Jump to content

February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation


Penn State

Recommended Posts

Sterlings says ……Nothing to see ….

 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave-trough will drop southward on backside of deep cutoff low
over the NW Atlantic Monday night. This will result in very little
sensible weather other than to keep temps on the chilly side
Tuesday. Afterwards, upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and western
Great Lks is expected to drift eastward toward the Atlantic coast
during the middle and second half of the week promoting a warming
trend. Temperatures are expected to approach 60F by week`s end. The
ridge axis is expected to shift offshore by next Fri allowing some
moisture return into the area increasing the chances of a few
showers ahead of a weak cold front.

&&
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin

I can see the humor here has been... above reproach...

Anywho. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-global-northernhemi-08-10_30Z-20240202_map_noBar-29-6n-10-100.thumb.gif.efa0ecf6de8716e67c3743106dfb804c.gif

pg3hqzo.gif.90cfb5bc1d71ed2fa4fcc419579af026.gif

On 1/27/2024 at 2:12 PM, MaineJay said:

Does it happen over the Eastern CONUS or Western Atlantic is the question.

ezgif-7-f59009a470.thumb.gif.57a909d02da89c724e892bc0f79cc5c5.gif

 

On 1/27/2024 at 8:13 PM, MaineJay said:

How the central NOAM ridge builds, and potentially breaks, closed low undercutting, then according to the particularly fun ECMWF, these features try to square off in a kind of "immovable object v. Irresistible force" collision.  I count roughly 2/3rds of the GEFS members had that undercutting low.  I think we need to consider a solution where it drifts a little far east and then some kind of looping. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh132-240(1).thumb.gif.a2d275a8c318cb3367137a99bba7201e.gif

  RE: Looping. It is one of those things that models do much more than reality.  Yes, we do on occasion see loops, but often they are more of a pause, or even just an elongation. 

  An interesting array of meteorological features to talk about.   

 

  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Doorman said:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/gefs/gefs.html

sg.thumb.png.424da3be068fe25aefaeb33a647f8320.png

use the link  -scroll thru the forecast hrs.

out of the box guidance  gives us an alternate look at the big picture for this system

 

so close yet so far---------we keep tracking

dm

 

Frankie Valli storm..... https://youtu.be/vYtpKBNTCB8?si=NQmisLbfcbKVhOxI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those of you that don’t remember, DM has an incredible array of toys available. He’s right you know! Loop that sucker. It just lingers forever. Ain’t that far away either. Seems to favor areas that stick out in the ocean more. Somehow, it almost gets near a benchmark track.

  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

For those of you that don’t remember, DM has an incredible array of toys available. He’s right you know! Loop that sucker. It just lingers forever. Ain’t that far away either. Seems to favor areas that stick out in the ocean more. Somehow, it almost gets near a benchmark track.

image.thumb.png.d0ce659f3088d2c889fa9491dcc204eb.png

  • LAUGH 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS trends

image.gif.29dee1c3a9cb530ccf587ba1e13f8dc5.gif
 

at least DM is here bringing some different info besides our 4-day out model trends that have done… so well this year….

Edited by TLChip
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Sing it Frankie!!

 

My eyes adored you. Though I never laid a hand on you, my eyes adored you. Like a million miles away from me you didn't see how I adored you...

 

trend-ecmwf_full-2024020212-f120.500hv.na.gif

Now I was thinking of another Frank  and Strangers  in the Night. 

Edited by Wtkidz
  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sterling’s stale tidbits…

warmth coming… 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looking ahead to the upcoming work week, the period will consist of
mainly dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and a warming trend late in
the week. On the synoptic scale, a blocky pattern is in place as a
series of closed upper features are prevalent. Most notably, this
includes a slow moving upper low tracking along the Gulf Coast, an
expansive ridge extending eastward from the Midwest, and a closed
low near Newfoundland. The net result of these multitude of features
will be the building of heights as the upstream ridge shifts focus
toward the Eastern Seaboard.

While the week will start off on the seasonably cool side, expect
the return flow around the exiting surface anticyclone to lift
temperatures back up into the 50s by Wednesday. Global ensembles are
in fairly good in agreement in this dry setup and increasing warmth
late in the week. Looking out to next Friday, some low 60s
temperatures could push back into the area. This is all ahead of the
next approaching weather maker. The latest forecast places the
surface cold front out near the Mississippi River next Friday
morning. Given its westward position, additional mild weather is
certainly looking likely into portions of the following weekend.
However, this increase in warmth, moisture, and frontal lift will re-
introduce rain and clouds back into the forecast by late in the work
week.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...