Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: What’s the width of the 6”+ area? 100 miles at best? Nearly the tip of NJ to nearly Ocean county can’t be that far. If you rotate CT it’s longer than the width of the 6” area. Or LI for that matter. A 20 mile shift then is huge. And it’s not like the models are all the same or run to run consistent. Tough job being a met. I think of it as a typical coastal - sharp NW cutoff. The skinny thing is simply b/c the temps aren't good for snow in the S portion. IOW - if this was typical winter there's be a lot more 6" southward I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) JAX Rule initiated 😉 Edited February 12 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Was just upgraded to a WSW here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Okay, I'm going to be "that guy", because I can be a pedantic bastard about these things. 1. I don't think this is a "transfer " of energy from one low to another. Everything I've seen shows an intact low pressure moving from the deep south to off the coast. 2. IMHO the confluence isn't what shifted the track south per se, the baroclinic zone was always SE of the models, they just couldn't recognize it because the intense convection fooled them. Generally, that convection would pump the ridge, but I think that "Saskatchewan sceamer" exerted a significant amount of pressure and pinned the baroclinic zone SE. If you want to call that confluence, that's fine as that shortwave did result in confluence later in the run, but I just think there was a different mechanism at play. Carry on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I see that IKE is now within the fold a - 6z steps back N a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Gonna to reiterate, 6" of heavy, sticky snow will bring down branches and powerlines, so be prepared. Boston needs to watch for coastal flooding, forward speed will mitigate it some, but the 1pm high tide Tuesday will cause some issues, looking at you Scituate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Okay, I'm going to be "that guy", because I can be a pedantic bastard about these things. 1. I don't think this is a "transfer " of energy from one low to another. Everything I've seen shows an intact low pressure moving from the deep south to off the coast. 2. IMHO the confluence isn't what shifted the track south per se, the baroclinic zone was always SE of the models, they just couldn't recognize it because the intense convection fooled them. Generally, that convection would pump the ridge, but I think that "Saskatchewan sceamer" exerted a significant amount of pressure and pinned the baroclinic zone SE. If you want to call that confluence, that's fine as that shortwave did result in confluence later in the run, but I just think there was a different mechanism at play. Carry on. Pedantic Bastards - another great band name. 1. May be a distinction without a difference. However, the modeling sure shows an inland low coming up to SW PA vicinity and then slipping out underneath. 2. Something changed the scene yesterday - and I suspected your Captain Marvel like "screamer" was that late game thing seen by the models. Parallax view or not - when it came on the stage, the tune changed dramatically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Note how the starting position of darkest blues has changed. When looking for MSLP, I like to use this view instead of the precipitation or even H5 +SLP, as the little red "L" means less than the actual pressure field. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MaineJay said: Note how the starting position of darkest blues has changed. When looking for MSLP, I like to use this view instead of the precipitation or even H5 +SLP, as the little red "L" means less than the actual pressure field. The looks "down south" have had my full attention the past 24 hours. Consistently moving more and more south and allowing the N cold edge to creep further and further through PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WTA???? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS says - let's make Philly happy too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 I'd be watching the radar trends. Folks on the NW side want to see that swirl near the ArkLaTex region to start siphoning of moisture from the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Newly arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Newly arrived My mom is just north of Boston and loves snow, she keeps telling me she only getting rain. And I'm like (in my best Bawston accent), "Ma, the models ah all ovah the place, ya getting some snow." 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) AFDCTP Wet-bulbing/dynamic cooling and the NErly wind typical with a Miller Type B Nor- Easter will cool the column to a solid snow profile for most of the area through the night. The SE will be the last to turn. However, there is still some doubt/uncertainty as to the p-type for the far SE (Adams, York, Lancaster) as the heaviest slug of precip arrives in the early morning. If it falls hard enough, it could be all snow as it won`t have time to warm up. However, we could see another waggle back north, and this would keep the temps just mild enough for a mix or just plain rain. SLRs continue to look very low (sloppy, wet snow) for all of the area. Extreme snowfall rates are possible. HREF progs support high (90 pct chc) of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates over the central zones, and even as far S as the Turnpike. That would make a big mess for Harrisburg right when everyone is traveling. The uncertainty of the band placement has kept us from converting the Harrisburg metro into a warning at this point. We`ll ride the watch. Many models now keep the entire nrn tier (and almost certainly the far NW) dry. However, we`ll leave accums there for the time being, bringing them down, but holding the warning for Potter/Tioga. This warning may get dropped by later shifts, but the novelty/newness of the change begs for small steps to the change in forecasts. The biggest changes to warning/watch flags are the addition of a watch area over the south-central mountains, and an expansion of the warning area to cover a great portion of the CWA. SF rates could cause a significant impact to travel Tuesday AM, pretty much right when everyone is trying to get out the door to work, school, Dr appointments and other activities. Again, as with the changes across the nrn tier, the shift to the south is so new that a watch is a good first step. Edited February 12 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Wet-bulbing/dynamic cooling and the NErly wind typical with a Miller Type B Nor- Easter will cool the column to a solid snow profile for most of the area through the night. The SE will be the last to turn. However, there is still some doubt/uncertainty as to the p-type for the far SE (Adams, York, Lancaster) as the heaviest slug of precip arrives in the early morning. If it falls hard enough, it could be all snow as it won`t have time to warm up. However, we could see another waggle back north, and this would keep the temps just mild enough for a mix or just plain rain. SLRs continue to look very low (sloppy, wet snow) for all of the area. Extreme snowfall rates are possible. HREF progs support high (90 pct chc) of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates over the central zones, and even as far S as the Turnpike. That would make a big mess for Harrisburg right when everyone is traveling. The uncertainty of the band placement has kept us from converting the Harrisburg metro into a warning at this point. We`ll ride the watch. Okay, I stand corrected. Just looks like a strange B to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Okay, I stand corrected. Just looks like a strange B to me. Didn't mean to make it seem as harsh as it does, I'm gonna tone it down a notch. I did get your point though, we who like to look aloft cannot really disagree on there being what appears to be a strong yet diffuse vort max that ejects on its own, ahead of the closed inland low - and it's there the entire time, not exactly "spawned" by inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wtf lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Didn't mean to make it seem as harsh as it does, I'm gonna tone it down a notch. I did get your point though, we who like to look aloft cannot really disagree on there being what appears to be a strong yet diffuse vort max that ejects on its own, ahead of the closed inland low - and it's there the entire time, not exactly "spawned" by inland. Lol, not harsh at all! Trust me, I take NOTHING personally. Much rather have someone point out I have boogers on my face, than let me walk around like that. A good discussion has some disagreements, I want it no other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Lol, not harsh at all! Trust me, I take NOTHING personally. Much rather have someone point out I have boogers on my face, than let me walk around like that. A good discussion has some disagreements, I want it no other way. You mean if I shout louder, I don't "WIN"? 😉 I only wanted to enlarge the font a little and bold it. In fact, I first read it as "Miller B Type" instead of Miller Type B, so I thought that was kind of a nod to your statement. Edited February 12 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I wake up to the euro going completely off the grid south. wtf is this nonsense lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Any questions? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 New RAP fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: I wake up to the euro going completely off the grid south. wtf is this nonsense lol Maybe you were right this is another Jonas for you…. 😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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