February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation

[Lazman]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

CMCE trend.. 

Imagine if those two ocean lows listened to Abbey Road and would Come Together? This forum would explode, but I digress.....

[George Acton]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

We have long cautioned against premature extrapolation. 

The ECMWF-initialized machine learning models that had initially been most aggressive with the Northeast troughing/low have also shifted eastward some, but their 12Z cycle still offers some potential for troughing to linger in more amplified form than most dynamical guidance by early next week. - WPC

Performing on a stool with a sight to make you drool, MJO in Phase 7 and a mule, keep it cool keep it cool. We'd like it to be known the exhibits of our show, are exclusively our own - all our own all our own. Come and see the showwwwwwwwwwww...... (Karn Evil 9 - ELP) 

Doorman has some stellar posts. He is the grand wizard!!

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Good Lord we need a big storm 😀. Guess i didn’t get the PM about free LSD being passed around here. Steaming piles of pool, carnivals, carnival videos, premature extrapolation, and wtf UT was talking about. I seldom know wtf UT is talking about. 
For the record, omega blocks fall just behind inverted troughs in the forecasting accuracy dartboard. 

[Snowadelphia]

4 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Good Lord we need a big storm 😀. Guess i didn’t get the PM about free LSD being passed around here. Steaming piles of pool, carnivals, carnival videos, premature extrapolation, and wtf UT was talking about. I seldom know wtf UT is talking about. 
For the record, omega blocks fall just behind inverted troughs in the forecasting accuracy dartboard. 

When was the record breaker up in the Lehigh Valley? Was that 2017? It was mainly rain down here but that's the last "big" one I remember around these parts. My in-laws got 3' I believe.
 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

2021 was the all-time bomb. RickRd and i were reminiscing about that one last week. 32.1 officially, and he had about 37. Started around noon Sunday and didn’t stop till Tuesday afternoon. Backend, wraparound snows at its finest. Warehouse fence got destroyed in the cleanup. 
An otherwise ho-him winter , and then that. This winter has that same eerie feel to it.

[StretchCT]

Spoiler

As has been the case over recent days, most guidance shares general themes for the large scale pattern but with some embedded spread and run-to-run adjustments. One notable trend over the past day has been for guidance to shift eastward somewhat for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes ridge and downstream trough/potential embedded upper low, with the latter now more likely settling over or near the Canadian Maritimes instead of New England. The ECMWF-initialized machine learning models that had initially been most aggressive with the Northeast troughing/low have also shifted eastward some, but their 12Z cycle still offers some potential for troughing to linger in more amplified form than most dynamical guidance by early next week. Meanwhile the guidance has been waffling for the precise latitude and speed of the upper low and associated surface system crossing the southern tier. Consensus of 12Z/18Z models and ensembles has returned back to where it was two days ago after drifting a little south for a time. The new 00Z GFS/UKMET stray on the faster and southern side of the spread. What becomes of this system upon reaching the western Atlantic early next week is still somewhat uncertain given the spread and inconsistency for troughing to the north.

WPC - surface and 500.  WPC narrative for the EC in the spoiler

 

Edited January 30 by StretchCT

[Undertakerson2.0]

34 minutes ago, George Acton said:

Doorman has some stellar posts. He is the grand wizard!!

Tommy-E and I go waaaaay back. Hoisted that rag to the devil and the deep blue more than once. The wizard that I know lets the people sing -Uriah Heep was but a Dickens antagonist. 

24 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Good Lord we need a big storm 😀. Guess i didn’t get the PM about free LSD being passed around here. Steaming piles of pool, carnivals, carnival videos, premature extrapolation, and wtf UT was talking about. I seldom know wtf UT is talking about. 
For the record, omega blocks fall just behind inverted troughs in the forecasting accuracy dartboard. 

That makes two of us - at times, even more. 

11 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

2021 was the all-time bomb. RickRd and i were reminiscing about that one last week. 32.1 officially, and he had about 37. Started around noon Sunday and didn’t stop till Tuesday afternoon. Backend, wraparound snows at its finest. Warehouse fence got destroyed in the cleanup. 
An otherwise ho-him winter , and then that. This winter has that same eerie feel to it.

