Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Amazing. That’s all I have to say. night folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Rickrd said: lol. 0z Euro. unbelievable. going to be done pissed off people and very happy people! LMAO! All I know.. there’s going to be egg on the faces of local weather. ABC 27 has me in “mostly rain” and lead Mets have pretty much mocked this threat since the beginning. Might be time for them to adjust.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Penn State said: All I know.. there’s going to be egg on the faces of local weather. ABC 27 has me in “mostly rain” and lead Mets have pretty much mocked this threat since the beginning. Might be time for them to adjust.. ya. They will spin it. Blame it on climate change and models are having a tough time to adjust for it. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 12 Just now, Rickrd said: ya. They will spin it. Blame it on climate change and models are having a tough time to adjust for it. lol. My argument.. Just don’t be so smug about it. They acted like know-it-alls.. I had folks ask me about this last week and I straight up said.. this one is wide open. Usually I feel like I have a read, but not here. I leaned towards experience, which told me warmer, but sometimes you just have to be patient and let things play out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Do they just read numbers off a computer now? Isn’t there guys who look at patterns, maps, history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: My argument.. Just don’t be so smug about it. They acted like know-it-alls.. I had folks ask me about this last week and I straight up said.. this one is wide open. Usually I feel like I have a read, but not here. I leaned towards experience, which told me warmer, but sometimes you just have to be patient and let things play out. You know.. and thinking about this, my experience is that starting warm and getting cool is tough. But.. it’s tough when that cold has to come over the ridges from the west. It seeps down from the north through the valleys much easier and this is a rapidly intensifying low pressure that hastens the process. Those 850s are going to crash. We’ll see what happens, but I’m feeling more confident each cycle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 12 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Do they just read numbers off a computer now? Isn’t there guys who look at patterns, maps, history? I hope so.. maybe their app told them this lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Penn State said: You know.. and thinking about this, my experience is that starting warm and getting cool is tough. But.. it’s tough when that cold has to come over the ridges from the west. It seeps down from the north through the valleys much easier and this is a rapidly intensifying low pressure that hastens the process. Those 850s are going to crash. We’ll see what happens, but I’m feeling more confident each cycle here. Agree. But isn’t that or shouldn’t that be factored in to models, or is that yo fine and it takes a person to interpret it? I just don’t know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Tomorrow another day. 0z tomorrow night and we’ll have a clue. Maybe. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Oh. Just for the records. Holly’s 12:54 am 2024/02/12 update. 😬 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Rickrd said: lol. 0z Euro. unbelievable. going to be some pissed off people and very happy people! LMAO! Lock it in! 💩 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Penn State said: All I know.. there’s going to be egg on the faces of local weather. ABC 27 has me in “mostly rain” and lead Mets have pretty much mocked this threat since the beginning. Might be time for them to adjust.. If the Euro ends up even close to being right, what a complete model miss... unbelievably bad... we have winter storm warnings in locations where the Euro has 0 snowfall at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z HRRR fwiw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 06z 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 06z 12km NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There are some counties in PA/NY with winter storm warnings that are trending towards possibly getting nothing.... crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Complete and utter insanity. I might as well still be dreaming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I guess CTP bit on the S move - at least in part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A system will bring heavy snowfall to portions of central Pennsylvania Monday night into early Tuesday, with the most likely axis of heaviest snow across the north-central part of the state. - Considerable uncertainty remains with regards to transition timing from rain/snow across southern PA and heaviest snowfall potential across western Pennsylvania. Snipped from spoiler: still can`t rule out significant snow as far south as the I-81 corridor based on the latest southern shift in the models. Spoiler Model consensus tracks a deepening surface across Southern Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula Monday night, placing the southern half of Pennsylvania in the bullseye for the heaviest precipitation associated with strong warm advection and upper level diffluence north of the low track. A dual jet streak structure favors a region of enhanced fgen forcing in this region north of the low track. Model cross section analyses are also indicating a good instability