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February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation


Penn State

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2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I only ever see the Google AI posted, is it considered the "best"?  ECMWF has their own in house, the. AIFS, and then there 3 other machine learning systems. All 0z runs. 

20240128185222-8a711efe7ab04325ac359119a5233cb4352cd699.thumb.png.e1f7a686ccb6732673ac4918dfbb2c05.png

 

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You know.. that’s an area in which I don’t have much expertise. I’ve always used the Graph Cast version because it’s the link I have saved in my notes lol 

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18z is OTS.. With that being said, if things can trend a bit further west with driving feature to the north, the possibility is still alive. floop-gfs-2024012818.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.c06d2cb8141b792da5b2d15ff2c40af0.gif

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0z GFS actually looks better. Still not a hit for east coast, but at least LP is shown riding up the coast and not going OTS. Only problem is she’s about 350 miles too far east. 🥴

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From LWX regarding this period.

 

The overall upper-level pattern across the country does become
much more amplified during this period, with a strong Omega
block developing across the center of the country. Some guidance
collapses this blocking towards the end of the weekend and
especially into Monday, but trying to pinpoint that this far out
is very difficult. Just something to watch at this point.
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Hope lies eternal in the hearts of the hopeless. I know this is off topic, but Weather Underground has returned from the future to display two days of snow on Feb. 15-16.  It's on their calendar display.  

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I feel like its the accuweather days 10 years ago where I'm sitting in HS class rooting for 500 mile northwest shift. Sometimes it did happen! Baby steps.

 

Hopefully 12z is a step in the right direction. 

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8 minutes ago, clm said:

Did GFS lose the storm?  Shows nothing going through 4th to 6th.

 

image.thumb.gif.113c3f2e27116885e0c60183718519a4.gif

its 100% there. Slower and it literally shows it raining in NC on this run. The last 6 or so GFS runs have had this storm going south. It has crept up a bit but the warm air seems to be pushing north as well

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22 minutes ago, GregRups said:

I feel like its the accuweather days 10 years ago where I'm sitting in HS class rooting for 500 mile northwest shift

Dang! Hit me right in the feels! Those were the days. Once that big daddy hat came out, jinxed.

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 Well there were  signs of suppression yesterday. However nothing is in stone. You know this is fantasy time?  Every thing  can and will change. At this point be glad storm is showing,  The  track, type , and amount is all to be determined. 

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