I had no idea you got that whacked with that one. The Atown airport recorded a bit less at 27.5. I would have guessed the death bands of Jan2016 (31.9 at Atown)  would have topped that. But otherwise ho hum? Didn't it snow like 6 times that month? 

[telejunkie]

I got like 10" from that Groundhog Day storm...but man, what a great stretch of winter that was.

12z ICON showing the Cape Hatteras storm idea, providing snow for Smokies.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Tommy-E and I go waaaaay back. Hoisted that rag to the devil and the deep blue more than once. The wizard that I know lets the people sing -Uriah Heep was but a Dickens antagonist. 

That makes two of us - at times, even more. 

I had no idea you got that whacked with that one. The Atown airport recorded a bit less at 27.5. I would have guessed the death bands of Jan2016 (31.9 at Atown)  would have topped that. But otherwise ho hum? Didn't it snow like 6 times that month? 

ABE is notoriously bad with amounts. That being said , the airport is on a low spot at the very eastern end of Allentown. The areas around it are usually colder, and many have higher elevations, such as my spot in New Tripoli . I can’t remember specifically what happened after that one, and quite frankly after that one 3-4 inchers seem like flurries. I just recall that it wasn’t great snowfall wise before that 3 day bomb- the longest snowstorm i can recall. When you wake up to snow falling on the THIRD day, you know you’re screwed .

[GregRups]

12z ICON

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

ABE is notoriously bad with amounts. That being said , the airport is on a low spot at the very eastern end of Allentown. The areas around it are usually colder, and many have higher elevations, such as my spot in New Tripoli . I can’t remember specifically what happened after that one, and quite frankly after that one 3-4 inchers seem like flurries. I just recall that it wasn’t great snowfall wise before that 3 day bomb- the longest snowstorm i can recall. When you wake up to snow falling on the THIRD day, you know you’re screwed .

Yes - your winter up until then consisted of a very minor event in January. That's kind of like MDT (Harrisburg Airport) at <300'ASL and being directly beside the relatively warm waters of the Susquehanna - it is typically a low end total situation there too - with many in our region being NW of the 81 corridor. 

[PA road DAWG]

51 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

ABE is notoriously bad with amounts. That being said , the airport is on a low spot at the very eastern end of Allentown. The areas around it are usually colder, and many have higher elevations, such as my spot in New Tripoli . I can’t remember specifically what happened after that one, and quite frankly after that one 3-4 inchers seem like flurries. I just recall that it wasn’t great snowfall wise before that 3 day bomb- the longest snowstorm i can recall. When you wake up to snow falling on the THIRD day, you know you’re screwed .

It was def January of 2016.  Pretty sure it snowed for 24-36 hours in parts of SEPA

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

It was def January of 2016.  Pretty sure it snowed for 24-36 hours in parts of SEPA

Atwon recorded snow from 1/31 - 2/2/2021 - so just as long if not longer than '16

[NEPAsnow]

this looks promising

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Atwon recorded snow from 1/31 - 2/2/2021 - so just as long if not longer than '16

Don’t want to pollute this thread with reminiscing about prior bombs, but it is a little slow right now. The 2016 one UT early. That one was known for its veracity. Started Fri even, pretty much ended Sat eve. That was the one with ABE official 32.1, so averaged almost 1.5 per hour. 2021 had around same, but over much longer. Impossible to move that much snow off of business property without heavy equipment, which was hard to find.

You freaks can have those bombers. Hope you get one soon.  
 

[TLChip]

2021 was great because Feb was cold after 20” on the 1st, lots of fun sledding, snowball fights, pulling out a neighbors stuck truck. 
 

2016 was a bomb, I’ve yet to experience wind and snow like that besides on Mt Washington. My apartment building was creaking early sat AM. Extremely low vis most of the day. Maybe 96 would have gave it a run for its money but I was too young. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

28 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

this looks promising

I have several posts relating to how this aligns with "my" analog year of 1983. They are in the Seasonal Winter discussion

Edited January 30 by Undertakerson2.0

[Paletitsnow63]

Question.  What is keeping this from coming north the way it is currently modeled?  I assume the confluence between the HP & LP in SE Canada??

It is very extraordinary to see such a deep SLP off the GA coast in the dead of winter.  It makes you dream of a 975 MB coming up the coast. 😋

 

 

 

[TLChip]

I believe this is what steers it straight out. This is why some people would rather take chances with -NAO, it crams up the atl. 

