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February 12-13, 2024 | Winter Storm


MaineJay

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Hi all!  LONG time lurker, since back in the Accu days.  So glad to see so many familiar, knowledgable posters here!  I missed the banter.  I was surprised to see Sterling issued a watch for my area (Northwest Harford Co. MD) with accumulations around 5".  Up until this morning I was only expecting <1".  Good luck to all!  Back to lurking...

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13 minutes ago, MDWxWatcher said:

Hi all!  LONG time lurker, since back in the Accu days.  So glad to see so many familiar, knowledgable posters here!  I missed the banter.  I was surprised to see Sterling issued a watch for my area (Northwest Harford Co. MD) with accumulations around 5".  Up until this morning I was only expecting <1".  Good luck to all!  Back to lurking...

At the rate we are going with model adjustments the warning will come out at 6-12, or models will stop correcting and we will go back to the 1" area IMO

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11 minutes ago, Squepp said:

NWS just issued a WS watch for northern and parts of MD... BOUT DAMN TIME! LOL

CTP very slow at including Adams, York, and Lancaster county.  Now that N MD has issues watches the counties to the north and south of the 3 I mentioned all have watches and warnings.    I'm 18 miles NE of Lancaster PA (Lancaster County) and 10 miles SW of Reading PA (Berks County).  Berks county has ad a WSW since a little after 4 AM this morning. 

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4 minutes ago, Weathertop said:

Gonna be a weird storm apparently with the lower Susquehanna Valley in the void.

NWSMiss.jpg

I just mentioned that.  Northern MD just went to watches and Berks county just to NE of Lancaster county has had a WSW since 4 am this morning.

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23 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I was actually asking Burn-E if he would comment - not directed at you

That's twice I've done that now. Dag nabit

Ok, i will take over. He is a tool. Has been for most of the recent decade. Was good long ago, then like many sadly, social media changed him.

it is one thing to be wrong… again. Don’t compound it by mot admitting it. We are at 12 hour mark now.

Enough on him 😀
 

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Just got put under a winter storm watch for up to 5".  I haven't even been following the models because I thought this was a miss.  I still fully expect to wake up to a cold rain tomorrow.

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I think the NAM is handling temperature profile and precip type the best down this way. This is more just based on historical observations than anything else. Usually when we are that close to the r/s line it tends to be more rain than snow. Curious to see what the GFS and Euro throw out during the 12z.

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Just now, Burr said:

Apologies if this has been posted already.  This morning’s Mt Holly snow map from this morning.

 

IMG_2495.jpeg

Yeah, waiting to see if an update comes for the southern shift temporarily or not

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Just now, ionizer said:

Yeah, waiting to see if an update comes for the southern shift temporarily or not

Quite a range in the 10% probability charts

 

IMG_2497.jpeg

IMG_2496.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

I think the NAM is handling temperature profile and precip type the best down this way. This is more just based on historical observations than anything else. Usually when we are that close to the r/s line it tends to be more rain than snow. Curious to see what the GFS and Euro throw out during the 12z.

Maybe initially, but man the more southerly track screams you guys get dumped on pretty hard with at least the back half. This puppy gets down to around 975.

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1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said:

Is it me or is the GFS farther north so far this run?

Looks about the same to me. More QPF though and also slightly colder for our southern peeps.

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