out the hurricane hunters which makes me wonder. Is this system more anomalous than what we usually see? We always see changes but this has to be in the 90th percentile for all the models and forecasters to be so off so near to the event. Why has this one been so difficult? One thing that could have thrown this all off is how the models have been handling the shortwave. Look at the placement of vorticity while there was still a southern piece in earlier model runs it was showing another portion much further north. That will cause the models to see a low much further north and thus a much further north precip shield. Notice how the vorticity is now more consolidated and further south in the newer runs. I haven't checked the other models yet but would presume they show similar. Closed lows are rather difficult for models to handle whether over water or land. Edited February 13 by so_whats_happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 RRFD coming in HOT. And still snowing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Just now, Anthonyweather said: RRFD coming in HOT. And still snowing Wow. They do struggle with the idea of rain to snow with such an expansive sleet region. I wouldn't be surprised if there are isolated areas of sleet as it transitions but it does not seem like one of those storms more of a rain or snow situation. That area of yellow may be some really globby snowflakes, like half dollar size stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, LongIslanGurlllll said: I was very surprised to get the calls from my job and the kids school as early as I did but then heard the city made the call even earlier, idk You're still in it though. Places like Enfield, Putnam, Salisbury its hard to find more than .3 of qpf. I averaged all these models for the output for Waterbury and it's 6.9" 10:1, which probably isn't far off. Still not bad. Icon was still 13, UKMET was 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Thanks for posting these JD, very helpful. I don't like the results of what's happening for some with reduced snow totals expected, but I love this "in game" analysis of what's happening with various pieces. It's like a football coach breaking down a video of a play that just happened in the game. Very cool 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Rickrd said: No. Cause that made sense and worked back in the day. It’s like everything else now. Back in the day... we got that phone call a few weeks ago. Delay and cancelation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I'm down to 38, was forecasted to be 42. Not sure how long it will rain but I think once rates pick up temps will plummet. Southern morris County here. Think I can do really well. Wouldn't be surprised getting 10+ out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still some convection firing up in Kentucky and WVa. Is that what's necessary to cool the column, and will it continue to interpolate on its current path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: One thing that could have thrown this all off is how the models have been handling the shortwave. Look at the placement of vorticity while there was still a southern piece in earlier model runs it was showing another portion much further north. That will cause the models to see a low much further north and thus a much further north precip shield. Notice how the vorticity is now more consolidated and further south in the newer runs. I haven't checked the other models yet but would presume they show similar. Closed lows are rather difficult for models to handle whether over water or land. Didn't Bernie Rayno toss the Euro because of that weird little piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Sometimes you go fishing and catch a lunker, sometimes you don't catch anything, but still have a good time. Sorry man, bad simile. There needs to be fish at the end of the line 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Just now, Lazman said: Didn't Bernie Rayno toss the Euro because of that weird little piece? Maybe?? I don't really follow folks on twitter unless it gets posted here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Crazy train! Perfect term. This is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 13 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 13 We’re down to 41° here.. slow and steady drop, but not enough to make me feel great about the transition. T-minus 4 hours.. don’t want to waste that heavy precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 13 Meteorologist Share Posted February 13 Frontogenesis already setting up across the PA/MD border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 38 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Crazy train! Going off the rails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 13 Moderators Share Posted February 13 Would being 3 degrees colder than the NAM3km at 10pm be a good thing or bad? Here's how the temp was modeled v actual. Keep in mind the HRRR and RAP run every hour. NAM3k +3 HRRR 0 RAP +1 FV3 +2 RDPS 0 RFFS 0 ICON +3 Euro +2 GFS +2 Normally I'd be happy to be colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Point Forecast: Mount Holly NJ 39.98N 74.8W (Elev. 33 ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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