[PA road DAWG]

8 minutes ago, Paletitsnow63 said:

Question.  What is keeping this from coming north the way it is currently modeled?  I assume the confluence between the HP & LP in SE Canada??

It is very extraordinary to see such a deep SLP off the GA coast in the dead of winter.  It makes you dream of a 975 MB coming up the coast. 😋

 

 

 

Murphy law bro.   What can go wrong will go wrong. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Paletitsnow63 said:

Question.  What is keeping this from coming north the way it is currently modeled?  I assume the confluence between the HP & LP in SE Canada??

It is very extraordinary to see such a deep SLP off the GA coast in the dead of winter.  It makes you dream of a 975 MB coming up the coast. 😋

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Don’t want to pollute this thread with reminiscing about prior bombs, but it is a little slow right now. The 2016 one UT early. That one was known for its veracity. Started Fri even, pretty much ended Sat eve. That was the one with ABE official 32.1, so averaged almost 1.5 per hour. 2021 had around same, but over much longer. Impossible to move that much snow off of business property without heavy equipment, which was hard to find.

You freaks can have those bombers. Hope you get one soon.  
 

Tie these two together - or attempt to. 

2016, just like this one, was a model fantasy hour storm in the LR. Then, the models ALL cooled to the idea - instead, shunting the frontal boundary way out to near Bernuda (at one extreme point), Then , the models, when within mesoscale model range - jumped back to the original notion PLUS. NAM was putting up high numbers which nobody believed but in retrospect were only slightly higher than verification. 

So, this one - I am stymied as to why the low up off the ME coast, which is close to 50/50 SHOULD be pulling not pushing the low in the SE. Usually, a confluence and 50/50 will lock in cold and NOT shunt the storm. In this case, it seems as if the 200-300mb level is driving the shunt - partly because of there not being a C ATL ridge to stop or deflect it. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Murphy law bro.   What can go wrong will go wrong. 

well that to. LOL

I call it NYC Suburbs law - a venerable OG poster who once said (paraphrased) "when I think about just how many things have to go perfectly right in order for a snowstorm - it's a miracle they ever happen at all". (or something very close to that sentiment) 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

Tie these two together - or attempt to. 

2016, just like this one, was a model fantasy hour storm in the LR. Then, the models ALL cooled to the idea - instead, shunting the frontal boundary way out to near Bernuda (at one extreme point), Then , the models, when within mesoscale model range - jumped back to the original notion PLUS. NAM was putting up high numbers which nobody believed but in retrospect were only slightly higher than verification. 

So, this one - I am stymied as to why the low up off the ME coast, which is close to 50/50 SHOULD be pulling not pushing the low in the SE. Usually, a confluence and 50/50 will lock in cold and NOT shunt the storm. In this case, it seems as if the 200-300mb level is driving the shunt - partly because of there not being a C ATL ridge to stop or deflect it. 

I would even take a SE ridge at this point. Just weird, this one is.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Sooo - if we look and compare say GFS to CMC - they both differ in how they treat the 50/50. The CMC pushes it away AND builds in a stronger High, the GFS lets it linger. 

While both miss Wide Right - the CMC is far closer to the coast than is the GFS. 

As RTC said, Omega Blocks are a bug a boo on level with IT's - to forecasting models. 

[Paletitsnow63]

7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Thanks for the answer.  I was also perplexed because of the great 50/50 setup and still the SLP is shunted.  Also, it really looks like it wants to try to come north.  It isn't immediately shunted OTS but sits off the SE coast and loops around for over a day.

 

Tie these two together - or attempt to. 

2016, just like this one, was a model fantasy hour storm in the LR. Then, the models ALL cooled to the idea - instead, shunting the frontal boundary way out to near Bernuda (at one extreme point), Then , the models, when within mesoscale model range - jumped back to the original notion PLUS. NAM was putting up high numbers which nobody believed but in retrospect were only slightly higher than verification. 

So, this one - I am stymied as to why the low up off the ME coast, which is close to 50/50 SHOULD be pulling not pushing the low in the SE. Usually, a confluence and 50/50 will lock in cold and NOT shunt the storm. In this case, it seems as if the 200-300mb level is driving the shunt - partly because of there not being a C ATL ridge to stop or deflect it.