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February 5-8, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation


Penn State

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Two 525 ULLs. The one further east is a combo of the trough moving through the NE Fri/Sat and and some added energy dumping in. The one to the west is a third delivery of energy dumping in

image.png.52222953433e04156800f42fd9e56649.png

Once that third parcel is delivered, it gets stretched out with some going into the existing 522 low and another piece heading west over the TriState. 

Wonder if the ULL off the SE is influencing that...

image.png.233edcaef5a0fbbc26b4462ff0630848.png

That becomes a baby 537 low, I suppose similar (or the exact) to what UTS was saying.

image.png.5aef60d0c5dcbbf1e51d08d761b8331b.png

Which then pulls the southern ULL up. And they do their rituals, spin around a lot. Become one.

image.thumb.png.a1c360394a35de8933c4e70f95ce4c30.png

While the "parent" northern low heads off into the sunrise and Europe

image.png.7d0c0ab8bbf2d395fd81810a7f19fd79.png

And it sits there for a while absorbing additional lows through the remainder of the run

image.thumb.png.2d82b3550be2d6d89887b7aac66bde91.png

 

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Just now, Doorman said:

Feb 6th B-day  - All  Left Handed

True

------------

Nice write ups this morning UT....

premature extrapolation aside  LMAO 

All  Left Handed

Another tie in to step dad - he was taught to write right handed by some twisted minds of the American edumacational system - but as a mechanic, marksman, pool shooter etc - he did everything left handed (he also could play piano by ear). 

My first wife was also Aquarian - she did not prove her mettle. Talk about premature extrapolation (or was premature extrication? I can never keep those two straight)

My current wife is also Aquarian and I would be so much less w/o her (it was she who told me I should start visiting weather forum pages all these many moons ago). 

 

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5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

All  Left Handed

Another tie in to step dad - he was taught to write right handed by some twisted minds of the American edumacational system - but as a mechanic, marksman, pool shooter etc - he did everything left handed (he also could play piano by ear). 

My first wife was also Aquarian - she did not prove her mettle. Talk about premature extrapolation (or was premature extrication? I can never keep those two straight)

My current wife is also Aquarian and I would be so much less w/o her (it was she who told me I should start visiting weather forum pages all these many moons ago). 

 

It's the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.....

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11 minutes ago, Lazman said:

Called it yesterday, pun intended.....I'll see myself out. 

Screenshot_20240131-122139.png

{blatant} patting yourself on the back

mods give him a demerit badge ASAP  🎱

 

 

5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

get me Ringo on the phone

Edited by Doorman
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12 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

NN (cool talk for Neg NAO) coming gang. Keep the faith. And where we want it. Wood city. And when it comes, i shall be even more annoying than i already am, if that is even possible 😎. No planes or ships will he allowed too far north. Phasing works actually. Storms move slower. Pretty millibar looks. Region wide opportunities . Suppression whines plentiful. Serious cutoffs. Backend snows. UT posts actually making sense. Late kicker vorts that always miss the kick. NAM goal post moving out of its sweet spot needle posts will abound. MJ giving one of his dendrite posts that no one fackin understands . Endless “ big ones always move north” posts. Clap brings back the legendary Clapper Tracker. PARD is positive , happy, content , and hasn’t cuffed the entire state. RT dusts off old, old speedo. Pimple ass, fat, sweaty SE ridge stuffed in the cooler. 
NEG NAO utopia baby!! Haven’t had one when we wanted it in years. 

Been hearing from you and UTS how things get better mid February for us.  Take a peek at the 12Z GFS for the Monday morning after the Superbowl and then again 2-1/2 days later.  That second full week of February time frame looks very active.

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1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Boston needs it TBH

Uh, no. We're good. There's still snow on the lawn.  Like a half inch but it's still white-ish.

Would be a crazy system though.  At least something to keep an eye on.

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4 minutes ago, BossaNova said:

Uh, no. We're good. There's still snow on the lawn.  Like a half inch but it's still white-ish.

