TLChip Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: I would even take a SE ridge at this point. Just weird, this one is. Said no one ever on the EC. Bad juju, bad RTC. Edited January 30 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, TLChip said: Said no one ever on the EC. Bad juju, bad RTC. It can help at times. Think it wouldn’t help with this flat split flow?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 30 Admin Share Posted January 30 My old man is in the Virgin Islands, I'll be letting him know he's in on the "severe" side of this. I just don't see how it can get through that ridge. The anticyclonic wave breaking is out into the Atlantic, actually the central-Eastern Atlantic. So this system gets caught in the "wash". I think you'd need a miracle where the ridge doesn't break, and instead gets shoved up into Baffin Bay, but I feel I'm really reaching for something here. The Omega block looks like it morphs into a slow moving Rex configuration as everything drifts ready into the western Atlantic. Nothing else of note to track, so I'll be walking around, fingers crossed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 30 Admin Share Posted January 30 I actually think the models have a relatively good handle on this. It's not like we are talking about a phase, where there is energy that is kicking this out and could tend towards a phase. More or less, it's a single piece of energy in the form of a southern closed low that gets trapped under the ridge. I hope I'm wrong, but just how I see it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 30 Admin Share Posted January 30 East Asia. Look familiar? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 28 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: It can help at times. Think it wouldn’t help with this flat split flow?? Help it run right up the wrong side of the apps 🤣. I kid maybe a small SE ridge wouldn’t be bad, just not the one we meme’d to death last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 30 Moderators Share Posted January 30 Great stuff MJ Looking like we get more of -EPO structure by mid-month. See if maybe we can cash in on something in that timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 30 Admin Share Posted January 30 Hopefully it's doesn't last long, but right now the biggest impacts could be from a day or two of onshore winds along the GA-NC coastline. Astro tides aren't the highest, but not the lowest either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) Pretty decent shift over the past three Euro runs. From fully involved with the departing long wave - to cut off nearly altogether and waiting for a pick up line Another shift like that and it's a whole new ball of wax. Edited January 30 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 30 Admin Share Posted January 30 We don't have many SE posters, but the high country in GA,NC,SC, even extreme SW VA and Eastern TN might conjure something, so long at the ven diagram of moisture and above freezing 850s isn't a circle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: We don't have many SE posters, but the high country in GA,NC,SC, even extreme SW VA and Eastern TN might conjure something, so long at the ven diagram of moisture and above freezing 850s isn't a circle. Absolutely. I think they all melted away. Nobody south of me lately…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: We don't have many SE posters, but the high country in GA,NC,SC, even extreme SW VA and Eastern TN might conjure something, so long at the ven diagram of moisture and above freezing 850s isn't a circle. Wonder if I can talk the Mrs into going to our favorite Smokies Hideaway (just outside of Cherokee NC) for her b'day (which is between now and then) I could do in field reports from there. Any objections to seeing me in a hot tub? 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Wonder if I can talk the Mrs into going to our favorite Smokies Hideaway (just outside of Cherokee NC) for her b'day (which is between now and then) I could do in field reports from there. Any objections to seeing me in a hot tub? Reports no….. hot tub ? Need something to keep the mice out of the attic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) Upstream, another consideration of the forecast will be the precise latitude and speed of the upper low and associated surface system crossing the southern tier by Sunday and beyond. The 06Z GFS seemed to be most consistent with the other guidance compared to the farther east 00Z and now 12Z runs. Meanwhile the 00Z CMC was slightly on the slow side, while ECMWF runs appear to be a good middle ground, though the newer 12Z run may stray a bit south by Monday-Tuesday in the western Atlantic. What becomes of this system upon reaching the western Atlantic early next week is still somewhat uncertain given the spread and inconsistency for troughing to the north - WPC Edited January 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) Hard to get something to bite when the pac jet is just never ending pushing everything OTS before we can get going. You can see the next warmup right after this system coming, if I’m reading these maps right…I clipped the gif too early sorry. Edited January 30 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, TLChip said: Hard to get something to bite when the pac jet is just never ending pushing everything OTS before we can get going. You can see the next warmup right after this system coming, if I’m reading these maps right…I clipped the gif too early sorry. A comparison of the past three days of Euro Op runs - 300mb view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 300mb view. Is the 300 better to look at for jets? More trough there but winds are so close on both sides will it amp or lift out. First runs look more lift, last looks like it could amp up. FWIW google netted me this. Quote One of a forecaster's first thoughts when confronted with the 300/200 mb chart is the jet stream. The jet stream is a high velocity river of air that flows completely around the Earth at the mid-latitudes. During winter, the jet core is located generally closer to 300 millibars since the air is more cold and dense in the vicinity of the jet stream during the cool season. The 200 millibar chart is used for the jet stream in the warm season but either chart in most instances will suffice. Many hot air balloonists have tried to ride this river of air around the world with not much success for most. The river of air is not continuous. Embedded within the jet stream are higher velocity jet streaks. Jet streaks are segments of faster wind speed within the jet stream. Edited January 30 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 28 minutes ago, TLChip said: Is the 300 better to look at for jets? More trough there but winds are so close on both sides will it amp or lift out. First runs look more lift, last looks like it could amp up. Better, I know not. Just the way I've learned. The theory I learned was to look at 300mb in winter, 200 in summer. Tropical Tidbits splits the middle and offers 250mb. That is for steering jets of course, as there are "jets" at each level Using the utmost levels kind of simplifies matters - less detail but more over-arching perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, TLChip said: Hard to get something to bite when the pac jet is just never ending pushing everything OTS before we can get going. You can see the next warmup right after this system coming, if I’m reading these maps right…I clipped the gif too early sorry. RickRd and i were talking last night that we would to see some funding go do proper research into what is causing that never ending warm pool in the western Pacific. I have complained for almost a decade about the Pacific taking our lunch money and dominating our weather pattern overall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 59 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: RickRd and i were talking last night that we would to see some funding go do proper research into what is causing that never ending warm pool in the western Pacific. I have complained for almost a decade about the Pacific taking our lunch money and dominating our weather pattern overall. Underwater volcanoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Holds same for the day…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 34 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Underwater volcanoes That's Big Joe Bustardi talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 23 hours ago, Rickrd said: Yup. After 2/12 we should be better. Tracking again on 2/8. Until then. Enjoy the Brown landscape! 😜 At least we're not cutting grass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: Underwater volcanoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now