Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 20 minutes ago, TheComet said: Yes I was thinking of him (Carlos)! Formerly, or should I say, "originally" he was WhitePlains Blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Uscg Ast said: That hole has the best scotch. ST had the BEST Scotch - and he made it habit to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) similar to nam Edited February 11 by NEPAsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Baby G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Well to be fair, it's probably just me being AR about taking the time to get it right. Very little chance - in fact, I'd call it zero. That's the spirit. So called "Pro" forecasters supposed to be better than to be less than accurate. ESPECIALLY since they know that the world is reading and will correct where the AI Overlord "Auto Correct" fails. I am old school law student where what you write actually matters. ONE wrong word can skew an entire page/chapter of text. So yeah, I'm "that guy" and will NEVER apologize for being so. I'll jump into the fray here. To support Undertakerson - he can also shut off auto-correct. I have mine off, so all spelling errors are my own special creation and lack of proofreading. For a Pro, spell check should be an automatic, With that, I'm off to the kitchen to break in the new Belgian waffle maker the in-laws got us for Christmas. Malted Buttermilk Waffles anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: ST had the BEST Scotch - and he made it habit to do so. I believe this organization is on its way to being a 501(c)3 thanks to certain members (cough cough, I don't believe they want to be named? If I am wrong... Please lmk so I can post our thanks to you everywhere :)). A golf outing would be a GREAT way to raise money, especially if it's tax deductible 😉 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 NBM trended north a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: I believe this organization is on its way to being a 501(c)3 thanks to certain members (cough cough, I don't believe they want to be named? If I am wrong... Please lmk so I can post our thanks to you everywhere :)). A golf outing would be a GREAT way to raise money, especially if it's tax deductible 😉 Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley? It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets". And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Anthonyweather said: Baby G Well that's a huge difference from previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 14 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: IKEY is very much SOUTH after having lead the Northern march yesterday Pretty decent jump south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 1 minute ago, MainelySnow said: Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley? It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets". And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool. Right off my back yard is CC of Harrisburg. It has golf and sporting clays range. Too bad it's a private club Edited February 11 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, MainelySnow said: Since so many of you all are in the PA area, how about a clay shooting event at that place in Lehigh Valley? It's setup like a golf course with different "holes/targets". And the golf carts rigged out with gun racks is pretty cool. Neat idea. That could be pretty cool. @StretchCTYou gonna help me with setting up the insurance on this one? 😎 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Like RTC said yesterday - them there models like to go back to their ideas within 48 hours (paraphrased of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 Verification scores at 3 days. Interestingly the 12z GFS Ensemble mean is performing the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. Note - anyone just north of that transition line is gonna be pounded for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 11 Admin Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Neat idea. That could be pretty cool. @StretchCTYou gonna help me with setting up the insurance on this one? 😎 Side note - I am going to set up a thread for these ideas when I get back to my computer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Verification scores at 3 days. Interestingly the 12z GFS Ensemble mean is performing the best. was thinking about these the other day Does it not make sense that 12z outscores 00z? It's kind of like BlackJack - he who goes last wins most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Told RickRd yesterday afternoon, models were too warm , north for our area - 4-8 seemed a safe bet. Just made sense with the real track and colder air pouring in. Sometimes memory is the best forecaster. USGA nailed it- fresh vs. stale cold. The wind forecasts sure were a sign that this puppy would have some vigor. Now latest precipitation forecasts of over an inch may lead to higher amounts in the hills here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. Note - anyone just north of thst transition line is gonna be pounced for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind. HRRR kidna shows that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Told RickRd yesterday afternoon, models were too warm , north for our area - 4-8 seemed a safe bet. Just made sense with the real track and colder air pouring in. Sometimes memory is the best forecaster. USGA nailed it- fresh vs. stale cold. The wind forecasts sure were a sign that this puppy would have some vigor. Now latest precipitation forecasts of over an inch may lead to higher amounts in the hills here. Yes - that comment ranks right up there with the "better" analysis we (meaning collectively and not to mean myself included) bring to the fore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yuck. Current ocean temp 42. Was mid 30’s couple weeks ago. Closer to coast, hope you guys get a nudge south and east with track to keep the wind direction where you need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 11 Moderators Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) Early frame indicators of GFS show the SLP approx. 50-100mi S/E of modeled depiction of 6z (storm is still in the TN Valley) Hr 33 - that tendency continues with the SLP starting to climb latitude Hr 42 - SLP well S of 6z Edited February 11 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Early frame indicators of GFS show the SLP approx. 50-100mi S/E of modeled depiction of 6z (storm is still in the TN Valley) seems to be getting closer to a nuetral tilt and less positive? or is it related to confluence? Edited February 11 by NEPAsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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