Would be a crazy system though.  At least something to keep an eye on.

Emphasis on the "ish" part.

You are some 14" behind your seasonal average - 

20240131_113403.jpg

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30 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Emphasis on the "ish" part.

You are some 14" behind your seasonal average -

This is true. Like much of the Northeast, these systems have been marginal, wet snow/rain and that's even more true at Logan where the official numbers are from.  But to give it some context, 45 miles west of there in Worcester, they are at 31". Only 4.3" off average.

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30 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Graphcast so far the only AI with an ULL off the coast.  Doesn't translate to surface low

image.thumb.png.7f04947cf9da8afe661f80990e55e237.png

image.thumb.png.a2b8d106d4cf4944406f6cd55b41551b.png

 

If you use this to save the image, you'll retain the legend and model info.  

Screenshot_20240121-033712.thumb.png.3d36d3d615705fa490c99801b2a5d2f7.png

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6 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

If you use this to save the image, you'll retain the legend and model info.  

Screenshot_20240121-033712.thumb.png.3d36d3d615705fa490c99801b2a5d2f7.png

Huh, I'll try that at home. But I thought it just gave you the picture without the legend. 

Work laptop only allows me to cut and paste.  Can't upload any files. 

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5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Huh, I'll try that at home. But I thought it just gave you the picture without the legend. 

Work laptop only allows me to cut and paste.  Can't upload any files. 

This is what I get. Posted the Nvidia for variety

20240131201407-f075bc195a634bc85eba8c623d07147582f6ac00.thumb.png.81332b45809099c1ce61df425c0c4e02.png

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LWX  current thoughts 

A strong cutoff low will track across the deep south on Sunday and
into Monday, bringing unsettled conditions across the Gulf Coast and
areas north into the Carolinas. For now, model guidance has
continued to hint at areas further north remaining dry during this
period with the low suppressed further south and the high continuing
to influence the region to the north. Some overrunning precipitation
may be possible Monday into Tuesday if a cold air damming wedge
develops across the area, especially if the surface low tracks
further north. Although, guidance continues to lean on a drier
output. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to mid 40s for
most areas with elevated winds out of the northeast.

 

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Feel free to pull the post 

  data extension for clarity.. 7:00pm DST pm on Feb 7th 

thanks  

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html

spag_f192_usbg.thumb.gif.1cf452239345cac2643372c62fbc74d5.gifprec_f192_usbg.thumb.gif.ebaf976a80f5c8b7d0f825a3838a4806.gif

 

 BIG storm signal right here---- BIG------

Surface reflections will catch up   IMHO

Cut off low at 500 mb is part of the puzzle that, if they snap into place the Northeast is in for a ride!!

dm

Edited by Doorman
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6 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

All  Left Handed

Another tie in to step dad - he was taught to write right handed by some twisted minds of the American edumacational system - but as a mechanic, marksman, pool shooter etc - he did everything left handed (he also could play piano by ear). 

My first wife was also Aquarian - she did not prove her mettle. Talk about premature extrapolation (or was premature extrication? I can never keep those two straight)

My current wife is also Aquarian and I would be so much less w/o her (it was she who told me I should start visiting weather forum pages all these many moons ago). 

 

This is harder to dissect than your old “caveman” drawings of vorts that started in n’western Canada. I tried following them till about the Pac northwest and then passed the fack out from dizziness. 
Now red headed step son 50/50’s? 
And  now DM is being positive about potential snow events? He used to hate snow. 

what alternate world are we living in? 

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Quote

And  now DM is being positive about potential snow events? He used to hate snow. 

what alternate world are we living in? 

Easy now Richard......just figure I need to draw a crowd and rebuild my fan base  LMFAO

let the crew munch on this  

5dayfcst500diff_wbg.thumb.gif.c0ff376a9aeb05fed61499688388b083.gif

in the last frame

tuck the Atlantic  L under the circle above it----  for benchmark Bombogenesis

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500diff_wbg.gif

 

  

 

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