signature between 06Z-15Z Tuesday, with a layer of negative EPV located in the layer just above the frontogenesis. This scenario supports the potential of an intense band of snow with 1-2 inch/hour rates along the northern periphery of the precip shield late Monday night into early Tuesday. As for ptype, model consensus currently points to an initial period or rain across much of the region, followed by a north to south changeover to snow late Monday night in association with dynamic/evaporative cooling initially, then cold advection on the northwest periphery of the exiting low. Although this scenario definitely supports the possibility for a period of heavy snow across a large portion of Central PA, there remains some model spread in the exact low track, which could alter exactly where the heaviest precipitation falls. The 18Z EPS for instance now tracks the surface low a bit further south, which could result in the heaviest precipitation falling over extreme Southern PA and shift the axis of heaviest snow from just north of I-80 to just south of it. Marginal surface temperatures and uncertainty where the potential CSI banding occurs argues for riding the current Winter Storm Watch over much of the region. S Likewise, current model spread and a tight precipitation gradient on the northern periphery of the storm could result in the NW Mtns escaping with only minor snow accumulation. Latest guidance indicates the back edge of the snow/rain will likely exit the southeast part of the forecast area around midday Tuesday. Deep cyclonic flow in the wake of Tuesday`s storm should result in blustery conditions with lake-enhanced, upslope snow showers across the western Alleghenies Tuesday PM into Wed AM. Upper level ridging is progged to build in Wed PM into Thu AM, supplying fair and seasonable conditions. The bulk of guidance continues to track a clipper north of PA late Thursday, which could be accompanied by a period of light snow north and rain or snow south Thursday night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RDPS splitting the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 Gorgeous baroclinic leaf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 12 Moderators Share Posted February 12 What’s the width of the 6”+ area? 100 miles at best? Nearly the tip of NJ to nearly Ocean county can’t be that far. If you rotate CT it’s longer than the width of the 6” area. Or LI for that matter. A 20 mile shift then is huge. And it’s not like the models are all the same or run to run consistent. Tough job being a met. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 12 Moderators Share Posted February 12 Upton is catching on. Expanded the warning area. Put the rest into a watch for 5-8. Spoiler URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 303 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-122115- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/ Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 303 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. *ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts will depend on how quickly rain transitions over to snow. At this time, this looks to be around daybreak Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 12 Author Admin Share Posted February 12 GYX Quote After several model cycles that brought subsequential northward shifts in the track of the upcoming coastal system... the 00Z model suite has made a notable shift south. This is seen across global models and ensembles as well as mesoscale models. This southward shift has delayed the onset of snowfall with accumulating snowfall now likely to start around 12Z Tuesday along the NH/MA border. The southward shift also resulted in less QPF and snowfall across the area with the heaviest snowfall now focused south of the NH/MA border. The current forecast now brings 5 to 9 inches across the southern tier of zones in NH into far southern York County with locally higher amounts along the NH/MA border. The sharp south to north gradient in moisture has become even sharper with the latest guidance. Snow amounts now drop off to only a couple of inches from the Lakes region of NH towards Sebago Lake and little to no accumulation in the foothills and mountains. There continues to be a significant amount of convection occurring with this system now over the Gulf Coast and Southeast so there is lower than normal confidence in whether the current track continues to trend southward, stabilizes, or shifts back north. As the onset on snowfall has been delayed until around day break Tuesday and the potential for additional track shifts, have decided to hold onto the Winter Storm Watch for this forecast package. At this time the heaviest snow looks to occur from 9 AM to around 3 PM when the 00Z HREF shows high probabilities of snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour across southern NH in coastal York County. Snow will taper off from west to east Tuesday evening. In addition to the heavy snowfall rates, northeast winds gusting 25 to 30 mph across southern NH and coastal SW Maine will lead to reduced visibility in blowing snow. These Northeast winds along with tides coming off their astronomical peak today will also bring the threat for minor to moderate coastal flooding and have issued a coastal flood watch for the Tuesday afternoon high tide with more details in the Tides and Coastal Flood section below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T4NK Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter Storm Warning in North Jersey☃️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now