Jump to content

February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation


Penn State

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

0z GFS. < 5% chance this has a chance to come close to Northeast USA. 

That moved much further south than 18z had it.  Maybe if we wait a few more runs, it will have circled the globe going from south to north and hit us?  🤪

  • LAUGH 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, clm said:

That moved much further south than 18z had it.  Maybe if we wait a few more runs, it will have circled the globe going from south to north and hit us?  🤪

 

IMG_8833.gif

  • SHOCKED 1
  • LAUGH 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As an fyi, and a warning, CMC is upgrading all models soon, and the RGEM( i don’t know if CMC product, thinking not) . 
Upgrades have worked really well the last few years, said no one ever. We might be back to caveman era. 
And give me a Neg NAO for $1000 please. Yea i know, we can make it without it, puke, puke, puke, but i can walk on one leg but i like having two. Block shit up, and then i will gladly deal with omg suppression page after page whines that end up not occurring 😀

  • SHOCKED 1
  • LAUGH 1
  • FIRE 1
  • WIND 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Gettysburger said:

Just clicked that link and woke my wife up. Wasn’t expecting that. That was loud! 😂😂😂

Me too.... Where's the warning??? ⚠️

  • LIKE 1
  • LAUGH 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW 

Sterling’s thoughts…

yes this looks  south but same change could affect Southern Mid Atlantic. 
 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper trough and associated, mostly dry, cold front move
east of the area by Friday morning. Beyond this, confidence in
the extended forecast remains low at this time. Canadian high
pressure builds south into the region over the weekend and early
next week. The current model consensus is that this prevents a
large cutoff upper low and surface area of low pressure over the
Southeast U.S. from impacting our area. However, even a small
shift in location and/or intensity of any synoptic feature could
result in a very different outcome than what models currently
depict. Continue to monitor as the week progresses. Highs Friday
into the weekend in the mid 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows
in the 20s to lower 30s.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Doorman said:

d7500wbg.gif.a0b2705f43c8ae4f159c874667b137ac.gif

Alex..... I will take extrapolation for 1000 please

 

sfc.png.b8032a424539e45f456edd46905e367e.png

dm---- the carnival barker

step right up!!!!   🎩

 

 

Quote

Alex..... I will take extrapolation for 1000 please

We have long cautioned against premature extrapolation. 

The ECMWF-initialized machine learning models that had initially been most aggressive with the Northeast troughing/low have also shifted eastward some, but their 12Z cycle still offers some potential for troughing to linger in more amplified form than most dynamical guidance by early next week. - WPC

Performing on a stool with a sight to make you drool, MJO in Phase 7 and a mule, keep it cool keep it cool. We'd like it to be known the exhibits of our show, are exclusively our own - all our own all our own. Come and see the showwwwwwwwwwww...... (Karn Evil 9 - ELP) 

  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Social Media Crew

Well.. This steaming pile of poo has a clear trend on the GEFS. A little cluster of members well to the north too. 

trend-gefsens-2024013006-f168.sfcmslp-meanmem_na.gif.d879d09790b6537ecc1067601392c30f.gif

Edited by Penn State
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Social Media Crew

The Canadian ensembles were the only ones to show this from what I can tell.. but the point of this is to highlight the area that would be most likely to see snow if this were to decide to be something, as unlikely as that is. The GEFS was much smaller, further south. 

floop-cmceens-2024013000.snodpc_006h-mean-imp.conus.gif.9ff2c1b1da9d82e1edfbfa3adc1b66ec.gif

Edited by Penn State
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...